• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
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    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
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    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

LTD and 2-1??

JamesNich

Filly
Hi All,

Hope you are all OK. I was on the previous forum, but have been so busy the last few months I didn’t post anything on there for ages and I have not had time to post/read anything on here until the last couple of days. Blame it on work and an ancient PC at home! That said hopefully things are easing off a little. Anyway enough of the boring shit and on to some more err, shit….. :)

Probably my favourite trading/betting call it what you will is as above the LTD in football.
I know the odds do not shoot up significantly like they used to and match selection is obviously crucial, but with so much football on these days and Betfair covering so may leagues there is always an opportunity to be had on a given day, assuming there is enough liquidity in the market. Hopefully I’ll post some selections up soon and my reasoning behind why I chose them (told you it was boring).

Has anyone tried trading across markets in football matches? I have just read a thread on here that seems to do a few markets at once. I’ll go over that again in the next few days to try and get a clearer picture. :? I read somewhere, it may have been a book Bobajobber posted on the ‘old’ forum where you back the Full Time score of 2-1 in the Correct Score market, but only doing the 2-1 score on the favourite team. This is in conjunction with a LTD on the same game. That way if the dog does score first although the LTD odds may deteriorate the 2-1 Correct Score may lower and you can trade out of that 2-1 back bet? (All depending on the time of the match and starting odds of course). :think:

I’ve not had time to try it myself yet, but wondered if anyone had tried that or something similar? :confused:

Anyway looks like I’ve got plenty of reading to catch up with on here. Happy punting and hopefully I’ll be a more frequent visitor now.

J
 

Bobajobber

Gelding
James,

Nice to see you back kid.

I thought the old brigade had upset you at Kempton :D

Can you remember the name of that system?, not sure if I had offered it up on behalf of someone,but I think I moved them all over.
 

JamesNich

Filly
Cheers,

Nah, the old farts were a good laugh. Glad I booked the following day off work though. They've got more drinking experience than me I'll say! (Not that I can't handle it of course :lol: )

I honestly can't remember mate, it was a few months ago I remember seeing it. (May not have even been on the old forum). I'll try my best to give it a go though sometime soon. It kind of makes sense to me in that it 'could' work. Could being the operative word.

e.g. Man City v West Ham. Man City long odds on, go one up and the LTD odds lengthen, admittedly the 2-1 scoreline would increase (I assume in most cases as 2-0, 3-0, Any Unquoted would be favs).
If West Ham score first the 2-1 odds would decrease (I assume) so trade out of that? The LTD odds would shorten admittedly. But only until the equaliser - if scored - materialised.

As you can tell all pie in the sky at the minute, but I'll see if I can monitor it sometime soon.

Cheers,
J
 

JamesNich

Filly
Thanks Dave, hope everything is OK with yourself and Carol.

Another get-together sounds good to me mate. I believe the alcohol I consumed at Christmas and New Year has finally worn off!!
 

synikal

Colt
At last - another football trading thread on the forum! Thanks J, looking forward to seeing your picks and trades.

I've been wanting to do some research using other markets in comparison to LTD for a while now. As you say the value of LTD has diminished over the years as more people use the strategy due to its ease. But is there better value in other markets i.e. Over O.5, Next Goal, Lay O-O HT, Lay O-O FT and CS 1-1 - using the same stake liability.

As the Correct Score market is at the heart of all other markets it might follow that backing the CS 1-1 would offer more value than LTD. I don't know if it does but it should be interesting to see if that is the case.
I think the main problem would be a very early goal which would mean trading out for a red result and not being tempted to gamble on the next goal.
Also it would be problematic if the same team immediately scored again before the markets had reformed or the BF monkey left the suspend on. The dreaded 0-0 is of course a matter of stop loss for all the markets. Apart from this I think it would offer more value than LTD.
Again, I don't know if backing the 2-1 would offer more value - but as you say, it's all about match selection and trading the bet with your stop loss.

Good luck J
 

JamesNich

Filly
Right here goes for an effort at LTD for starters. Where possible I will try and keep a log on what is going on with the 2-1 score as the match progresses as well.

I’ll start off with a £1,000 bank and risk 5% on a singe match. Stay at 5% of £1,000 until an as yet unidentified next target has hopefully been achieved.

There are quite a few games on Wednesday (23rd Jan) across Europe, but a lot of them are Cup games. I only like trading or betting for that matter on Cup games until the team news is in, so I’ll generally leave those alone. For starters I’ll stick to the trusty English Premier League.

Match: Arsenal v West Ham
LTD Odds: @ 4.8
Back 2-1 Odds to fav: Arsenal @ 9.2

Why this game?
Arsenal have scored 9 gOals in their last 4 home games, admittedly 7 were in one game against Newcastle. However, if you go back to their 5th to last game they scored 5 versus Spurs and in-between 2 versus West Brom. In their last home game they were reduced to ten men early on.

West Ham’s away form is terrible. Having not scored in their last 4, including games at Sunderland, Reading, Man United and West Brom. They conceded three at Sunderland and think they’ll concede at least one against Arsenal.

I think also Arsenal need to pull their socks up if they are to catch up Chelsea and Tottenham for a Champions League spot.

Starting Bank £1,000
Lay Odds 4.8
Lay Liability £50
Potential Profit (100%) £13.15
 

JamesNich

Filly
Well after an early scare - told you West Ham don't score away from home :oops: - Arsenal had it in the bag well before any panic stage, normally the 70-75 minute mark. 4 goals in ten second half minutes must be close to some sort of record.

After the first game:
Starting Bank £1,000.00
Profit: £12.49 (£13.15 less 5% Comm)
Current Bank: £1,012.49 (slowly but surely, I hope!)

Looked at tomorrows fixtures and absolutely nothing of interest. Roll on Friday.
 

JamesNich

Filly
Thanks Ark. I know what you mean, they're getting a bit too close for comfort (despite us beating them Sunday). Still, looks like my team has resorted to kicking ball boys now!
 

JamesNich

Filly
Forgot to add. I took down a note of the odds on the 2-1 score as the goals went in last night.
The 2-1 score started at 9.2 to back.
West Ham went one up and the odds fell to 6.8 to lay.
Arsenal levelled and the odds went down to 6 to lay.
Arsenal went to one up and the odds were 5.4 to lay.

Obviously had to get out quickly if you dared leave it to get to 2-1, but I guess you'd have been out at 6.8. May just have worked on this occasion.
 

JamesNich

Filly
A couple of games that would be of interest tomorrow night, namely.
Borussia Dortmund v Nurenburg - Germany Bundesliga - 19.30 LTD Odds 7.6
Cambuur v FC Eindhoven - Holland Eerste - 19.00 LTD Odds 5.7

Unfortunately those odds are a little too high for what I'm trying. I'm trying to stay at a max of 5. Maybe 5.2 at a push.

Another I like the look of is
Nimes v Sedan - France Ligue 2 - 19.00 LTD Odds 3.4

Nimes have won 4 out their last 5 at home, scoring 13 goals. Sedan have conceded 8 in their last 5 away games.
Nimes are just outside the play off places in 6th whilst Sedan are bottom of the pile.
Nimes one the reverse fixture 3-2 earlier in the season.


Starting Bank: £1,000.00
B/F Bank: £1,012.49
LTD Odds: 3.4
Liability: £50.00
Potential Profit (100%): £20.83
 

JamesNich

Filly
Nimes 2-0 up at half time, so got out then for £15.57 profit. £16.39 but less the 5% commission. Good job as Sedan have pulled a goal back. I've started to get out earlier when the favourite goes 2 up early(ish) on. A lot of the time they do obviously go on and win, but if you can get 75%-80% within the first 30-45 minutes I don't see that as too bad.

I could well be wrong of course, but it frees the rest of the time up and don't have to watch the game anymore.

I'm going away tomorrow (was suppose to be last weekend, but due to the weather it got cancelled). One game I do like the look of already tomorrow is Lazio v Chievo. LTD currently at 4.

Juventus v Genoa would be another but too high at 7.2
 

JamesNich

Filly
Others that I fancy:

Spain - Segunda Division - Elche v Hercules LTD @ 4 19.00
Elche played 10 and won all 10 at home. Not surprisingly top of the league as well. Hercules 21st. Elche won the reverse fixture 2-1.

Italy - Serie B - Varese v Lanciano LTD @ 3.9 14.00
Varese won 5 of their last 5 at home, scoring 13 and conceding 2. Varese looking to stay in the play off zone whilst Lanciano flirting with the relegation zone.

I'll stick with those three for tomorrow otherwise I will be called an unsociable ******. Bet365 and Betfair on the phone for just a while tomorrow, then beer time.

I'll update everything Sunday or Monday.
 

JamesNich

Filly
Thanks Ark. Risking life and limb going up to Doncaster. Bet they will all be out in t-shirts and shorts and saying it's pretty mild at the minute!
 

JamesNich

Filly
Nimes ended up winning 2-1, but wouldn't have been comfortable sitting on that scoreline for 40 odd minutes.

New Bank
B/F Bank: £1,012.49
Profit: £15.57 (£16.39 less 5% Comm)
C/F Bank: £1,028.06

Tomorrows games:

Italy - Serie B - Varese v Lanciano LTD @ 3.9 14.00

Italy - Serie A - Lazio v Chievo LTD @ 4 17.00
Spain - Segunda Division - Elche v Hercules LTD @ 4 19.00

Have a good weekend everyone!
 

JamesNich

Filly
All three games ended up in victories for one team or another but I got out of two of them before/around the 70th minute mark.

Two underdogs were 1 up, Chievo and Lanciano so lost £3.20 and £4.12 on those two. Made it back on the Elche game. I still got out when they were 2 up after 75 minutes or so. Score stayed 2-0, but managed to get £13.45 after commission.

C/F Bank: £1,034.19

Getting out the PSG game now as well. Just gone one up as I was typing.
 
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