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Longshots - Each Way Betting

Following on from the 2.25 - Punchestown....
Top of the market analysis.

I feel the 2 favourites are incredibly short and despite form/connections I feel they can be beat....

5/4 shot Francine...I cannot be on a horse at that price who hasn't won in 3 years.
11/8 shot Pencilfulloflead...I can't be on a horse not yet proven at the distance or the ground.
5/1 shot Arturian Flame 5/1...Distance issue..2m 4f it has never been this far.

The horse near the top 13/2 shot has none of the above issues .
His 4th at today's distance was after a 241 day absence.
I am on the....

13/2 shot - Young Ted @ Boylesports.

A very interesting race/market where I shall be having another punt later.

NO BETS TODAY- PUNCHESTOWN MEETING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
 
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Chelmsford

6.00 - Drop Kick Murphi 11/1 4 Places.
Boyles fifth.

Trip and surface proven.
Drops to a Class 7 today.
Beaten less than 2L by British Lion
Who is vying for favouritism here.
Drop Kick Murphi is 5lbs better off
Than British Lion today.
Hoping he gets closer because of that.




8.30- Dyagliev 8/1 4 Places
Skybet fifth.

Front runners not a bad thing at Chelmsford.
Trip and ground proven.
Well weighted.
Good draw.
Probert takes the ride.
Dyagliev has won and placed at Chelmsford before.


I notice the horse hasn't been partnered with what I would call a particularly strong jockey recently.
I am hoping David Probert makes all the difference.
 
Chelmsford


8.30- Dyagliev 8/1 4 Places
Skybet fifth.

Front runners not a bad thing at Chelmsford.
Trip and ground proven.
Well weighted.
Good draw.
Probert takes the ride.
Dyagliev has won and placed at Chelmsford before.


I notice the horse hasn't been partnered with what I would call a particularly strong jockey recently.
I am hoping David Probert makes all the difference.
Dyagliev -Wins.
🤑🤑🤑
 
7.45 - Southwell
Elixsoft 12/1 5 Places .
Bet365 Edge fifth.

When this horse runs at this track and trip
It never gets worse than 2nd place.
I am ignoring its last run at Newcastle
I think the horse prefers this track.
Previous 2nd places achieved here.

Track and trip proven.
Jockey Gemma Tutty gets on well with this horse,
Has got last two 2nd places on it
Gemma takes a useful 3lbs off,
Well drawn in 2.

12/1 5 Places in a 9 horse race, I call that more than fair.
 
7.45 - Southwell
Elixsoft 12/1 5 Places .
Bet365 Edge fifth.

When this horse runs at this track and trip
It never gets worse than 2nd place.
I am ignoring its last run at Newcastle
I think the horse prefers this track.
Previous 2nd places achieved here.

Track and trip proven.
Jockey Gemma Tutty gets on well with this horse,
Has got last two 2nd places on it
Gemma takes a useful 3lbs off,
Well drawn in 2.

12/1 5 Places in a 9 horse race, I call that more than fair.
Elixsoft 4th.
🤑
 
2.00 - Lingfield
Hover 6/1.
Betfair. Fifth the odds.

I liked the debut run of this Martyn Meade trained 3 year old.
Beaten less than 5L,
I think with another 50 yards it would have grabbed 3rd,
I think this horse will improve for that run.

Travelled well I thought,
Strong looking type,
Joe Fanning rides, riding very well at present.
Same grade and trip as last.
Good draw in 4.

This is a 12 horse race, but I personally feel only 5/6 have a realistic chance.

At 6/1 I have this as my each way play of the day.
NON -RUNNER.
 
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4.39 - Gowran
Nelly's Money 14/1 currently.
Betfair. Fifth the odds.

19/2 - 4 Places taken.

I am ignoring last month's race where the horse was a favoured 7/2 shot,
I feel soft ground may have not been to its liking,
I am concentrating on the previous race
Where it placed 2nd on Heavy ground,
It had Dreamingandhoping 7L behind that day.
That horse then ran in a Grade 2 (beaten 8L).

Regular jockey rides EP O'Brien,
Taking 7lbs off.
Extra 1F shouldn't inconvenience,
Second run for the year,
Hoping for improvement today.

Worry - The most exposed horse in this race.

------------------------------

Second selection in this race is Wild Atlantic Lady.
9/1 @ Hills - fifth the odds.

Likes the Heavy ground,
Beaten 4.5L previously,
I hope this 5 year old will improve further today,
Jockey WT Cronin rides,
Takes 7lbs off.

I think the more rain the better for both these horses.
Suppose to tip down tomorrow.
 
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bluelionman

Yearling
Hope you were on....
Bet365 were going 5 Places btw.
No as I did not see a reply I left it - wasn't sure if the e/w at a fifth odds made it value or not and doing 4 places rather than 5 I kept checking the price but it shortened more so I swerved. I'm not skilled at the GG's but hoping to piggy back on some tips from here. Shame I did not do it now. Always next time. I know bet365 did 5 places but those odds was down to 9/1 when I looked for 5 places on that horse hence looking at 4 places to get the 12's but alas they shortened into 10's by the off so I left it. Should of got on when 4 places was at 14's or 5 places at 10's.
 

bluelionman

Yearling
2.00 - Lingfield
Hover 6/1.
Betfair. Fifth the odds.

I liked the debut run of this Martyn Meade trained 3 year old.
Beaten less than 5L,
I think with another 50 yards it would have grabbed 3rd,
I think this horse will improve for that run.

Travelled well I thought,
Strong looking type,
Joe Fanning rides, riding very well at present.
Same grade and trip as last.
Good draw in 4.

This is a 12 horse race, but I personally feel only 5/6 have a realistic chance.

At 6/1 I have this as my each way play of the day.
Correct me if I'm wrong but if this places you would be up minimally right - for instance say put a fiver on e/w @ 6/1, bet would cost £10 and placing your win £11 right?
That's e/w 3 places (1/5 odds)
 
7.00 - Newcastle
Betushka 18/1 Boost
Ladbrokes fifth.

Also taken 12/1 4 Places B365 Extra.
Fifth the odds.

At 14.36 also took 5 Places 10/1 B365 Exttra
Fifth.

On its debut run this horse didcwell from off the pace
To eventually finish 6th in a Class 4 race.
I feel this horse will improve for that run.
Good draw in 2, well weighted.

I feel today in particular in these high winds you will need a trainer who does well at the track as well as a good jockey who knows the time of day.
This horse has it in trainer Richard Fahey and jock Paul Hanagan.


I cannot be on 11/10 fav Defence Girl who is a debutante.
5/1 shot Manabit has only contested Class 5 company..
I worry about only because of the jock and connections
6/4 shot Rieson may yet win, that too has had a few chances
And has not found the winning line yet.

I am overlooking Zere because of the 4 month layoff.
The other 6 horses are outsiders who I can't see placing.
For me there are ifs and buts about the top of the market
I feel they have something to prove today.....

I fear Rideson most.
 
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