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Lowly-positioned under 2.5 goals trial

paulb164

Colt
OK - another of my (possibly hare-brained) systems that I'm going to trial here... and one I can pretty much start straight away even during the international break.

I've long thought that teams playing each other who are both in the bottom half of their relative divisions finish with low-scoring results. With that (and because I have some time on my hands with top flight footy not on for the next few days), I have created an Excel file that can analyse upcoming matches from specific leagues where both teams are in the bottom half of the table. Rather than leave it there, I have only picked (for now) leagues that conform to the following criteria;
- leagues that average under 2.5 goals per game
- leagues at least 25% into their season (and therefore have some stats to work with)
- though currently set at highlighting the bottom-half matches as qualifiers, I have a built in filter to adjust it to perhaps the bottom third if that looks to be the threshold that works

At some point after I have some results to play with, I'll crunch the data and see if it can be improved, or even if it stands up at all as a profitable system !
 

paulb164

Colt
today's results are in, and it's looking positive so far. I am recording matches with teams in both the bottom half (50%) of the league, and also using a filter to only show the bottom 40% as I think that may improve the hit rate even though I'll have less qualifying picks to bet with. Time will tell whether profitability will also be improved.
With the 4 games picked for today, there were 3 winners with under 2.5 goals... with the 60% filter that reduces to 2 winners from 2;

1574020762060.png

1574020821512.png

All results were using Betfair's odds, and returns include 5% commission.
 

paulb164

Colt
For the foreseeable future and while I get some more results under my belt to analyse, I will be putting real money on the Under 3.5 goals market for all the picks - I'm quite confident that the basis for the system is quite sound for that market (but still need to be convinced for the under 2.5 goals at the mo). Just a couple of quid with a dripfeed element using an automation rule, but will see how it goes... if anyone's interested I'll post those figures on here as well to show if it's effective or not.
 

paulb164

Colt
We had another 6 games played last night, and the results are starting to show an interesting trend (if that's possible after just 10 games ?)...

1574493855167.png

As you can see, there is a mixed bag of wins and losses across the 10 games so far, and there's a small loss on £10 stakes if you follow all the picks, which are set at games between teams in the bottom 50% of their tables. When you just include games in the bottom 40%, the return changes quite dramatically;

1574494023650.png

There are still a couple of toggles I can introduce down the line which I think could improve the returns further, namely an odds filter, and possibly a league goal average filter (as you can see, I included a Spanish La Liga game which has an average slightly higher than the ones I said I'd use in my initial plan - while you can't really base analysis with the inclusion of one game, it's important to see just how high the league goal average can go before it loses money for you).
 

paulb164

Colt
The results if you filter it down to just the games in the bottom 40% - much easier to see how it is more profitable (so far) than just using the bottom 50% !

1574495392490.png
 
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