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Luke's Ratings/Starting Price Predictions

LukeyBoy

Yearling
Good Morning,
Just a sheet for a little idea/test of mine.If we say that a Horse's true chance is at BFSP surely there must be some logic in trying to estimate it?
The idea is to try and use it and develop it to some sort of trading strategy or something or just as a good old fashion backing strategy.
The data has been collected purely from HRB to get the estimates.Obviously in the case of non-runners the ratings will need to be normalised back to a 100% book.
I'm still gathering more data and refining it but this is my first attempt.
 

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Interesting. How often do you intend to update the predicted price throughout the day?
Hi mate.The sheet is only based on what I can download from HRB in the morning (not sure if forecast data or bookies odds are used).
Obviously the closer I can update to the off the stronger the correlation.For the moment it's purely take what's available to me in the morning and see how close(or not!) it's been.
Still plenty of ideas and learning to do and pretty sure it can be improved.
The sheet is easy to use with Gruss/Betfair so anyone using that can easily compare.
Only problem with the sheet is the non-runner thing and normalising back to 100 might throw everything.
 
Todays attempt.Extra column for another Price Pred this is based on the live data from when testing started (Yesterday!) as time goes on that will get more accurate as I have more data from the forecast price.
 

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I've had a play with tissue prices myself. I'm also working on something based off HRB data myself and once I think its up to sharing I'll post. Best of luck.
Funnily enough I had seen your Tissue prices thread before and went to try and find it when I posted mine but couldn't.
Impressive work mate love to see what you come up with in the future.
 
Today's sheet.I'll post something up at 11-midday (If I remember) and use the BF prices available at the time instead of the Forecast prices and see the difference.
-----------------------
Added sheet that adjust things the best I could at 11am and updated the Pred BFSP.I'll add the actual BFSP's when I have them and compare.
 

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  • 11AMTEST.xlsx
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Funnily enough I had seen your Tissue prices thread before and went to try and find it when I posted mine but couldn't.
This one?

 
This one?

Yeah that's the boy found it earlier via his profile thanks none the less ArkRoyal ArkRoyal
 
Todays 19/08/2020 Tried to iron a out a massive flaw as in the model is tested on SP data and I only ever have forecast data so I've gone through the system builder on HRB as tried to sort out some link between forecast and SP and apply it to the sheet daily.
 

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LukeyBoy LukeyBoy I've used HRB to take the last 1,000 ten runner AW handicaps, and I find that the SP compared to BFSPs are broadly these. In short an even money shot would have the BFSP of 2.12.

1597843280243.png

I'm with the idea of trying to gauge BFSP as its close to a 100% book so my take on the 4:20 at York (admittedly not AW but principle the same) is this:

1597843695283.png

One of the second, third and fourth gets backed in late and that whole book then goes out of the window doesn't it?
Can we guess what horses are going to possibly get the late money that affects the BFSP?
 
4.20 York%PriceValue
Dancin Inthestreet
0.302371​
3.30720056​
Dancin Inthestreet
Pink Sands
0.107194​
9.328910913​
Keep Busy
0.148078​
6.753183771​
Keep Busy
Sampers Seven
0.132752​
7.532820551​
Sampers Seven
Lady In France
0.03355​
29.80655522​
Glamorous Anna
0.075915​
13.17265698​
Glamorous Anna
Dandys Beano
0.049802​
20.07943518​
Free Love
0.095007​
10.52556063​
Free Love
Our Little Pony
0.027107​
36.89101974​
Mighty Spirit
0.028225​
35.4299143​
 
=(0.9704*(SP_Odds%)+ (-0.01428)
If you're looking for a general fit for SP-->BFSP then the above formula is OK.I've got a better version or 3 but that one is sweet and simple.
(SP_Odds) is 1/(odds+1)
 
I've cut it down to one Rating now.I used the sheet yesterday to concentrate on Top Rated runners and ones where my win % was greater then Betfair (perceived value) and my results were good.
So I think the way I'm going forward is the sheet is more of a Rating used to highlight overlays and top rated horses.I'll post up the BFSP's and results from todays sheet tonight and see how they got on.
Based on the model it says if horse has X,Y,Z ratings then this is kind of the Win% chance it should have based on past ratings and BFSP.
 

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Been away for a week but continued to collect results and things.
Someone rather kindly provided me Press forecast data for over a years worth of races so If tried to build that in the model and (on paper) it's improved some of the accuracy. So here are ratings for today.
These are my first attempts and building ratings with Neural Networks don't fully understand them..but I can get an output so that's all that I'm worried about!
 

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