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Longshots - Each Way Betting

1.15 - Newbury
Mahler's Promise 8/1 B365.

This is quite a dodgy race
With many no-hopers in it.

Mahler's Promise has won recently
In a Class 4 race
Ran well in the soft ground
Came 2nd to Shiskin
Who is favourite in this race
And is highly regarded

This Willy Mullins horse if running as it did last time I feel must place in this field.
8/1 is surely too big here.
 
1.30 - Punchestown
Presenting Cody
33/1 6 Places
25/1 7 Places
B365 Each Way Extra

This horse ran and jumped well
For a very long way on its first hurdle run.
That was in a race contested by Tiger Tap Tap
Form of race boosted by winner, second and fourth.

1f extra today,
Ground fine
Jockey C A Landers
Takes 5lbs off.

Johnny Little Legs was also ran in that race and coming round a packed field I think it got bumped a little and for a second was unsteady on its feet.
I am taking 30/1 9 Places on him.
 
4.00 - Newbury
Lightning Gold
10/1 7 Places
B365 Each Way Extra.

Beaten less than 2L in its first race,
Same distance and ground today,
Ran a solid race.

In this 13 runner race I feel 6/7 have no chance.
Surely 10/ 1 7 Places is free money.

We'll see....
 
1.15 - Newbury
Mahler's Promise 8/1 B365.

This is quite a dodgy race
With many no-hopers in it.

Mahler's Promise has won recently
In a Class 4 race
Ran well in the soft ground
Came 2nd to Shiskin
Who is favourite in this race
And is highly regarded

This Willy Mullins horse if running as it did last time I feel must place in this field.
8/1 is surely too big here.
Got excited when I saw this horse go off at 4/1.
It fell at the first.

Crashed and burned today.
That's racing.
 
4.00 - Musselburgh
Invisionandqmartyn 18/1.
13/2 3 Places Betfair EW Edge.

This horse was running creditably and then it slipped on the home bend.
Hoping for a firmer footing on this good to soft ground (was soft last time).
Down in trip, but up in class.
Keith Dagleish's horses must be given a second look when racing in the North.
Danny McMenamin takes the ride, riding well at the moment.
 
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6.30 - Dundalk
Only The Brave 20/1 4 Places at BetVictor

7.00 - Dundalk
Sayesse 14/1 4 Places at BetVictor

I am backing both these horses based on the Dundalk race on the 13th December 2019.
In that race horses Able Jack, Dark Magic and Everyhouronthehour all placed in the top 4, Able Jack won.
The other horses behind it run in different races at Dundalk tomorrow and are favourites.

Sayesse was 5th and I hope for a better showing with the more favoured jockey James J Doyle taking the ride
Drawn well in 2.

Only The Brave ran 2nd over course and distance in November.
I am hoping the December run in 10th will be improved upon given the form in that race.
SM Crosse takes over from a 5lb claimer.
 

Steeplechasing

Yearling
If things pan out the way I think they will, Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase (2.40 Haydock) will look more like a John Ford movie as they head for home, with Red Indian and Geronimo leading the pack. Red Indian is particularly good value at 25/1. He relishes the mud and has a record on heavy ground of 121. Four of his last 9 runs have been in graded company, including a 4th of 7 behind La Bague Au Roi in a Grade 1
.
He has 10st 11lbs here minus the 5lbs his jockey Ben Jones claims (top weight is Definitly Red with 11.10)

Red Indian has run his best races after longish breaks and he comes here having been rested for 287 days. He should not be 25/1. I’d normally back him each way but instead I will have a saver on the improving horse and the least exposed, Geronimo, who has won on heavy.
Geronimo has the almost perfect profile of an improver when you use Racing Post Ratings to measure progress. His career figures are: 103 103 107 114 114 119 123 132 135 137.

His trainer Sandy Thomson knows what he’s doing and the yard is in cracking form -4 winners from his last 10 runners with just one of those unplaced. You can back both with Bet365 who are currently best odds and also protect you with the best odds guarantee. Red Indian is 25/1 and Geronimo 7/1.

Summary
Red Indian 25/1 win only: 3* bet
Geronimo 7/1 win only 1* bet
 

Steeplechasing

Yearling
Apologies if I have invaded The Uncouth's thread. Initially I only read the first post in which I read, "If you have a longshot you fancy, post it here".

Having read more posts, I see it's almost exclusively selections from The Uncouth (and absolute belters too). I'm more than happy for a mod to move my post elsewhere or delete.

All the best.
Joe
 

Steeplechasing

Yearling
@The Uncouth That's very gracious of you, thanks. I will continue posting but I'm conscious that regulars will expect to find just your posts here, so, if it's not too presumptuous I will start a new thread.

@mick Many thanks, Mick for the kind welcome. I actually joined some time ago as a lurker and recall reading many of your posts as a dedicated RI user. I tried 2 years ago to get RI, even getting a Windows OS on my Mac. I got the intial stuff going all right but it wouldn't take in the overnights. RI were most helpful and tried a few things before concluding it was because I did not have a conventional router - it seems the system won't work when using a personal hotspot as I do. Quite why, he couldn't tell. Anyway, I'm a big fan of Raceform and value their notebook comments highly. I think they have a better team than Timeform.

@TheBluesBrother reminded me unintentionally in an email exchange that I had not been on this forum for a long time. I'll post regularly now (I only do NH racing) as the jumps are moving into critical Cheltenham build up mode.

All the best.
Joe
 
6.30 - Dundalk
Only The Brave 20/1 4 Places at BetVictor

7.00 - Dundalk
Sayesse 14/1 4 Places at BetVictor

I am backing both these horses based on the Dundalk race on the 13th December 2019.
In that race horses Able Jack, Dark Magic and Everyhouronthehour all placed in the top 4, Able Jack won.
The other horses behind it run in different races at Dundalk tomorrow and are favourites.

Sayesse was 5th and I hope for a better showing with the more favoured jockey James J Doyle taking the ride
Drawn well in 2.

Only The Brave ran 2nd over course and distance in November.
I am hoping the December run in 10th will be improved upon given the form in that race.
SM Crosse takes over from a 5lb claimer.
Sayesse places 4th.
Kerching 🤑
 
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