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Longshots - Each Way Betting

3.30 - Lingfield
Mr. Chua 8/1
Bet365 1/5 3 Places.

2 miles too far for this horse last time
Back to 1m 4f today.
Luke Morris gets back on board.
Rode it to 3rd 8th Jan.
Has contested in a Class 2 hurdle race (3rd)
The favourite here has been running in Class 5 races
In its last 3 runs.
Favourite here has run in Class 3's but has never been
In the first 3 positions.


If this race stays to 8 runners I really fancy my chances of getting in the first 3.
 
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7.15 - Kempton
Mobham 12/1 Betfair
1/5 3 Places

I pick this horse as it has ties with the above selection.
8th Jan race ran just 1 and a quarter lengths behind Mr. Chua
7 lbs less to carry today.
Lewis Edmund's more than capable jockey.
Has Kempton form.

If Mr. Chua runs well I will fancy my chances even more with Mobham.

At 14.48 Mobham is out to 20/1 and for 5 Places on the extra feature B365 are offering 16/1 5 Places fifth the odds.
I have taken it.
 
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3.45 - Red Archangel
15/2 4 Places Edge
Betfair fifth odds

I am taking my chances in this 8 runner field.
This Richard Spencer 4 year old
Ran in a listed race last time
More than gets this shorter trip.
Sam Twiston-Davies rides.

I can't have a 10/11 fav who fell last time
Paul Nicholls Dora is a debutant
Gilka French form has been on the flat.
Of all the horses taking part Tronda is the one I fear.

4 Places Red Archangel carries my money.
 
7.40 - Wolverhampton
Capella Fella 25/1 3 Places
12/1 5 Places Betfair Edge
Fifth odds.
Both prices taken.

I think this horse is too big at 25/1.
Has Wolverhampton form
This shorter trip won't inconvenience it.
Beaten less than 2L last time.
Good draw.
David Probert rides.

The information that also swung me to this selection is in the last 12 months David Probert's lowest riding weight has been 8st 6, today he rides at only 1lb higher.
Is that a clue? We shall see....
 
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OnTheNod

Gelding
7.40 - Wolverhampton
Capella Fella 25/1 3 Places
12/1 5 Places Betfair Edge
Fifth odds.
Both prices taken.

I think this horse is too big at 25/1.
Has Wolverhampton form
This shorter trip won't inconvenience it.
Beaten less than 2L last time.
Good draw.
David Probert rides.

The information that also swung me to this selection is in the last 12 months David Probert's lowest riding weight has been 8st 6, today he rides at only 1lb higher.
Is that a clue? We shall see....
You could well be right on this one if he is run up with the pace could well get a place lets hope 1st place, GL!!
 
7.40 - Wolverhampton
Capella Fella 25/1 3 Places
12/1 5 Places Betfair Edge
Fifth odds.
Both prices taken.

I think this horse is too big at 25/1.
Has Wolverhampton form
This shorter trip won't inconvenience it.
Beaten less than 2L last time.
Good draw.
David Probert rides.

The information that also swung me to this selection is in the last 12 months David Probert's lowest riding weight has been 8st 6, today he rides at only 1lb higher.
Is that a clue? We shall see....
2 horses dead heated for 4th.
I get 5th right?
 
1.31 - Huntingdon
Leskinfere 11/1 @Hills
3 Places fifth.

This maiden drops in class today.
Class 4 today.
Today's distance will be fine for this horse.
I like that it is getting weight from every horse above it,
Benjamin Poste rides,
Most of all I like its 2nd placed defeat by Itchy Feet,
Itchy Feet was a high class novice hurdler last season,
Won a Grade 1 race next time.
On Saturday it runs in Grade 1 company again.

I like this solid form line, I am on at 11/1.

At 13.15 I am hedging this bet at Bet365 who offer 5 Places at 11/1.
 
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1.53 - Doncaster
Silkstone 12/1 @ Hills
3 Places fifth.

The fav Zoffee on what it's done I can't have it at 6/5.
There is a move for Kangaroo Valley, my selection beat
That horse nearly 5 lengths previously.
Pekinpah needs to prove itself I feel,
Despite its connections I feel Rikoboy must too...
I am not fond of French form.
Isolate is a debutante as is Proton.

Silkstone has proved itself in Grade 4 before,
Has run good second places,
Pam Sly horses are running okay,
Jockey takes a handy 3lbs off.
Hoping the first-time cheekpieces will work a wonder.

Could not resist the 17/2 for 5 Places at B365 at 12.57pm.
Taken.
 
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hedgehog

Mare
@The Uncouth, results have run against you recently but you ended up last year with a nice profit so I wouldn't be perturbed or change anything in your process. Just chaos taking it's chances, you'll end up this year with another good profit so just keep going as your process is proven and weather the recent downturn to come out the other side smiling all the way to the bank.

Good luck
 
DUNDALK

5.30 - Harbanaker 5/1
Hills fifth.

Improving horse,
Good draw,
Jockey taking 3lbs off,
7f no problem.


In a race with countless longshots and 5/2 shot Crossfirehurricane not solid in my opinion,
I feel my selection has few to beat to get in the first 3.

I make this the each way play of the day and too big at 5/1.



8.30 - Yuften 12/1
B365 fifth.

In the last 2 years every time this horse has run
At Dundalk over 1 mile it has never been out the 3.
Seems to love Dundalk.
Jockey takes off a very helpful 7lbs.
Much lighter weight now than last time.
Good draw.

I feel this Denis Hogan trained 9 year old hasn't finished performing well for the each way steal.
 
4.30 - Kempton
Press Your Luck 30/1 boost.
Hills fifth.

Quite frankly in this race I think the trainers are being feared more than the horses.

Nicky Henderson 2/5 shot Flinteur Sacre beaten nearly 4L in a Class 5.
Paul Nicholls horse 3/1 shot Force Ten beaten nearly 17L in a Class 5.
Richard Hughes 3/1 shot Le Bateau beaten nearly 17L in a Class 5.
The rest are massive prices who I think won't place.
9 horses take their chance here.

My selection has won albeit in a point to point.
I am hoping Chris Gordon has been getting it ready from October
When it won and ran the last time.
Bought for £40K, so I am thinking they didn't pay that for fun.

I am sure I am going to find out, but with such form I don't know why
The horses above are priced as they are....
 
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