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Longshots - Each Way Betting

Got a feeling about a longshot that you feel has a decent chance, then post it here.

Mine for today both run at the Curragh.

1.50 - London Holidays. 12/1
Ran in a race with horses with good reputations, also down in trip.

2.20 - Miss Molly T. 20/1
Ran okay last time and has halved in odds to 10/1 since last night.
 
My 2 longshots today run at Bath.

2.30 Vulcan. 22/1
Sire enjoyed this ground and the cheekpieces go on for the first time, Jason Watson takes the ride and has a good strike rate when he rides in the Midlands.

4.10 Espresso Freddo 12/1
The key to this horse I feel is the ground, which it gets today.
Not a strong pick, I feel it has a chance in this field of horses.
 
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Tuesday Each Way Picks.

2.50 Ayr - First Impression 9/1.

This horse races down one grade to Class 6.
Jason Hart rides Ayr very well.
This horses sire relished soft/heavy ground.

4.10 Southwell - Duck Egg Blue 16/1.

Ground/Trip no issue.
Last time ran 2 miles and came 3rd, conceding 24lbs to winner. (11st 11lbs).
Billy Garrity takes 5lbs off today, making a nice 10st 7lb racing weight.
Down in trip today.
 
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6.40 - Kempton
La Maquina 33/1.

The races in which this horse has ran this year and yielded a poor finishing position has been down to either being run on turf (I think it being run on this Kempton surface is preferred myself), and this horse had been hampered badly a couple of times notably in July where I think it might have won.
The horse has a good finishing kick and I think the mile will be ideal.

Has run in a Class 3 (turf) before but was taken left and couldn't recover.
The wonderful Nicola Currie takes the ride here again, I think if she gets a clear passage and doesn't start too far adrift then I think this horse will run well.

Danger - I am very worried about Kuwait Currency.
 
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3.45 - Ascot
Landa Beach 8/1.

I think the last two races this horse ran in were crackers, especially the last one where he ran strongly in the closing stages.
So the 2 miles should be ideal.
Will love the ground.
I also find it interesting that the jockey David Probert will be riding at his lowest weight in 12 months.


8.45 - Dundalk
Malbas. 14/1.

Forget this horse's last race as it was run within a few days of its last.
Also had a big weight of 9-12
Featherweight on it's back tomorrow.
Trip and ground ideal.
Very capable jockey.
 
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Sunday.
5.05 - Longchamp

Safe Voyage 9/1.

This horse has run behind some very highly regarded horses of late, one such being Romanised...but I feel Safe Voyage was not running on his favoured ground that day (it was good ground).
Tomorrow it will be tipping down cats and dogs, the horse will love the ground.
Trip fine.

Jason Hart usually rides this horse, but I will most definitely take Frankie as a substitute.
 
6.35 - Galway
Sizing Malbay 6/1

I believe this 2m 3f is this horse's best trip.
Ground versatile.
Has the talented K J Brouder on board.

I think the favourite is vulnerable in this race and Le Hachette has been on the go plenty lately.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

4.10 Brighton
Shifting Gold. 14/1. (4 Places)

Has run some fine races recently.
Back down to a Grade 6.
Has run well at this trip.

Risk point - Not run on soft ground before, but its sire loved it.
So worth a punt at 4 places.
 
6.00 - Kempton
Tom Collins 45/1.

This is not a very good race and I have tried to dissect it for each way value.
Premier Power will most likely win.
Well Prepared definitely has a chance.
Fleeting Prince though classy is carrying top weight, might be vulnersble.
Tommy Rock I am not convinced with.
The other 4 runners I feel are dead wood.

Tom Collins I feel can improve for this surface, his sire wasn't at it's best on soft.
Races down in Grade 5 today.
I always feel a bad debut run can be forgiven.

Alezan at 66/1 is also not out of this e/w and I will be placing 5 places each way extra at 25/1 with B365.
 
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Friday.
3.50 - York

Moon King. 10/1....4 Places at Lads.

This horse has been running very well lately.
Loves good to soft, soft, heavy ground.
Trip/Grade of race fine.
All his wins have come under Harry Bentley.
Not been out the four places in a year.
I am more than willing to overlook it doesn't have York form.

This horse is as low as 6/1 at PP.
This is my best bet for Friday to place.
 
6.00 - Kempton
Tom Collins 45/1.

This is not a very good race and I have tried to dissect it for each way value.
Premier Power will most likely win.
Well Prepared definitely has a chance.
Fleeting Prince though classy is carrying top weight, might be vulnersble.
Tommy Rock I am not convinced with.
The other 4 runners I feel are dead wood.

Tom Collins I feel can improve for this surface, his sire wasn't at it's best on soft.
Races down in Grade 5 today.
I always feel a bad debut run can be forgiven.

Alezan at 66/1 is also not out of this e/w and I will be placing 5 places each way extra at 25/1 with B365.
Tom Collins came 2nd.
Alezan 5 places achieved.

Been a great day.
 
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