VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

[mtoto]

Ifyou care to observe the races with the highest penalty value you will note that the winners are usuallyfrom the three market leaders, orput in a different way, horses which . . . for those who know the game, are fancied. For that particular method it was the three most fancied from the 'Summary'and not the betting feast otherwise you were well on the way to solving the problem. As I recall Desert Hero, which was amongst the three was top rated on time and I believe 'Split Secconds' nap, but as you say it did not feature in the F'cast.

As this has been posted on this blog I do feel I am within my rights to answer it. Here I would just like to point out some of the above isn't a quote from VDW, it is the posters personal opinion of what he would like the quote to say . The actual wording is Accept, or better still, prove for yourself, that a high percentage of races are won by form horses and that the majority will be in the shorter price end of the market. Also appreciate that reducing the card to three horses did not mean an automatic means of evaluation. Desert Hero was one of the three most popular selections from the Summary, it was a form horse, in fact, it was the class/form horse and for Split Second fans it was best on time.

The part that is factual is this the fact a horse is the form horse and that has nothing to do with its position in the betting, although at times it is a little more obvious to see and the world and its brother can see it. The fact a horse is passed by the betting public doesn't change the simple fact it too can be a form horse. The part I find very interesting is all of the horses in this article/example are probables as I see them and as said many times I think the probables are a very important part of the VDW formula. I'm not saying they are top rated probables, but they are certainly in the top three and a horse doesn't have to be in the forecast to be a probable.

Last post on this Blog as it will distract from the usual content.

Here I'm rather hoping the usual content is referring to the explanations given for the selections or none selections, not just posting a list of names. While I accept some don't feel up to going into any serious detail and their efforts are appreciated others are more than capable of giving some detail and choose just to put up one liners and complain when others do it.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Hi mtoto

RE Your Quote

Ifyou care to observe the races with the highest penalty value you will note that the winners are usuallyfrom the three market leaders, orput in a different way, horses which . . . for those who know the game, are fancied. For that particular method it was the three most fancied from the 'Summary'and not the betting feast otherwise you were well on the way to solving the problem. As I recall Desert Hero, which was amongst the three was top rated on time and I believe 'Split Secconds' nap, but as you say it did not feature in the F'cast.

Quote Mtoto As this has been posted on this blog I do feel I am within my rights to answer it. Here I would just like to point out some of the above isn't a quote from VDW, it is the posters personal opinion of what he would like the quote to say .

This was published in The Silver Linning and is a letter from VDW in response to one by Mr Spiers. As far as I can see the content is from VDW and no different to that which you say is not a quote from VDW but my personal opinion.

I am puzzled as they look identical in content



With regards to usual content it was referenced to your normal posts regarding your analysis of the races that you cover and nothing derogatory intended.

if the one Liner Comment that you made was referenced to me, then those who see my usual daily posts know that is not true. But if It helps you get over your frustrations, then I understand.

 

[mtoto]

I am puzzled as they look identical in content

As is usual you can only see what you want to see, on revisiting the quote I still can't see orput in a different way, horses which . . . for those who know the game, are fancied. In fact the article example starts by saying ..........
Yet another finds not more than one a day, but not every day with a win percentage well into the eighties and all manner of prices, for instance, March 12, Desert Hero 20-1 and for the Cheltenham Festival . . . Gaye Brief 7-1, Badsworth Boy 2-1, and the Gold the mention of all manner of prices does not remotely suggest market position is an important aspect of the method. The simple fact VDW's selection suggest you don't think VDW knew the game!! No mate you have once again added words to suit your logic /ideas.

if the one Liner Comment that you made was referenced to me, then those who see my usual daily posts know that is not true. But if It helps you get over your frustrations, then I understand.

I can only judge you on the actual posts I can see and as you know they are few and far between when it actually comes to naming selections. However a quick look on the VDW tipping thread does show what I'm talking about. One liners just a horses name before the race and sometimes a very brief explanation of how that selection was arrived at after the race. Even then it is often just a note of someone else's reasons or a list of rating showing the selection well up the ranking. nothing before the race at times not even why you think it would have been a VDW selection .

You seem to have your own little fan club and the only thing that frustrates me is why do you feel the need to come on to my blog. I don't want/need you or your ideas so please go away and leave me in peace!!

Mtoto

 

[Chesham]

I am puzzled as they look identical in content

As is usual you can only see what you want to see, on revisiting the quote I still can't see orput in a different way, horses which . . . for those who know the game, are fancied. In fact the article example starts by saying ..........


Mtoto

Have you got a copy of The Silver Lining as I am quoting a reply from VDW to Mr Spiers I have underlined in green the quote,that you cant see



As for the rest of your tirade

 

[Chesham]

This is the full letter from the Silver Lining



Big hug from me, mtoto

 

[mtoto]

This is going to be an open post address to anyone who is interested, and I know some of you have no interest in VDW. However this isn't really about VDW, but when two articles are written on the same subject and there seems to be a difference between them which one would you take as the main article? I ask because this question has arisen in a discussion on this thread. I do have a copy of The Silver Lining but the passage being quoted seems to be missing. As I have always taken it that booklet wasn't that important and just consisted of passages from other VDW literature I had never looked at it as a major/important part of the VDW literature. However the question to anyone is which article would you place the biggest store by? The first one written as shown in Whiel Of Fortune the one my quote was taken from or the later one used in The Silver Lining? I don't know the dates these booklet were issued/published but the Whiel Of Fortune does seem to be the earliest. Personally I think the Silver Lining quote is being used because it appears to agree with the posters thinking i.e the betting market being important while the other one clearly states the method produces selections at all manner of prices, this really does suggest prices are not that important and being in the first few in the live market isn't that important. To be very honest now I have seen this other article I also have the problem, do I put more faith in the article I quoted because it agrees with my thinking? However I do have the fact I can fall back on that it does seem to show my theory re the probales does hold water. Whereas the other article only holds the fact that many form horses start at shorter prices, but doesn't show a form horse can also be an outsider. I agree not that many do, but the bigger prices doesn't stop them being form horses.

So basically the question has nothing to do with VDW it is simply given two different explanations about the same article which one would you use/take? The one that agrees with your thinking /logic or the other one.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Hi mtoto

Re Your Quote “Personally I think the Silver Lining quote is being used because it appears to agree with the posters thinking i.e the betting market being important”

I posted the Silver Lining Article, because it references the “Sumary Of Selections” and that the idea has proved to be fruitful in 2018, Using data that is available today as the Sporting Chronicle Data is not available. My selections using the idea and data available have not referenced the Betting Forecast when arriving at those Selections. I hope that soothes your concerns.

With regards the VDW article he states that one could observe that Races with the highest penalty value, the winners are usually from the first three in the Betting. ,but was fancied by those who featured in the Summary Box amd was Split Second nap. Again, I read it as “usually’ does not mean always and those outside of the Forecast can win using the method suggested. In fact one such outsider I noted recently, but did not select, finished 3rd and was about 25/1. As stated in a previous post I have only recently explored the idea and it is reasonable to expect that one outside of the Forecast will win now and again at big odds.


You seem to have taken this as a personal dig at you and all I have posted was the bare bones of an idea suggested by VDW and that with a little research it is not a bad idea and can be applied in 2018. The discussions that have taken place with mjay, and others on your Blog have been positive. I will withdraw from posting on your blog, but perhaps you may encourage further discussion with yourself and those who have shown an interest in the summary of selections idea. Who knows you may start to get more interaction with others on your Blog, I noticed that Tom O'Brien and Nellsman have posted on your BLOG, but did not receive any encouragement from you or even a response. Perhaps you should alter your Blog to only you can post on it. I think as you often mention that you have received PM’s, that you prefer to be in a aTeacher/Pupil role, rather than discuss ideas that others may have on your Blog. Perhaps I am wrong but I know others think the same as well.

All the best and I wish you good health

 

[mick]

So basically the question has nothing to do with VDW it is simply given two different explanations about the same article which one would you use/take? The one that agrees with your thinking /logic or the other one.

If you already have the thinking and are comfortable implementing it as part of your process then why take either or worry about them.? Should your interpretation be different to the majority then be pleased because you are increasing the chances of obtaining value from the market.

Reading the above VDW said backing at bigger prices just because they are such is no good to anyone ,but he did not say they never win or should be swerved full stop.As per the norm with vdw a fuss over nothing because any experienced backer using your mentioned "logic" would already be well aware of this and should have established there own ways of making best use.

With respect mtoto this is really about yourself and your inability to recognize or accept that another member can have a different perspective to your own and not be wrong.Personally i feel this costs you both via decreased positive interactions on this thread and perhaps also your own learning.Why you feel this need is the real question you should be asking not of others but yourself.?

The bottom line for us all is long term profits and it really makes no matter how we achieve this only that we do and feel reasonably confident that this will continue to be so.The my way or no way attitude is certainly not unique to vdw disciples but some of them do appear to indulge in this,and i do wonder if there time might be better spent via attempting to improve there own understanding rather than telling others that theirs is wrong.?

 

[mtoto]

With respect @mtoto this is really about yourself and your inability to recognize or accept that another member can have a different perspective to your own and not be wrong.Personally i feel this costs you both via decreased positive interactions on this thread and perhaps also your own learning.Why you feel this need is the real question you should be asking not of others but yourself.?

mick I don't think you will find I said the basic idea was wrong just the factual interpretation. If you read both quotes you will see the the suggestion is a horse has to be in the first three in the betting and folk who understand horse racing will know this.

Reading the above VDW said backing at bigger prices just because they are such is no good to anyone ,but he did not say they never win or should be swerved full stop.As per the norm with vdw a fuss over nothing because any experienced backer using your mentioned "logic" would already be well aware of this and should have established there own ways of making best use.

I agree with the above but would just like to point out VDW never said anything about not backing a horse because it was a bigger price, that is suggested by the the wording being used in the other quote. And I would like to point out “Sumary Of Selections” is also mentioned in the Whiel Of Fortune article so why was the Silver lining used as it came about after the first article. Again I say it was used to back up the thinking of the poster the actual wording from that first article said .......... The method revolved around sections in the old sporting Chronicle daily which were headed Summary Of Selections. I knew that in certain races a very high percentage of winners would come from the three most popular selections. This narrowed the field of vision from possibly more than a hundred horses on the card down to just three from one race of perhaps a dozen runners. Accept, or better still, prove for yourself, that a high percentage of races are won by form horses and that the majority will be in the shorter price end of the market. Also appreciate
that reducing the card to three horses did not mean an automatic means of evaluation. Desert Hero was one of the three most popular selections from the Summary, it was a form horse, in fact, it was the class/form horse and for Split Second fans it was best on time. So it is being shown the important factor is being a form horse not the position in the market. While I accept you are experienced there are still some that take every word Chesham utters as fact and that can mislead.

Personally i feel this costs you both via decreased positive interactions on this thread and perhaps also your own learning. Thank you for worrying about me but there is no need, yes I would like a little more feedback on the blog but with over a hundred views most weeks I do feel the blog is doing quite well. One thing I worry about is when Chesham decides to join in as said before some think he is the font of all knowledge and they feel they have to agree with him. Some may/will smile at that but I have plenty of unselisted PM's complaining about him. As these have been sent in private I don't feel it would be appropriate to show them at this time all I want is for him to back off, and stop being a bully.

I don't need reminding Nellsman and Tom have left comments on the blog and you will find I have/did put a like by one of them. However I was waiting/trying to get them to flesh out their comments a little but decided to say it straight out would only give the folk who think I'm autocratic even more ammunition.

I will say I have seriously thought about leaving this forum but have now decided against it so I will be around for some time

Be Lucky

 

[OnTheNod]

I am not a vdw follower by any stretch of the imagination but if he was using the first 3 in the betting as his main judgement, then also filltering in very consistent horses in certain cases as well i think GB and DH both had 111 last runs was along time ago now so i cant remember. It will be interesting to see how Chesham results go say over a month.

I still repeat i think we sould all work together conflict is never good btw.

 

[mick]

mtoto I have only just read your above edit and Re myself who you have bold type quoted no thanks where sought or needed.When you use this blog to make comments which some members may disagree with then sometimes they will feel the need make this known.A form subject or forum politics makes no matter.

 

[Chesham]

Hi mtoto
Let’s get this straight, I mentioned when congratulating Tom O'Brien on his Saturday selection that I had arrived at the same one, using the Selection Box idea that VDW mentioned. I did not elaborate .

Nellsman asked me what that was and I copied him the Mr Spiers Extract. Had Nellsman not asked I would not have bothered any more and my post would have been a one off on your Blog



At no time have I got personal with you on this recent topic, but you seem hell bent on making it that way with your usual snide comments “Font Of All Knowledge” etc.

I have clearly stated in my last post that I did not reference the Betting Forecast, so it does not matter if the Mr Spiers reply Letter mentions it. I don’t see why it bothers you when I have clearly stated that I have not referenced that suggestion from VDW.

With regards to your mention of PM’s, I am sure that you have received them and can probably guess who they are from. Some send more PM’s than they Post. In the past (Not on this Forum, as I have shut my PM to off)I have had PM’s and emails about your My way or the Highway attitude, when it comes to VDW and possibly from the same ones who PM you, but Hey Ho it’s probably a marmite thing.

I think that you have missed an opportunity to work with others on The Summary Selections Idea. Who knows perhaps your PM Club will be in touch on the subject and you can relish in the Teacher/Pupil Role.

Once Again I wish you good health and sorry for cluttering your Blog up on what started as a mention in reply to Tom O'Brien winning selection.

Enjoy those PM’s

 

[Chesham]

Hi mtoto

Someone has kindly given me a copy of the Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune (I had misplaced my hard copy) we are now viewing the same booklets.

It would appear that VDW refers to the Selection Summary Horses more than once in the Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune And for some reason does mention more than once about Tiddlers and not expecting to always bag Whoppers. Plenty of Tiddlers in the Keep net are apparently a good thing .He does seem to Reference the Forecast and betting market quite a few times

The following is in the Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune And is dated Jan 1986 and is later than the Mr Spiers Letter in the Silver Lining. Thanks for reminding me about the Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune

 

[Chesham]

It is amazing what snippets the Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune holds. VDW is very negative about backing each way

 

[Chesham]

Gosh VDW is at it again in the Ultimte Wheil Of Fortune, suggesting that one could stick to the first, second or third in the Betting and states for obvious reasons. I wonder what he meant by obvious. I can see PM’s being sent off for this answer.

He really is a little tinker, this VDW. He keeps banging on about the first three in the Betting market and earlier I spotted that VDW was against backing Each Way, but to Dutch instead. Blimey what’s a chap to do if he finds himself doing exactly the opposite. I would PM someone immediately for answers

This VDW is really frustrating when he keeps saying “Read What Was There” well I have just highlighted in green what was there. But then I am told by someone here, who does the opposite to what was there and tells me that I am only reading the bits that suits me, but could it be that he is the one who is reading the bits that suits him. Of course a proud collection of PM’s received, must mean that he really is the font of all VDW Knowledge, and it must be me that has not read what was there . I am off to spec savers to see if they sell VDW Glasses to help me read what was there

Have fun

 

[jm77]

He really is a little tinker, this VDW. He keeps banging on about the first three in the Betting market and earlier I spotted that VDW was against backing Each Way, but to Dutch instead. Blimey what’s a chap to do if he finds himself doing exactly the opposite. I would PM someone immediately for answers

But you’re PM facility is turned off, oh great one

I wanted to ask about weight, VDW never mentioned that or the betting market

This VDW is really frustrating when he keeps saying “Read What Was There” well I have just highlighted in green what was there. But then I am told by someone here, who does the opposite to what was there and tells me that I am only reading the bits that suits me, but could it be that he is the one who is reading the bits that suits him.

 

[Chesham]

But you’re PM facility is turned off, oh great one

I wanted to ask about weight, VDW never mentioned that or the betting market

You need to PM the person who loves receiving PM’s, he is always telling us that he has received PM’s, but with regards weight VDW highlights where Wing And A Prayer cries a favourable Weight and where Canny Danny carries an unfavourable weight in comparison to another runner in the race West Tip. I have indicated the relevant text in green



I have not seen Weight and the Betting Market Linked. The Betting Mrket is mentioned the recent extracts of the VDW Literature. Ie fishing for Tiddlers ETC

If you want to look at the use of favourable weight, then Lee’s Bets are worth exploring as he said some of his bets were the Wing And A Prayer Type.

Now and again on a Thread that I run, I will post anhorse that seems to fit in with my understanding of how Lee operated his take on VDW, I could have interpreted his method wrong, but it does seem to awork out favourably

A Pre Race example using what I see as a Lee Type Bet. If you down load the Class Rting Sheet for that date and click on the Form Tab, you will see the data that is used for the selection. Lee mentioned that he usually only needs the last three races.

 

[nagwa]

Thanks chesham for putting those examples up

 

[mtoto]

Newm 1:55 1 Spark Plug 2 Examiner 3 Baydar
Good 2:05 1 Titi Makfi 2 Isabel De Urbina 3 What A Home
Good 2:40 1 Donncha 2 Love Dreamer 3 Right Action
Weth 3:05 1 Withernsea 2 Gulf Of Poets 3 What's The Story
Newm 3:35 1 Gustav Klimt 2 Saxon Warrior 3 Elarqam
Newm 4:45 1 Old Persian 2 Key Victory 3 Stephensons Rocket

Probables
Newm 1:55 1Sharja Bridge 2 Another Eclipse 3 Banditry
Good 2:05 1 What A Home 2 Titi Makfi 3 Mori
Good 2:40 1 Right Action 2 Love Dreamer 3 Mister Music
Weth 3:05 1 Gulf Of Poets 2 What's The Story 3 Mutamaded
Newm 3:35 1 Saxon Warrior 1 Elarqam 3 Gustav Klimt
Newm 4:45 1 Old Persian 2 Key Victory 3 Stephensons Rocket


1:55 With six of the runners with proven form in a higher class this looks very competitive. With the top three class wise all looking in need of finding their form these being Baydar, Battle Of Marathon and Third Time Lucky it could well open up for the other two higher ranked in the final figures.Spark Plug likes this stiff straight course and trainer seems more than happy to pull the horse out if he isn't happy with the going. While he has shown reasonable/good form early in a season his best is usually after a couple/few runs. Examiner is versatile when it comes to courses and does have proven /winning form on this course. While his figures are still good they have dropped off a bit in the last couple of seasons. Spark Plug small win loaded place is the bet not e/w as while I think he could make the first four, a win would be a far harder task.
2:05 Nothing here for me prices all too tight.
2:40 Donncha is the only runner with proven form in a higher class and while he does have fair form on this course I would want a better price.
3:05 Rousayan is the highest rated consistent horse in fact ther is only one other horse with an entry on the d/base, that being Withernsea. Withernsea looks to have lost his form for the moment and with concerns re the going and a not very interesting price I'm putting a line through him. Here I'm taking a chance on Rousayan, I know his winning for comes from the stiff Beverly course but the trainer does seem to persist with running him on sharper course. However a quick look suggests it may not be the sharp course but the long(er) run in that is wanted. This course says it is slightly up hill to the finish and has a long run in. Rousayan small win loaded place.
3:35 Same three as Timeform, all be it in a slightly diferent order, but that is enough to kill any real value. I have Gustav Klimt as the class form horse but he is followed by two unbeaten horses one with the same trainer. If pushed I would have to side with Gustav Klimt but in truth I would love to see this won by a smaller stable if Elarqam can't win it. No bet race for me.
4:45 Nothing here for me.

Be Lucky

 

[Tom O'Brien]

2.05G... What A Home