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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Hi Mtoto thanks.for.listing your horses have you noticed a drop in winners using your own criteria or is this due to other factors with Split Second ratings top ratings not a criticism just a thought thanks
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I to have been surprised at some of the races put up. I think it shows that there are many more ways and more classes of race that can be analysed profitably. The specialist is possibly more profitable because his number of bets are limited and has a knowledge of the same horses of the same class run in the same races over and again.
I don’t follow horses and have no horse data base so every contest is a new event and I prefer to work with numbers , accumatting evidence for the numbers unfortunately we need a few runs to reflect the true position. Some of the comments on that thread are price less - owners stats - the fact this trainer runs horses into the ground before passing them on - are just two examples - you are not going to get such info easily from many other sources. @mick has pointed out that the winner is found daily and distillation of the selections gives a narrow band of probables.

So tip up and then consider what others have posted in order refine the process .
can you post your intended target race the day before ? . Give me a chance to look at them

@markfinn I can post up the races I will be looking at to make my selections, but the final selection (s) are usually made after I have all the information, and this includes none runners and prices. So sometimes that isn't until around 11:30. Of course that doesn't apply to the ante post bets but, in truth they can be few and far between

I don’t follow horses and have no horse data base so every contest is a new event and I prefer to work with numbers

I too count every race as a new event but find a d/base very useful as my main criteria isn't the win aspect of a horses form. I have a record of every performance I consider good enough to warrant a note even if that record isn't the one actually being used as it can show me the course, and other factors needed to make a sensible selection. As said before I too work with numbers but those numbers only reflect on an individual horse and not connections.

Hi Mtoto thanks.for.listing your horses have you noticed a drop in winners using your own criteria or is this due to other factors with Split Second ratings top ratings not a criticism just a thought thanks.

@nagwa to be honest I don't look at winners as such, and I'm reasonably happy with the profit being shown

From a win perspective, Vincent might find the Going tough at Chepstow, when it’s get heavy at Chepstow it is really heavy. I think they will try to get his BHA Rating down in time for the Scottish National.

@Chesham You may have noticed I did mention the doubts re the going, Can he handle the heavy going has to be the question, but if there is any serious doubts I find it hard to believe this trainer would risk him with decent races coming up in the spring. I decided as winning isn't the main aim of the bets and as the trainer had stated he didn't want the horse plowing through deep mud. After his last race he would try and find out if the profile was changing with age. Unfortunately from my point of view the run didn't really settle anything about the going as they went off a bit fast, and Vicente was out paced before his stamina had time to kick in.

Be Lucky
I think as you often say This Horse /This Race = another Tilt as the Grand National or Trying to win the Scottish Version again (I did mention this in my post on Saturday.

The owner is Trevor Hemming and by entering Vincente (Top BHA in the Race) it enabled his other runner (Vintge Clouds, Favourite) to carry a lower physical weight of 11-1, quite useful ploy when a horse has to slog around a race like the Welsh National on Heavy Going :handgestures-thumbup: VDW mentions in The Golden Years, Trainers putting two in a race to reduce the weight of another of the Trainers favoured Runners.
The owner is Trevor Hemming and by entering Vincente (Top BHA in the Race) it enabled his other runner (Vintge Clouds, Favourite) to carry a lower physical weight of 11-1, quite useful ploy when a horse has to slog around a race like the Welsh National on Heavy Going :handgestures-thumbup: VDW mentions in The Golden Years, Trainers putting two in a race to reduce the weight of another of the Trainers favoured Runners.
@Chesham AS one who really thinks weight makes a major difference do you really think the two pounds reduced by Vincente would have made a significant difference to Vintge Clouds finishing position? My understanding of the hcp is that every other runner would also have benefited from the two less weight. I had several other horses that had a better chance than VC, like yourself on your class figures. When I posted my ratings and thoughts I did point out the worry/danger of the going, it may have been helpful if you had done the same when you posted your ratings. I also think it is taking a major chance basing your thoughts on the one run on heavy when he had won three out of eight on good to soft. I can't see how that stat is confirmed who decides on the differences.

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Be Lucky - I will need to

Lanzarote – hard race
Going -, Out Goes – None all seem to OK on GS
The course -Out goes Red Indian – never been tried going right looks to be a class C horse at moment
Distance Wishful Thinking never been this far on course before – Dino Velvet & Man From Mars - similar
The stats –
Don’t want anything over 8yrd – however going to give William Henry pass at the moment
Out goes 11yrld I shot the Sheriff
DSLR - Don’t want a quick returner in what is sure to be a big test
out goes Top Ville Ben (14 days) and DDBeiffes (18 days) also doubts about distance for him
Weight Rank -Rules out – Spirit of the Games - Dentley De Mee –
Bags Grove
William Henry aged 8
River Frost
El Terremotto
Of these - William Henry drop on age – River Frost looks weakest –
So – Bags Grove 5/1 & Topofthegame 6/1
Warw 2:25 1 Prime Venture 2 Kris Spin 3 Templeross
Kemp 2:40 1 River Frost 2 Bags Groove 3 William Henry
Warw 3:35 1 Sir Mangan 2 Cresswell Breeze 3 Missed Approach

Warw 2:25 1 Prime Venture 2 Black Ivory 3 Malapie
Kemp 2:40 1 Bags Groove 2 William Henry 3 Spiritofthegames
Warw 3:35 1 Sir Mangan 2 Cogry 3 Krackatoa King

When I started looking at today's racing I was working on eight races. I was quite confident the 2:25 at Warw would not come into the reckoning. However it turns out to be a higher class race than the 3:35, that race is the perfect example why you can't just take the class 2 in the title as a fact!! The top OR is only 139 making it for me a class 3

2:25 I have Templeross as the clear class horse in this. No way of telling if his poor last run was down to the going, he does have a win on heavy but that was in much lower class. He does seem to prefer going right handed but flat tracks suit. Prime Venture has plenty to find class wise in fact I make him lowest class wise of all the runners with a rating. Add in the course also raises doubts for me. Kris Spin more than a bit surprised to read the comment in form recent runs against his name as for me he has only one run I would consider a for run in the last year and that still leaves him well behind Templeross. Did toy with relying on Templeross's class but decided discretion may just be the better part of valour when the trainer is taken into account. Although I will be watching with great interest and if he just runs well he maybe one for later!!
2:40 River Frost the only runner with proven form in a higher class but there has to be a doubt re the course. His best so far has been on undulating courses . He does have a course win on this course but in a lower class. The course doubt along with the short price stops this being a bet for me. Bags Groove second best class wise but with no worries re flat "speed" course. Can't find it being said he would be targeted for this, but it does look as if he has been. William Henry hasn't an entry on the d/base and his ranking is solely due to his probable figures and I think those have been flattered by his trainer. Bags Groove small win loaded place.
3:35 Cresswell Breeze on my figures he is the horse with the best recent form of the horse with proven form in a higher class. In saying that this must be just about the lowest class 1 on record for sometime. For me I worry that the course may not suit Cresswell Breeze as undulating courses especially stiff(er) ones with this in mind I would want a better place price. The prices on Sir Mangan and Missed Approach don't interst me enough to warrrant a bet.

Be Lucky

Not sure if you wanted them but these are the races for Sat 20/1/2018

Ascot 2:25
Ascot 3:00
Hay 3:15

2:25 most likely but either of the the three subject to runners, price etc. could come into the reckoning .

Be Lucky
Acting Lass needs a leap of faith but untested on course and going and could well surprise these

Klcrea Valley untested on the going but if trainer leaves him in he must be in a chance
Fortunate George has to improve but right age for that - Ditto Robinshill
Ascot 2:25 1 Air Horse One 2 Oxwich Bay 3 Jenkins
Hay 3:15 1 Rock The Kasbah 2 Carole's Destrier 3 Forest Des Aigles.
Ascot 3:00 not enough runners for my method

Ascot 2:25 1 Oxwich Bay 2 Jenkins 3 Thorpe
Hay 3:15 1 Forest Des Aigles. 2 Tintern Theatre 3 Hainan

2:25 Air Horse One is the only runner with proven form in a higher class. While I have him ear marked for a run on a stiff course like this one it has to be noted he has never produced his very best on anything other than good going. With this in mind I think he will be aimed at Cheltenham (the County again perhaps). Oxwich Bay has plenty to find class wise a fact confirmed by the cross check, however he can handle the soft going and his one run on a stiff course showed he could handle it all be it in a lower class. Jenkins another Henderson horse that holds a ranking based purely on its probable figures. This horse has won three hurdle races and none were good enough to make the d/base, apart from the price one major worry with him would have to be his record on stiff courses. A no bet race but will be watching Air Horse One with great interest!!
3:15 Rock The Kasbah one of only two runners with proven form in a higher class than today's , however his place price is too tight for me when the going is taken into consideration. He also seems to save his best for undulating courses and missing the Welsh National could have been a major mistake. The other runner who is also the class horse in this is Carole's Destrier. His last run was the first for quite some time and all in all it wasn't bad for a come back run. This course should suit. Forest Des Aigles plenty to find class wise again confirmed by the cross check should handle the going if he can handle this sort of class. Carole's Destrier small win loaded place, I did consider only using half stakes as it is possible he may not have fully recovered from what the problem was that kept him off the course for so long, bur decided to to trust the trainer wouldn't run him unless he was fully fit so full stake .

@markfinn thank you

Be Lucky
I think that Carols Destrier BHA Rating needs to drop a few pounds and is better going right handed
@Chesham I do hope you take this in the way it is intended. I had noticed most of Carol's Destrie wins had come when running right handed. However I don't automatically use a win as a barometer of ability. That is one of the reasons I use my own d/base as it tells me what I want to see not what everyone else wants.Carol's Destrie has two entries on said d/base and both are on left handed tracks. I don't know about you but I would class his run in the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase on the 26/11/2016 far superior to any of his previous wins. Re the drop in OR as you know that rating doesn't come into my thinking/workings but on a quick look he has already dropped 5 lbs and is only 1 lb higher than when he achieved those best figures. Now you could be right, but as you put a lot of faith in the live market there must be a few who don't agree with you when it was backed from 33/1 down to 16/1

Hope it isn't classed as after timing but when Air Horse One drifted I couldn't resist a bet at the price being offered.

Be Lucky
Two interesting comments in @mtoto above post.All backers who use some form of ratings as part of there work will often experience the situation whereby an animals best figs come in defeat.If we are also using these ratings as an aid to profiling then the confusion increases.? The bottom line for the majority of punters and connections will be the win,but past even prolific winning form can give a blinkered view of current strengths and needs.

I did not work the race in question so cannot be specific ,but if i had been faced with the above stats which def suggest the animal might be LH negative the way i would have approached it would have been to investigate how difficult the ask in each of the nine LH runs as opposed to the apparent positive RH runs and my ratings for each race would have proved helpful in this often difficult task.Although it is noted that in this instance the animal did lose.

Now this "Hope it isn't classed as after timing but when Air Horse One drifted I couldn't resist a bet at the price being offered" We all have our own interpretations and use of the market and educated as opposed to informed guessing will most often be the bottom line. When i have backed one which then starts to shorten i would view this as a positive ,but what i have also found is that should the opposite happen this does not always prevent the win.

These days when this occurs then subject to circumstances i sometimes go in again at the bigger price.I keep separate records for these occasions and long term they are producing very worthwhile additional profits.The market has proven accuracy and this must be respected but it is formed by opinion and if sometimes ours is different to the majority view with good reasons then the value can be there for the taking.
@mick - some good points and for me price goes hand in hand with any doubts - a negative directional bias like any variable could still be factored into the price - the animal in question Carol's Destrier came into the race yesterday having ran 13 times LH with 1 win and 4 places - one of those place's was a half length second in a large field Hennessy Gold Cup (and a career best) - i can see @mtoto 's thinking here and also how @Chesham can see that as a negative (comparing the RH record) That's what makes this game so great and so difficult as neither are right or wrong @mtoto 's view could be backed up by many examples of a directional bias being overcome nearly every racing day , while @Chesham 's point the same but reversed. It is a factor and certainly exists - but adding the price to the equation should make the decision easier to pass or play especially with "contenders"
Your point about prices drifting begs a question and this is not necessarily my thinking but something i think punters consider - with a big drifter is there a cut-off point where you have to say this horse is "off" today or start to think "something's up here" and do you take the scale of the drift into account for example say a 5-2 shot drifting to 6-1 - is not the same as a 10-1 drifting to 14-1. For me personally , price is the deciding factor and i welcome the drifters , although i also know that strike rate correlates to final price. Would be interesting to hear some other view-points especially the boys that play at the front-end of the market.
@ARAZI91 likewise you also make some interesting and valid comments.Re the one about cut off point for drift suggesting not off or " somethings up" i said "subject to circumstances" and although i do not use definitive numbers or price percentage to judge this, it would play a part in my over view of the situation. Tbh current times i find reading or predicting the markets has become increasingly difficult. I suspect this might be down to bloody BF and the tail now wagging the dog.?

I feel the best part of your above post is to reinforce that as punters we will all have a different take on form aspects and in this respect there are no right or wrong views only those which best suit our self.Thank goodness this is so because it is these differences which help create the markets and provide the value. :)
If the drift was caused by concerns about the going

no price was worth taking about a win - would better looking at the place market for signs of the or betting without the fav etc
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