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Longshots - Each Way Betting

Why would it hurt me to congratulate you landing the Place Part of your bet. It turned out to be a good call on your part and it would have been amiss of me not to congratulate you, as I had posted past stats for the Trainear concerned.
I was only jesting :)
 
My take on this race.
No.NameRatingFair Odds/1
3​
Colonel Whitehead (IRE)66.004.85
5​
Colouring57.005.61
1​
Birkenhead48.006.67
6​
Heer We Go Again31.0010.32
10​
Rathagan29.0011.03
7​
Chasanda25.0012.80
4​
Silver Start24.0013.33
9​
Champagne Supanova (IRE)21.0015.24
2​
Seraphinite (IRE)18.0017.78
8​
Wilfy1.00320.00
Hi @Ferdy
I have seen you do these tables a few times now, how do you go about collating such information?
I think it's brilliant by the way.
 

Chesham

Sire
Jackform method based on Morton Coles method
CALCULATING VALUE BETS (OVERLAYS) FROM RATINGS

To calculate the percentage chances of each horse in a race allot the bottom rated runner a value of 1. From this the values for the other horses may be calculated. Take the 3.25 at Hamilton, August 22, 2000 as rated by compiler Nigel Taylor, Formcast of the Daily Mail.

Bottom rated Shatin Playboy. 48 = 1 (1 divided by 67 = .01493 = 66-1)
Next best rating Blue Forest. 62 = (62/48+1)=15 (15/67 = .22388 = 100-30)
Third rated is Millikin Park. 67 = (67/48+1)=20 (20/67 = .31343 = 9-4)
Top Rated is Alinga . 78 = (78/48+1)=31 (31/67 = .46269 = 6-5)
Royal Wanderer(not rated)

Total the individual values = 67 and divide each rating by the total, as shown in the second set of brackets. Then check the resulting figure against the field money table to obtain the odds. If the ratings reflect the chances correctly then the final odds will be ‘fair’ odds that is no advantage to either side. It is necessary to subtract a further percentage (say 10%) to provide an advantage – an overbroke book, a punter’s book.

The odds calculated will only be correct if the ratings truly reflect the abilities of the runners, which means that you need to use the most accurate ratings available. The higher ratings representing the shorter odds tend to be nearer the mark that those at longer odds. Ratings in the Racing Post, Daily Mirror, Daily Mail are cheap, consistent and readily available. However, if more accurate ratings can be found it would obviously be better to use them instead.

The calculation came from a letter to the Sports Forum in the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book circa 1979

Example 1. 4.40 Sandown 3 Feb 01. Agfa Hurdle

No

Rtg

Val

%
Fair
Odds
F/cst
Odds

SP

Horse
1782423.76210/311/86/4 3rdGeos
2742019.8024/15/1Hors La Loi III
3731918.8199/210/15/1WonTeaatral
4701615.84211/225/1Master Bevelled
55843.96025/15/111/2 2ndBounce Back
6551 .990100/13/1Gun'n Roses
75954.95020/125/1Mr Markham
8661211.88115/212/1Serenus
101100.006
 
Last edited:

Ferdy

Colt
I don’t use HRB ratings tool.
I have developed my own sheet over the last few years which allocates a numeric value to various factors. Form line, course and/or distance winner, market position, time off track etc.
 

Chesham

Sire
My experience with HRB is very similar to yours and may I add it is the only place that I have found where I can copy and paste the racecards directly into my Excel sheet, which I then use to create my own ratings.
Sorry, I presumed that you were using the HRB Tool
 
This horse was a non-runner last Saturday (temperature).

11.50 - Fairyhouse
Star Max 25/1.

The form of the selections 27th January run is strong.
Konitho won that race who ran to 5th next time to
The highly regarded Band of Outlaws.
Many a horse has come out of that race have won and placed.
Though at a shorter distance Art of America from that race won last Friday.

This race is 2m 5f which the horse has never run at.
But looking at its last race, it looked like it had more to give.
His last race he was 2nd, beaten 19L after a break of 189 days
He lost to a favourite that was a Gordon Elliot hotpot.

The selection will go on the ground
Has won on soft/heavy.
Talented jockey D Meyler rides.
Lightest weight in the race to carry....
Gets 9lbs on all the other runners.
Trainer had 2 seconds and 2 wins today.

Carefully Selected at 1/2 may well win.
There is lots of dead wood in this race,
Five horses at the top have long
absences to overcome.

Star Max travels well,
I feel it has class,
I feel it's been overlooked,
I take my chance at 25/1.
 
Last edited:
12.05 - Newbury
Jeremy's Flame 9/1.

Ran well in 2nd in a Grade 3
Race last time.
Improver,
Hurdles well.
Ground and trip...Perfect.
In form jockey Robbie Power rides.

I feel 9/1 is too big for what this horse has achieved.
Two very short priced favourites hog the front,
They can be beat though.
I fear Early Morning Rain more than them.

I am hoping that the 8 runners stand for the 3 places.
 

Ferdy

Colt
12.05 - Newbury
Jeremy's Flame 9/1.

Ran well in 2nd in a Grade 3
Race last time.
Improver,
Hurdles well.
Ground and trip...Perfect.
In form jockey Robbie Power rides.

I feel 9/1 is too big for what this horse has achieved.
Two very short priced favourites hog the front,
They can be beat though.
I fear Early Morning Rain more than them.

I am hoping that the 8 runners stand for the 3 places.
Another advantage of using the Exchanges is that they still pay 3 places if there are non runners.
 
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