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Longshots - Each Way Betting

DUNDALK

5.30 - Harbanaker 5/1
Hills fifth.

Improving horse,
Good draw,
Jockey taking 3lbs off,
7f no problem.


In a race with countless longshots and 5/2 shot Crossfirehurricane not solid in my opinion,
I feel my selection has few to beat to get in the first 3.

I make this the each way play of the day and too big at 5/1.
8/1 3rd 🤑
 
4.30 - Kempton
Press Your Luck 30/1 boost.
Hills fifth.

Quite frankly in this race I think the trainers are being feared more than the horses.

Nicky Henderson 2/5 shot Flinteur Sacre beaten nearly 4L in a Class 5.
Paul Nicholls horse 3/1 shot Force Ten beaten nearly 17L in a Class 5.
Richard Hughes 3/1 shot Le Bateau beaten nearly 17L in a Class 5.
The rest are massive prices who I think won't place.
9 horses take their chance here.

My selection has won albeit in a point to point.
I am hoping Chris Gordon has been getting it ready from October
When it won and ran the last time.
Bought for £40K, so I am thinking they didn't pay that for fun.

I am sure I am going to find out, but with such form I don't know why
The horses above are priced as they are....

NON-RUNNER TODAY.
 
12.48 - Uttoxeter.
Valse Au Tallions 6/1 Boost.
Hills fifth the odds.

Drops slightly in trip today,
Which won't inconvenience,
Heavy ground suits,
Luca Morgan retains ride.

Came 7th in November in a Class 1 Novice Listed race...
After a 5 month break,
Shows me it has a little class.
Beaten less than 4L in a Class 4 last month.


Running in a Class 4 again today in only its second run this year, I think it will improve further.
 
1.15 - Newbury
Tremwedge 10/1 Boost.
Hills fifth the odds.


Ran 3rd in a Group 3 race in December.
In that December race well regarded horses...
Cerebus and A Wave of the Sea were in front of Tremwedge.
Tremwedge was a little over 4L behind AWOTS
That horse went on to get 3rd in a Grade 2 race
And 5 days ago it won a Grade 1.
AWOTS is a 12/1 shot for the Triumph Hurdle
At the Cheltenham Festival.
Cerebus also has great G3 and G1 form.

I call this strong form and I see few horses whose form boasts as much.

Today's trip and ground suits.
Alan King Tom Canon pair up.

Chantry House is yet to race anywhere near group company.
I will watch it try to win at 2/5.

Bet365 Edge....
10/1 4 Places
15/2 5 Places
Taken at 10am 8/2/2020.
 
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3.35 - Newbury
Ecco 25/1 6 Places
Sky - fifth the odds.

This novice hurdle winner has been running well of late.
When he has run in a Grade 1 Class 1 race before
He runs no worse than 6th place.
At Cheltenham last year he finished 6th
To Pentland Hills as a 100/1 shot.
I think this 5 year old has improved plenty since then
And I feel Paul Nicholls has him ready for a crack
In this ultra, ultra competitive race.
Byrony Frost rides today and she has won on him in Nov.
Ecco is ground versatile,
From its last race it runs 9lbs lower.

I can't resist a big race involving Paul Nicholls and Byrony Frost on a Saturday afternoon, always exciting.

At 25/1 for 6 Places I take my chance.

Bet365 Edge
10/1 10 Places.
Taken at 10.04 on 8/2/2020.
 
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12.55 - Warwick
Demachine.
5 Place 17/2.
6 Places 7/1.

Bet365 Edge fifth the odds.

I like this Kerry Lee trained horse,
One Touch beat it last time out, 9L.
One Touch is currently vying for favouritism.
One Touch this time is carrying 11st 10lb
11lbs extra to contend with today.

Demachine is carrying 11st 1 lbs.
I think Demachine will get closer this time.
This extra 1 and a half furlongs could help.
Ground no problem.
Fresh horse, first ride of the year.

Richard Patrick rides.
 
12.48 - Uttoxeter.
Valse Au Tallions 6/1 Boost.
Hills fifth the odds.

Drops slightly in trip today,
Which won't inconvenience,
Heavy ground suits,
Luca Morgan retains ride.

Came 7th in November in a Class 1 Novice Listed race...
After a 5 month break,
Shows me it has a little class.
Beaten less than 4L in a Class 4 last month.


Running in a Class 4 again today in only its second run this year, I think it will improve further.
3rd 🤑
 
12.55 - Warwick
Demachine.
5 Place 17/2.
6 Places 7/1.

Bet365 Edge fifth the odds.

I like this Kerry Lee trained horse,
One Touch beat it last time out, 9L.
One Touch is currently vying for favouritism.
One Touch this time is carrying 11st 10lb
11lbs extra to contend with today.

Demachine is carrying 11st 1 lbs.
I think Demachine will get closer this time.
This extra 1 and a half furlongs could help.
Ground no problem.
Fresh horse, first ride of the year.

Richard Patrick rides.
3rd 🤑
 
Ecco lost.

Thanks so much @hedgehog
It has been a very good day for me and I did well with a few not posted here.

That is why you should never get down when you have a few losses, because you always get it back in the end :)
Hope you did well today 🤞
 
4.35 - Wolverhampton.
Dima 7/1.
Vegas Angel 7/1.
Betfair Edge 4 Places.

These two horses ran in the same race last month.
Dima was 5th and Vegas Angel was 6th.
Both horses were having their debuts,
I think they will both improve for that run.
Vegas Angel was 6/1 for that race
So I think more was expected that day.
Dima I thought ran well for the Botti yard.
I think that 5th can be improved upon today.

Beautiful Illusion is 6/4 and a debutante, not for me.
Distant Goddess 7/4, too short for what its done.
7/2 shot Festival Love.... I will let it win at those odds.
I fear Festival Love more than the two shorties.
 
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6.40 - Wolverhampton.
Valentine Mist 18/1 currently.
15/2 5 Places. Betfair Edge.

When running at this track and trip
Valentine Mist runs well, two 3rds of late,
1m 4f too far for it last time,
Gets on well with jock Sophie Ralston
Who takes a handy 5lbs off.
On Boxing Day got 3rd in a 0-60 race,
This is a slightly easier 0-55 race.

I can't have 7/2 shot Aunt Helen who got beat over 11L in Class 5 recently.
3/1 shot Windsorlot won a Class 7 in Jan, beaten over 4L in a Class 6 yesterday.
At 9/4 Cat Royale will not carry my money.
I don't count these as solid favourites.

My only nagging worry about my selection is its age...8 years old.
NON-RUNNER NON-RUNNER NON-RUNNER
 
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2.15 - Plumpton.
Hewn From Granite 33/1 currently.

20/1 5 Places
16/1 6 Places
Bet365 Edge 1\5
Both prices taken.

I chose this JW Mullins representative because few in this field have...

Had a recent run,
Proven over this distance,
On this Heavy ground,
In this grade of race.

This is the horse's 2nd hurdle run
Must have learnt from first experience,
Kevin Jones steps down to what I think
Is the more capable jock in Danny Sansom.

I can't have the 2 debutantes until they show something,
The two very short favs I shall leave others to back.
Milreu Has does not have me worried,
The 3 66/1 and 4 100/1 shots I feel are no hopers.

Having cut this race up those prices for Hewn From Granite seem generous.
If I have carved it up right.....
 
2.15 - Plumpton.
Hewn From Granite 33/1 currently.

20/1 5 Places
16/1 6 Places
Bet365 Edge 1\5
Both prices taken.

I chose this JW Mullins representative because few in this field have...

Had a recent run,
Proven over this distance,
On this Heavy ground,
In this grade of race.

This is the horse's 2nd hurdle run
Must have learnt from first experience,
Kevin Jones steps down to what I think
Is the more capable jock in Danny Sansom.

I can't have the 2 debutantes until they show something,
The two very short favs I shall leave others to back.
Milreu Has does not have me worried,
The 3 66/1 and 4 100/1 shots I feel are no hopers.

Having cut this race up those prices for Hewn From Granite seem generous.
If I have carved it up right.....
50/1 3rd.
🤑🤑🤑
 
4.35 - Wolverhampton.
Dima 7/1.
Vega's Angel 7/1.
Betfair Edge 4 Places.

These two horses ran in the same race last month.
Dima was 5th and Vegas Angel was 6th.
Both horses were having their debuts,
I think they will both improve for that run.
Vegas Angel was 6/1 for that race
So I think more was expected that day.
Dima I thought ran well for the Botti yard.
I think that 5th can be improved upon today.

Beautiful Illusion is 6/4 and a debutante, not for me.
Distant Goddess 7/4, too short for what its done.
7/2 shot Festival Love.... I will let it win at those odds.
I fear Festival Love more than the two shorties.
Vega's Angel 3rd.
Dima 4th.

Thank-you Hollie Doyle and Hayley Turner :)
🤑
 
2.25 - Punchestown.
Hotel Du Nord - 33/1 cuurently.

11/1 5 Places - Betfair Edge.
1/5th the odds.

This horse pulled up in its last race in November last year.
I am going to overlook that as it was after an 8 month absence.
I am hoping trainer Mrs J Harrington will have him ready.....
After this 3 month break.

Has won a point on Heavy ground, so will get the ground.
Has placed 4th at 2m 4f before, which is today's trip.
Today's jockey has placed 4th on this horse before.
Jockey takes a helpful 5lbs off.

What made me back this horse is the race it pulled up in....
All the finishers in that November race have all won since,
Alongside those wins, many have also placed in the first 3.
I think that is good form.

PUNCHESTOWN MEETING CANCELLED - NO BETS TODAY.
 
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Thanks @hedgehog
Haha yes, you are right and I do spread it around a bit.
Bet365 are giving me a good run, and it almost makes me glad I had a lean spell last week as that may put them off the scent a little longer.

To be honest I dread the day they restrict me, as I am yet to see another bookmaker that equals their outstanding value.
 
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