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Longshots - Each Way Betting

Chesham

Sire
This horse just drifted out to 50/1 on Betfair and I have taken 16/1. 1/5. 5 Places.
I went in again because I have again looked at Yuften's (Dima is its half sister) record on Standard going and it is incredibly impressive.

Also took 50/1 3 Places at a fifth the odds.

This added at 08.28. 20/1/2020.
I don’t understand the connection between Yuften and dima as the Dan\m has only had one progeny run

9F03807C-7CCC-4B2F-8100-029A9A61E35E.jpeg
 
Hi @The Uncouth Just trying to follow along with this and have looked on Betfair Sportsbook and have come up against....
"We're sorry to say that this promotion is not available to you. Click the link below to see other promotions available to you."...….never mind. :(
I will try and find another way / angle to use your selections.

I see the way you operate......race structure is very important with this style of betting......very clever.
I am a big fan of punting the 'unknown' ie. race debutants. One should only back winners.....proven to do what you are asking of it today..…..but if it hasn't tried what you are asking it to do then you don't know that it can't.

Good luck today and always.
 
I don’t understand the connection between Yuften and dima as the Dan\m has only had one progeny run

View attachment 80985
Hi @ Chesham,
Well on B365 write up it said its half sister was Yuften, so I went onto gg.com and looked at Yuftens Standard record and in those it had 14 runs, won 6 and placed in 6.
I thought in a race full of debutants and such a record that its sire has on Standard, Declaration of War I just had to go with the bet.

I am not as experienced as you not by a long way and I am sure your data is right.
My inexperience today may yet kick me in the butt lol.

Having just gone in again at 110/1 for 2 places at fifth at B365 Extra, I hope I got it right :)
 
I believe Uncouth is referring to Yuften's (Dima is its half sister) - daughters of Invincible Spirit

Scrap the above - I see where I went wrong. o_O
 
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Hi @The Uncouth Just trying to follow along with this and have looked on Betfair Sportsbook and have come up against....
"We're sorry to say that this promotion is not available to you. Click the link below to see other promotions available to you."...….never mind. :(
I will try and find another way / angle to use your selections.

I see the way you operate......race structure is very important with this style of betting......very clever.
I am a big fan of punting the 'unknown' ie. race debutants. One should only back winners.....proven to do what you are asking of it today..…..but if it hasn't tried what you are asking it to do then you don't know that it can't.

Good luck today and always.
Hi @retriever
Bet365 all those prices are there.
Betfair you must press the Edge feature.
 
I've been restricted with Betfair Sportsbook with their promotions......

Anyway, this is the connection between Yuften and Lady Nouf…….with the dam Majestic Sakeena.

Yuften.png

By the way, I am still trying to learn about all this stuff - so forgive my errors @Chesham @The Uncouth
 
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mick

Sire
One should only back winners.....proven to do what you are asking of it today..…..but if it hasn't tried what you are asking it to do then you don't know that it can't.
An interesting thought. I focus on selected hcaps for older horses to help negate the need to answer your question. With trip and ground unknowns then sometimes pedigree stats can prove helpful although correct interpretation and best use remains a difficult ask for myself. The other sod is accurately estimating improvement.?

I guess the positive is that when you feel you have or can answer those questions with a degree of confidence then the value aspect increases but i tend to back one on what it has done not what it might do.
 
@mick That's the question - does the increased value (price) of the unknown aspect warrant the risk of a bet.
The 7.25 Wolverhampton race is an interesting race in that as @The Uncouth says 3 of the top 4 in the market are also debutants. So has the market got it right with regards to the correct interpretation of pedigree? I am going to post a couple of snapshots and take one of the 4 places market near the off.
Apologies to Uncouth for cluttering your thread :)

5.25 Wolv 1.png5.25 Wolv 2.png
 
I am a big fan of punting the 'unknown' ie. race debutants. One should only back winners.....proven to do what you are asking of it today..…..but if it hasn't tried what you are asking it to do then you don't know that it can't.

Good luck today and always.
@retriever
I was meant to quote this earlier, but had to work.

This advice to me is worth its weight in gold and win or lose today, I shall never forget it.
Huge thanks :)

@mick
I understand where you say you back horses on what it has done, not what it might do.
I agree on that, however when the majority of the field is in the same boat in regards to not having run....that is the reason why I have piled on here.

Please retriever and everyone go ahead and carry on having your conversations here.
I was wrong last time not to allow off topic conversation, I have since learnt how much you learn from it.
I have learnt much today from Chesham, retriever and mick.
Thanks guys.

I must crack on with work now, so hopefully if there are any responses I will see them this evening.
:)
 
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Chesham

Sire
Hi @ Chesham,
Well on B365 write up it said its half sister was Yuften, so I went onto gg.com and looked at Yuftens Standard record and in those it had 14 runs, won 6 and placed in 6.
I thought in a race full of debutants and such a record that its sire has on Standard, Declaration of War I just had to go with the bet.

I am not as experienced as you not by a long way and I am sure your data is right.
My inexperience today may yet kick me in the butt lol.

Having just gone in again at 110/1 for 2 places at fifth at B365 Extra, I hope I got it right :)
The Dam is a Half Sister to Yufen who was a Gelding

D95727DA-9C95-4F88-894C-A8952F0F43E6.jpeg
 
5.25 - Wolverhampton
Dima.

20/1 1/5. 4 Places
11/1 1/5. 5 Places
Both prices taken at Betfair E/W Edge.

Many horses in this race are all debutants,
This includes 3 of the 4 at the top of the market,
In this 11 runner field there are 6 horses that
Are 66/1 and above.

So I choose Dima also a debutant.
This horse's sire is Declaration of War,
That horse ran very well on the Standard going,
In fact in won its first 2 races on it.
Trainer Marco Botti in form.
Jockey Jimmy Quinn riding well.
Good draw in 3.



This horse is currently 33/1.
I got my 5th. 😀👌
 
So let me get this straight.......on Dima you've had...

3 losing win bets -3pts
1 losing place bet (4 places) -1pt
1 win place at 1/5 of 11/1 +2.2pts
1 win place at 1/5 of 16/1 +3.2pts

Leaves a profit of 1.4pts for 6 points staked...….feels a bit risky to me.....you need a high strike with the places. Of course, this would be irrelevant should you get a high priced winner. Which brings me back to my thoughts - why bother with the place (e/w) side of things.

Not knocking it or you Uncouth. Well done. Dima certainly got smashed in the 4 Place market - you made a good call there.
The stand out horse and the one that went against the market was the 4th filly Nearly Perfection at 80/1.....otherwise the market was correct.


Opera Snapshot_2020-01-20_172642_www.betfair.com.png

I put a couple of quid on so I could watch the race....lol
 
The Eway - if you can make it pay fair do's, it allows punters to keep an interest and have a bet without to much damage to the pocket - from my view point, research and records E/W nets only handicap the profit line - I also looked very hard a place betting on the exchanges and again as method it was not profitable enough to make it a regular event - E/W and Place betting may be ok for certain circumstances but not as general method -

Phil Bull
This is the man who founded the famous Timeform. However it was gambling and not publishing which made him his fortune. His form analysis methods were all based around the clock, and in that respect he was way ahead of his time, he also added his considerable skill in Mathematics to the mix and these two things combined made him a very rich man.

He estimated that he made over half a million pounds during his life from gambling. A considerable sum fifty years ago.

Bull founded Timeform in 1948 with the aim of providing the information he considered vital to his successful gambling. Timeform looked at form on a horse by horse basis rather than a race by race basis which although common now was very innovative at the time.

Phil Bull had a tremendous temperament for gambling, with both wins and losses being treated the same. He treated daily profit and loss as unimportant it was the season as a whole which mattered. His attitude to form study was the same for every race. If having studied a race he decided that there was no bet then so be it. Here is his list of things that you shouldn't do:

1. Never bet beyond what you can afford and attempt to make your fortune in a day. It is the long run which counts.

2. Only bet when the odds are value. If you think a horse should be 5/1 if its 2/1 don't back it, but if its 8/1 do back it. If you are correct and you follow this rule in the long run you will make a fortune.

3. Make your own mind up don't follow tipsters. If the tips where that good they wouldn't be telling you.

4. Never back a horse ante post unless you have inside knowledge that it will definitely run.

5. Don't bet each-way in either races with big fields or handicaps in general/ One fifth of the odds is not good value.


Jack Ramsden
Jack Ramsden quit his job as a stockbroker in 1980 and since then has had 13 consequtive winning years as a professional punter. His successful punting like so many other professional punters is based around speed figures and race times. He recently stated I cannot stress too strongly the importance of race times. They bind my whole approach together. There are fewer good times recorded over jumps but everyone seems to know about those horses and they are too short to back.

Even cutting out the endless looking up of form books, I still spend two or three hours every day working out my bets. Jack continues, Im constantly on the look out for the 3/1 chance that starts at 8/1. There are 30 or 40 of them a year and they are there to be seen. At those prices you don't have to be right all the time! His premise is that while a good horse is capable of doing a bad time, no bad horse is capable of doing a good time.

He is unusual in that he has his own bookmaker, Colin Webster. There relationship is indeed unique, Colin pays Ramsden £ 5,000 a year for his advice and also has the job of getting his bets on with other bookmakers. Another unusual trait of Jack Ramsden is his liking for the multiple bet. His reasoning is that they are an extension of his policy to go for large prices and he reckons that on 4 occassions he has won over £ 200,000 on multiple bets.

The other piece of advice from Ramsden is regarding each-way bets. His advice is to ditch them. He states, I analysed my betting a couple of years ago and found that if I had doubled my win stakes instead of having each way bets, I would have been much better off. I think all punters would benefit by cutting out all each-way bets and sticking to singles.

Jack met his wife Lynda Ramsden when she worked at the Epsom yard of John Sutcliffe Snr, where Jack, one of Barry Hills's first owners, had horses. Ramsden was working in the City, but the City wasn't working for him. "I was a pretty useless stockbroker," he admitted. The Couple married in 1977 and then started training racehorses in the Isle of Man. I few years later moving over to England and North Yorkshire where they are still based to train.
 
I know you aren't knocking me, you just want to understand.
This is what I do...


On the longer prices I took the 50/1 and 110/1 I place small bets on those because the odds are so large.
On the 11/1 and 16/1 I place a far larger bet, so that I am assured a profit should my horse place.

I can't retire today, but I did okay.

I hope you didn't lose too much on Dima, if you didn't take a 5th placing.
 
That's the bit I didn't understand......that you can place WIN bets and PLACE bets separately with the bookies nowadays.
Traditional E/W betting used to be 1pt WIN / 1pt PLACE
Wish it like that back in my earlier days with them......I guess that exchanges have forced them to do so.

I hope you didn't lose too much on Dima, if you didn't take a 5th placing.
No I only put £2 on the 4 place so I could watch the race on Betfair Exchange.
Don't / can't use the bookies.
 
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