• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Lonesome Travellers

There have been many systems based around one horse being taken to a meeting by a trainer. However, I've yet to find a system that delivers a worthwhile profit. There are probably many reasons for the failure of the horse to win. Maybe the overriding one could be the trainer has an inflated opinion of the ability of his charge, or the trainer owns the horse, therefore does not have to explain to a disgruntled owner why he's taken the horse halfway across the country only to finish last! So, I've decided to take up the challenge and in an attempt to find a few winners have applied some basic filters to the selection process. Failure is probably on the cards, but we'll give it a go!

June 12

SANDOWN -3

1.35 Phoenix Star
2.15 Queens Carriage
4.35 Leoncavallo

YORK +1.33

2.00 Nicholas T WON 10/3
3.40 Aikido
4.50 Irv 3rd 13/2

CHESTER -2

2.10 Glory Fighter
2.45 Psyche

BATH +5

4.20 Hashtagmetoo WON 5/1
4.55 Broadway Diva race abandoned

WORCESTER -2

6.30 Just Call Me Al
7.00 Diamond Brig

LEICESTER -4

7.15 Silent Partner 2nd 10/11
7.45 Cuban Cigar
8.15 Coley's Koko 2nd 11/4
8.45 Katherine Place 2nd 11/4

Not great, but not a total disaster.

ISP: - 4.67
BSP: - 1.97 [inc 2% comm]
 
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Good luck with this SilverBlaze SilverBlaze. I've looked at this before and struggled so hope you find a profitable way through, as I agree there's an angle that the market probably doesn't fully pick up. Couple of observations from me:

I've thought about combining the idea with ratings, but which ratings, what criteria etc. In essence, it becomes a boost as an angle rather than a blind system.

I've also wondered if there should be filters around time of season. Eg, one runner on a busy flat day like today could mean more than one jumps meeting in summer when half the yard is out to grass.

Good luck with it :)
 
Good luck with this SilverBlaze SilverBlaze. I've looked at this before and struggled so hope you find a profitable way through, as I agree there's an angle that the market probably doesn't fully pick up. Couple of observations from me:

I've thought about combining the idea with ratings, but which ratings, what criteria etc. In essence, it becomes a boost as an angle rather than a blind system.

I've also wondered if there should be filters around time of season. Eg, one runner on a busy flat day like today could mean more than one jumps meeting in summer when half the yard is out to grass.

Good luck with it :)
Thanks for your interest. I certainly agree that using ratings could well sort the wheat from the chaff. However, this would not necessarily highlight a runner that has been running under the radar in order to win at a fancy price, which I feel is the more likely approach from the smaller stables. This also raises the fundamental fact that with the smaller strings, running a 'singleton' would not in itself mean that much. They just simply don't have enough horses to fill a wagon on any given day. I also agree with the point you make about a busy day like today. However, it could prove that betting on any Saturday might not be the best idea, as racing tends to be more competitive with bigger fields than on a normal weekday.
 
All fair points. I tried adding a few things like distance travelled and only focusing on yards with a minimum number of runners each month, but I remember not getting very far.
 
June 13

DONCASTER

4.15 - Annie Rose n/r

SALISBURY -2

3.38 - Cairn Gorm
4.08 - Sunset Bay 2nd 6/4

ISP: - 6.67
BSP: - 3.97
 
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June 14

CARLISLE

4.15 - Betty Grable WON 5/2

LINGFIELD

4.20 - Kim Wexler WON 5/1

NOTTINGHAM

7.20 - Flower Of Thunder

WINDSOR

8.00 - Strawberry Jack 2nd 4/1

ISP: - 1.17
BSP: + 1.44
 
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markfinn

Sire
I've always thought the distance travelled is a red herring.

Not according to some to some top trainers - some regard the the stress of travelling to be the equivalent of a prep race - age might be a consideration

Turf only 2017 - onwards SR
1623667246704.png

this needs looking at in the light of number of runs / experience of the trip
 
Not according to some to some top trainers - some regard the the stress of travelling to be the equivalent of a prep race - age might be a consideration

Turf only 2017 - onwards SR
View attachment 101984

this needs looking at in the light of number of runs / experience of the trip
Thanks for that. I'm sure that if all the sole travellers were logged over a period of time, a pattern would emerge of the trainers who have the most success when travelling their horses. However, it's the apparent general lack of success when horses are travelled that remains the puzzle for the punter to solve. Why does a trainer even bother? A number of attempts have been made to make sense of this, but with very little success. I could well be adding my name to the list!
 

markfinn

Sire
Thanks for that. I'm sure that if all the sole travellers were logged over a period of time, a pattern would emerge of the trainers who have the most success when travelling their horses. However, it's the apparent general lack of success when horses are travelled that remains the puzzle for the punter to solve. Why does a trainer even bother? A number of attempts have been made to make sense of this, but with very little success. I could well be adding my name to the list!
You could try looking at stable size as very few will send one out alone if the transport could be shared - how do you know when one has travelled alone ?


1623682832954.png

? dont know if these are any good but all are in form trainers and lone runners ( might have shared a van ) today
 
Thanks again. I agree with the point you raise. We can't know if the trainer has shared a van, so, we have to assume not in an attempt to devise a system. As I stated in my introduction to this test, I've applied a few filters to simplify the selection process, but none of them takes into account the specific distance the horse has travelled. We shall see whether trying to keep it simple works!
 
Imagine the success we could have if there were certain real life filters we could throw into HRB...

Shared a van with another trainer. Ignore.
Had a banging headache but thought the trip would be worth it. 3pt win.
Course is 500 miles away but only 50 yards from his Mam, who he was visiting for the week. Ignore.
Jockey had an extra Weetabix this morning and is up for it. 2pt win.
 
June 16

HAMILTON

1.30 - Winter Siege
4.25 - Dandy's Angel 2nd 5/1

UTTOXETER

2.15 - Zip Pearl
2.50 - Black Kraken
4.00 - Taysar

RIPON

7.00 - Omany Amber 2nd 7/1

CHELMSFORD

8.23 - Petalite
8.53 - Aramis Grey WON 4/1

ISP: - 1.67
BSP: + 2.68
 
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June 17

CHELMSFORD

3.20 - River Dawn

RIPON

4.00 - Nibras Gold - 3rd 2/1

LINGFIELD

5.30 - Creek Harbour - 2nd 5/1

FFOS LAS

5.45 - Trumps Benefit - 3rd 15/2

ISP: - 5.67
BSP: - 1.32
 
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June 20

HEXHAM

2.10 - Al Kherb 2nd 7/2
3.45 - Path To Freedom

WORCESTER

4.05 - Mercian Prince WON 7/2

PONTEFRACT

4.25 - Sociologist - n/r
4.55 - Fantasising 2nd 9/2

ISP: + 11.33
BSP: + 20.85
 
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