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Martingale. Does It Worth?

Hi guys is there anyone knowing anything about Martingale strategy? I'm new on it and i'd like to start to use it in online roulettes. Do u think that it worth trying using it if my budget is roughly 2k£? I found a guide and they say it's better not to use it; but i have friends who won real money thanks to that.
Can anyone giving me any further info about? Thanks very much =D
 
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Hi Steve, welcome to the forum.
Unfortunately the answer to your question is no, in the long run the strategy does not work.
I shall leave others to go through the maths, but maybe the best way to convince you is the fact that everyone in the gambling community is probably aware of it and yet online casinos continue to make millions.
Sorry to burst your bubble but have a look around the forum and you'll hopefully find something that interests you, and a better way to invest your money
 
Hi guys is there anyone knowing anything about Martingale strategy? I'm new on it and i'd like to start to use it in online roulettes. Do u think that it worth trying using it if my budget is roughly 2k£? I found a guide and they say it's better not to use it; but i have friends who won real money thanks to that.
Can anyone giving me any further info about? Thanks very much =D

As dave58 dave58 says it's not a good idea, there's 2 main reasons why it won't work long term:

1-Any staking system on its own won't make money over time without some form of edge in the market, a staking plan on its own doesn't give you one.

2-Your bets will get very large very quickly if you hit any kind of losing run, which is possible even betting at short odds-Gavin Priestley goes into a good level of detail on staking plans including Martingale here (with a roulette example) which could very easily wipe you out:

Staking systems – Nag-Nag-Nag

Don't play online roulette (or regular casino roulette unless you're very good at cheating!) there is a fixed house advantage that you can't overcome-it's not a game of skill, unlike sports betting which can be. If it was possible to make a good, long term profit on online casinos using a Martingale strategy there would be some very skint bookmakers out there ;)
 

The Paroli System​

The Paroli system is one of the most popular systems, and also one of the simplest. The idea is that you first set yourself a base stake, and that’s how much you stake on your initial wager. Every time you win a wager, you increase your stake by the amount of your base stake. Every time you lose, you go back to staking your base stake. So let’s say you decided to play roulette using this system, betting on black each time and starting with a base stake of 1 point. You’d follow these simple rules.
  • Wheel lands on black. Increase stake by 1point for next wager.
  • Wheel lands on red. Stake 1 point for next wager.
  • Wheel lands on zero. Stake 1 point for next wager.
(If you want to play for 'fun' in a casino you could try a version of the above playing an even money chance and stop when you are ahead:-
Try for a positive winning progression treble and start again to continue, remember to return to a 1 pt stake after losing.)
 
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This is the mathematical proofing i did in another post - you only need to concentrate on the last two parts bolded in blue , although you need to do the algebra and calculus to get there through reduction. It's not even a zero-sum system but a negative-sum system.


So the mathematical proof that these type of "staking systems" don't work, will never work and have you attending GA meetings twice a week reciting the 12 steps or worse staying in a cardboard box and looking for safe-spots at night.....is such

b_k = bet value at the kth level
p_k = probability that series terminates with a win at the kth level, having been preceded by k-1 losses in a row
n - 1 = greatest number of losses in a row that can be sustained
e = player's expectation

e = + p_1b_1 + p_2(b_2 - b_1) + p_3(b_3 - b_2 - b_1) +...
+ p_n(b_n - b_(n-1) - ... - b_1)
+ (1 - p_1 - p_2-...
- p_n)(-b_n - b_(n-1) - ... - b_1)

The terms on the first line represent products of the probability that the series will terminate with a win at each successive level times the net profit at that level. The term on the third line gives the product of the probability that the series ends in failure at the nth level times the net loss.

regroup the terms:

e = 2p_1b_1 + (2p_2 + p_1)b_2 + (2p_3 + p_2 + p_1)b_3 + ...
+ (2p_n + p_(n-1) + ... + p_2 + p_1)b_n
- (b_1 + b_2 + ... + b_(n-1) + b_n)

p_k = (1 - p)^(k-1)p, where p is the probability of a win on any individual play and 1 - p is the probability of a loss.

substituting:

e = [2p]b_1 + [2p(1 - p) + p]b_2 + [2p(1 - p)^2 + p(1 - p) + p]b_3 + ...
+ [2p(1 - p)^(n-1) + p(1 - p)^(n-2) + ... + p(1 - p)^2 + p(1 - p)^1
+ p(1 - p)^0]b_n - (b_1 + b_2 + ... b_(n-1) + b_n)

factor out p so that the kth term is rewritten as:

p[(1 - p)^(k-1) + (1 - p)^(k-1) + (1 - p)^(k-2) + ... + (1 - p)^2
+ (1 - p)^1 + (1 - p)^0]b_k

use the formula for the sum of a geometric series and rewrite the kth term:

p[(1 - p)^(k-1) + (((1 - p)^k - 1)/((1 - p) - 1))]b_k
= [(2p - 1)(1 - p)^(k-1) + 1]b_k

e = sum_{k = 1}^{n} [2p - 1)(1 - p)^(k-1) + 1]b_k - sum_{k = 1}^{n} b_k
e = sum_{k = 1}^{n} [2p - 1)(1 - p)^(k-1)b_k + sum_{k = 1}^{n} b_k - sum_{k = 1}^{n} b_k

cancel the last two summations and factor out (2p - 1):

e = (2p - 1) sum_{k = 1}^{n} (1 - p)^(k-1)b_k

Since (1 - p) is positive and b_k is positive, the summation is positive. Therefore, the sign of e depends on the sign of (2p - 1). In an even-payoff unfair game, p < .5 and (2p - 1) is negative. In a fair game, p = .5 and (2p - 1) = 0.

Simplified these type of staking systems don't work and never will - there used to be an old saying that over a series of bets, if that series does not show a long term profit to either level or proportionate stakes (betting to win a fixed amount determined by the probability/odds of bet struck) - any other type of staking system is doomed - im excluding the Kelly Criterion method here which works through +EV and can be used full or fractional , only reason im excluding it is you need a probability distribution pre-race so that you can calculate "edge - most punters don't use probability distributions.
 
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