• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Martin's Second-Fav System

MartinK

Filly
This system targets second-favourites as shown on Oddschecker at around 10.45am, when I hope that the morning market has settled.

Reason for 2nd-favs: my theory is that they mostly give reasonable value. This is based on the assumption that first favourites start on the market at below their true odds, to reflect their likely popularity, while non-fav odds gain a small boost to reflect their lesser popularity.

Although prices regularly shift, my theory is that the fav will stay slightly under-valued most of the time, while the remaining runners will stay over-valued.

I’ve focused on 2nd-favs rather than 3rd or 4th favs in order to keep losing runs to a psychologically manageable level.

Here are some other of the system rules:

1. 7 to 12 runners only.

2. Handicaps only.

3. No 3yo-only races (my personal experience is that they can be bad betting mediums).

4. No races below class 4 (too unreliable for me).

5. No class 3 races. I don't know why, but my results with other systems have suffered in class 3 races.

6. No all-weather contests – I find them less reliable than turf.

Those rules create a shortlist of about 6 or 7 second-favs. That’s a manageable number to study in depth, and come up with around 2 bets a day which I consider strong. We shall see!

I’ll post tomorrow’s (Monday’s) bets at around 11.20am.

Any questions, please ask. Criticism welcome!
 

dave58

Administrator
Good luck with this MartinK MartinK , interesting idea there and similar to something that I was looking at ages ago.
I can't bet with the mainstream bookies any more so I can't do this, but may I suggest that you look at putting your selections in each way doubles?
The logic is yours, so I will leave it with you, and I am just trying to expand it, but it's just that your expected win/place rate might make this a profitable approach.
Best of luck anyway, and thanks for sharing
 

MartinK

Filly
Good luck with this MartinK MartinK , interesting idea there and similar to something that I was looking at ages ago.
I can't bet with the mainstream bookies any more so I can't do this, but may I suggest that you look at putting your selections in each way doubles?
The logic is yours, so I will leave it with you, and I am just trying to expand it, but it's just that your expected win/place rate might make this a profitable approach.
Best of luck anyway, and thanks for sharing
Hi Dave, thanks for your e/w doubles suggestion. I'll keep an eye on this possibility re. prices and how many times selections gain a place. With your own betting, I guess you use BF Ex. Do you find that their better-than-bookie early prices compensate for the occasional BOG drifter?
 

MartinK

Filly
Warwick 1.45 Kabrit, 11-4
Leicester 2.35 Sycamore, 3-1
Hamilton 3.25 Wade's Magic, 10-3
(odds as per Oddschecker at 10.50am)

You'll see that these are all class 5, contrary to my own rules. Reason: odds of the 3rd fav is double (or more than double) the 2nd fav, making it a strong enough bet to overcome the class weakness. Sorry, I forgot to mention this "rule" yesterday!
 

dave58

Administrator
Hi MartinK MartinK , yes I use betfair now. I can't say I have compared the prices to bog, it's just that I was getting too much hassle from the mainstream bookies.
 

MartinK

Filly
Warwick 1.45 Kabrit, 11-4 ... 5th
Leicester 2.35 Sycamore, 3-1 ... 5th
Hamilton 3.25 Wade's Magic, 10-3 ... 3rd

DAY 1: minus 3 points :(
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
Hi MartinK MartinK
The forum is trying to send you emails when someone replies to this thread but they are bouncing.
The error says that the email is not valid. Could you please check the email listed in your profile and update it if you wish to continue to receive alerts?

AR
 

MartinK

Filly
Hi MartinK MartinK
The forum is trying to send you emails when someone replies to this thread but they are bouncing.
The error says that the email is not valid. Could you please check the email listed in your profile and update it if you wish to continue to receive alerts?

AR
Hi Ark, fixed now.
 

MartinK

Filly
Perth 4.15 Jarveys Plate, 5-2 ... 3rd

DAY 2: minus 1 point
RUNNING TOTAL: minus 4 points

AMENDMENT TO RULES: I'm now including non-handicap races AND all-weather contests. Reason: I've trawled back through 4 months of data and find that there's a small profit to gain from both race types under certain circumstances.
 

MartinK

Filly
Newmarket 2.25 Betsey Trotter, 4-1 ... 7th
Perth 5.10 Craigmor, 11-4 ... 5th

DAY 3: minus 2 points
RUNNING TOTAL: minus 6 points
 

MartinK

Filly
Uttoxeter 2.35 Henrietta Bell, 5-1 ... 8th
Haydock 5.05 Imperium, 3-1 ... 3rd

DAY 4: minus 2 points
RUNNING TOTAL: minus 8 points
 

MartinK

Filly
Haydock 2.05 Alternative Fact, 9-2 ... 2nd
Market Rasen 2.45 Marine One, 6-1 ... 1st 5-1 ... 5 pts profit
... ... Marine One was 6-1 with 2 bookies before I posted but, as soon as I hit the "post" button, the price fell to 5-1 and never recovered. Therefore I'm recording this winner at 5-1.
Listowel 2.50 So Near So Farhh, 11-4 ... 5th

DAY 5: plus 3 pts
RUNNING TOTAL: minus 5 pts
 
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