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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Kemp12:45 1 If The Cap Fits 2 Solomon Grey 3 Diese Des Bieffes
Winc 1:30 1 Wait For Me 2 Different Gravey 3 Bastien
Weth 2:10 1 Shantou Flyer 2 Wakanda 3 Delusionofgrandeur
Kemp 3:05 1 Bristol De Mai 2 Fox Norton 3 Might Bite

Probables
Kemp12:45 1 If The Cap Fits 2 Diese Des Bieffes 3 Solomon Grey
Winc 1:30 1 Bastien 2 Persian Delight 3 Saffron Wells
Weth 2:10 1 Delusionofgrandeur 2 Get On The Yager 3 Aloomomo
Kemp 3:05 1 Might Bite 2 Bristol De Mai 3 Fox Norton

More than a little disappointing from a betting point of view for me at least.

12:45 all the prices are tight in this. Only Solomon Grey is anywhere near a reasonable price, but for me even that is too tight! If The Cap Fits should win this and weight hasn't come into my calculations
1:30 Another of these dreaded qualifying races that I try to leave alone until the final.
2:10 Shantou Flyer is the clear class horse on the bear figures but there is a worry he just maybe flattered with them. However this is a very big drop class wise and the jockey booking is very interesting. Looking at his near at hand entries it can only be assumed he is race fit and ready to go and this seems to be the selected of four/five races. Have to say I would have preferred him on a stiff course. Wakanda second in this last year but I can't really see anything in the profile to suggest this course favours him, yes he does have a course win but that was against a gutless horse. Delusionofgrandeur same trainer as the last mentioned and I have learned to fight shy when this trainer has two in a race the outsider usually comes out best. This horse has plenty to find class wise, and with the trainer in mind it has to be noted the jockey has some connections with the breeders so an extra effort can be expected. Based mainly on the jockey I'm having a small win loaded place on Shantou Flyer.
3:05 again prices too tight to be of any real interest betting wise. Of the top ranked I prefer Fox Norton as long as his stamina holds out. But I would really like to see Thistlecrack do the business. He doesn't make the rating even though he is the second best class wise because of that last run messing up his consistency I would put a line through it it's up to you to decided for yourselves. No bet for me and I just hope I don't have to put up with seeing Mr Henderson crying again it turns my stomach!!!

Be Lucky
 
Kemp 3:05 1 Holly Bush Henry 2 Pilgrims Bay 3 Sir Ivan

Probables
Kemp 3:05 1 Holly Bush Henry 2 Brandon Hill 3 Sir Ivan

With Chepstow off this leaves nothing for me today

3:05 Ratings reflect the odds on offer leaving no value. Holly Bush Henry is second best on the bare class figures but the "other" factors make him the top rated. Interesting that since the change of trainer he has been kept to hurdles winning three out of eight runs, however my figures say he is a better chaser than hurdler. This return to chasing could be interesting as a flat right handed course should be no problem. He hasn't run over this distance as a chaser but he does having winning form over it as a hurdler (personally I don't think that fact can be taken at face value. they are two very different disciplines. Pilgrims Bay is the class horse , just. His form is against top class horses opposed to the novice form of the top rated Although highly ambitious I think his last race was a/the target, and this course should hold no fears for him. Although the official handicapper says Sir Ivan is the best horse, my figures show he has plenty to find class wise. Much as I like the trainer and the fact the course should suit I can't really see him winning this A no bet race but if pushed I would side with Pilgrims Bay.

A little while ago Chesham put up a post saying something like why don't the VDW boys put up selections and reasons for the selections. I would like to ask the same question but to many/most of the other members of this board . It has crossed my mind that perhaps it is happening but in the secret place so can I ask is this a fact and how many races are being analysed in private? I would like to say if this keeps on I will be leaving this board as it isn't what I signed up for. I'm giving it until just after the new year to see if there is any improvement!! :think:

Be Lucky
 
Kemp 3:05 1 Holly Bush Henry 2 Pilgrims Bay 3 Sir Ivan

Probables
Kemp 3:05 1 Holly Bush Henry 2 Brandon Hill 3 Sir Ivan

With Chepstow off this leaves nothing for me today

3:05 Ratings reflect the odds on offer leaving no value. Holly Bush Henry is second best on the bare class figures but the "other" factors make him the top rated. Interesting that since the change of trainer he has been kept to hurdles winning three out of eight runs, however my figures say he is a better chaser than hurdler. This return to chasing could be interesting as a flat right handed course should be no problem. He hasn't run over this distance as a chaser but he does having winning form over it as a hurdler (personally I don't think that fact can be taken at face value. they are two very different disciplines. Pilgrims Bay is the class horse , just. His form is against top class horses opposed to the novice form of the top rated Although highly ambitious I think his last race was a/the target, and this course should hold no fears for him. Although the official handicapper says Sir Ivan is the best horse, my figures show he has plenty to find class wise. Much as I like the trainer and the fact the course should suit I can't really see him winning this A no bet race but if pushed I would side with Pilgrims Bay.

A little while ago Chesham put up a post saying something like why don't the VDW boys put up selections and reasons for the selections. I would like to ask the same question but to many/most of the other members of this board . It has crossed my mind that perhaps it is happening but in the secret place so can I ask is this a fact and how many races are being analysed in private? I would like to say if this keeps on I will be leaving this board as it isn't what I signed up for. I'm giving it until just after the new year to see if there is any improvement!! :think:

Be Lucky
Not happening mate - there is absolutely no such thing taking place - what there is, are various threads on differing themes with input open to all with exchange of ideas and help if required and certainly no acrimonious fall out which ever way the discussion goes or resulting results.
 
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In the last 24 hours 12 different threads have had input. Considering that one of the daily threads has had 18,450 views and 2066 posts since it started whilst some of the individual threads have around 10k in views and 1.2k to 1.5k in posts, it looks like we need to get out more.
 
A little while ago Chesham put up a post saying something like why don't the VDW boys put up selections and reasons for the selections. I would like to ask the same question but to many/most of the other members of this board . It has crossed my mind that perhaps it is happening but in the secret place so can I ask is this a fact and how many races are being analysed in private? I would like to say if this keeps on I will be leaving this board as it isn't what I signed up for. I'm giving it until just after the new year to see if there is any improvement!! :think:

Be Lucky
@mtoto This forum now has a three tier system OS IS & IS Blog, but none of them are exclusive or secret because any member can earn access to all (should they wish to) by way of regular contribution and effort. I went full cycle all three and have now done so again.I still post in all three areas but most of my contributions are now made in the IS Blog because that is where the majority of topics of interest to myself are discussed.

It contains no rudeness or lurking ,but rather plenty of activity and positive interactions which is what I seek from a forum.If you choose not to participate or contribute anywhere other than here then with respect you cannot have your cake and eat it.I accept your decision on this matter but also feel this should be reciprocated,because your frequent mention of private or secret places helps no one.
 
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@mick

I'm going to address my answer to you as you have inadvertently touch on some of the points I was trying to make. I have no doubt about the amount of posts and/or the the site etiquette!! But the point of my post seems to have been missed.

This forum now has a three tier system OS IS & IS Blog, but none of them are exclusive or secret because any member can earn access to all (should they wish to) by way of regular contribution and effort.

Now I seem to have missed how one applies to join this elite band of folk. I don't know if this was arranged while I was in hospital but I have never seen a post that explains how this is done or decided!!

I went full cycle all three and have now done so again.I still post in all three areas but most of my contributions are now made in the IS Blog because that is where the majority of topics of interest to myself are discussed.

Two things here I'm slightly confused as reading your post it suggests you are not that interested in stats/speed figures and I have to admit I definitely got the impression that form reading was you bag . If that isn't happening why the interest? I do know you are interested in how other folk work but surely in the end they have to at least work along the same lines of thinking as yourself.
The other contradiction seems to be no rudeness as I seem to remember you left the forum for a short time due to a falling out and for a former building work to take hum-bridge it must have involved some form of rudeness for you to take offence. The lurking I do agree has to be sorted out, but that is down to the owners and can't really be sorted by taking the interesting contributors of into a secret place.

If you choose not to participate or contribute anywhere other than here then with respect you cannot have your cake and eat it. I accept your decision on this matter but also feel this should be reciprocated,because your frequent mention of private or secret places helps no one.

If one isn't told how to join what else would you call it other than a secret place ? Having my cake and eating it is the last thing on my mind. If I wanted to do that I could take up the suggestions of more than a few to post on Facebook or start my own forum. But how would it go down if I advertised this on this board, and took the few interesting contributors off so their thoughts where hidden from this board and that is what it feels like to some here.

I want this forum to flourish but I really can't see how that is going to happen when the really interesting bits are hidden. I'm not in the slightest bit interested in rems of figures just taken from other forums-d/bases without any sort of explanation of why one is taken as a selection until after the race and a winning selection is pointed out ignoring the many losing possible other selections.

So if you and others are happy for me to leave so be it, but rest assured if I leave I won't do the same as many others and be back in a couple of days!!

@mlmrob

it looks like we need to get out more.

I can't speak for you and perhaps you do need to get out more , but for myself three strokes don't really help in that respect. They have effected the balance, but left the brain in working order so I'm more than happy to bandy words with the likes of you. Fair enough plenty of post but show me the last one that gave a selection backed up with reason for it. As one of the principal folk behind this secret place I did expect you to come on and defeated it but I have to say although I have very little interest in stats your was one of the few posts I used to look at as the stats where usually backed up with sound form reading. And while I may not have always agreed it was interesting to get a different slant on a race. All gone behind the secret curtain :headbang:

Be Lucky
 
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@mtoto i am not going to indulge in bold type quoting only the parts of your response which suit my purpose,because i am not seeking to win an argument i have no need.I think you know the answers to the questions you ask,but i will answer your final one first .I cannot speak for others but no i would not be happy to see you leave.With respect perhaps you need to ask yourself why you feel the need and then think about ways which you could implement to help effect the cure.

Re your confusion regarding myself its correct that i have little interest in just bare stats or charts,but plenty of members do and this is par for any forum and should be respected.Most people post on threads which interest them and tend to swerve those which do not.Re a past falling out correct ,but also a new beginning with a better understanding.We all have the opportunity to try this including yourself.

My take Re the OS or other parts of the forum ,is that you are saying your way or no way and this will never work nor should it.
 
I cannot speak for others but no i would not be happy to see you leave.With respect perhaps you need to ask yourself why you feel the need and then think about ways which you could implement to help effect the cure.

@mick the answer to part of the above is for the same reasons you have decided your posts belong in that blog. Apart from asking why/where are the posts that analyse the races how would you suggest I or anyone could effect the missing element??


i am not going to indulge in bold type quoting only the parts of your response which suit my purpose,because i am not seeking to win an argument i have no need.I think you know the answers to the questions you ask,but i will answer your final one first .

Not quite sure what you mean by bold type quotes only asking questions that suit ones purpose. I only use the bold to highlight quotes as I often, like today can't get the quotes button to work nothing derogatory is meant by it but an answer from you or even some others re the following question/statement maybe of some help.

I could take up the suggestions of more than a few to post on Facebook or start my own forum. But how would it go down if I advertised this on this board, and took the few interesting contributors off so their thoughts where hidden from this board, that is what it feels like to some on here? How would it go down and how many would just sit there and let it happen. While some of you may not be interested in my posts the amount of hits rather do suggest many are. As the posts can be read by non members I think it just may be seen as a shop window and perhaps it even brings in new members whereas with this other blog even established members can't see what is going on. Have to say that seems more than a little daft to me especially after reading a few of the answers to my first post on the subject yesterday
Not happening mate - there is absolutely no such thing taking place - what there is, are various threads on differing themes with input open to all with exchange of ideas and help if required and certainly no acrimonious fall out which ever way the discussion goes or resulting results.
Unless I'm reading the above wrong it is saying there is no race selections with reasons being shown on that blog .

This is my last post on this subject but I will be watching with bated breath to see if anything changes, otherwise like so many others I will just have to stop contributing, and only do it in private away from prying eyes.

A shame as I did enjoy the forum before it was taken over by the few!
 
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@mtoto This is making me dizzy,i answered the questions you asked, and responded to the comments you made (from my perspective) during post # 3005 which i posted on here yesterday afternoon.With hindsight the wisest course would have been to say nothing.I wish you and yours a happy and healthy 2018.
 
@mtoto as one member who when 1st joining was very impressed with your knowledge and posts on racing and believing that the place created by the mods is there for the good of all and interaction is to encouraged as a means of expanding the knowledge and the forum . At the moment there is no common target race that is put up for daily analysis, it fits with VDW ideas to look at the race with highest purse of the day - why don’t you or the any other interested member start a common race thread that all can interact with - exposing or hiding as much information regarding the pick as the poster is happy with. I would do it but not always available- but actually anyone can do it as once the thread is there anyone can post the race. So speed merchants VDW ers form buffs and of course lurkers please join in the new thread - UKBF Common Race Today’s race Ling 13.45 pm . The blog that you refer to as the secret place , is not actually a secret it was established to prevent certain persons from freeloading- not you or other certain posters - but some who were only here to steal work and ideas without putting anything back
 
Thanks for your intelligent post - I have been travelling all day so just catching up - as you say there is no need for a new thread - the problem was as you also say - limited interaction- so a thread that has no one “owner” and open to all to pitch in should benefit all those that join in


@markfinn Once again I have tried to use the quote and can't get it to work

I read your post several times and to be honest I still don't understand why the need for a separate /new thread. Folk did what I was looking for in fact a couple did far more than I expected, and in short a couple of the posts were brilliant. However that doesn't take away the fact it was all posted on the open forum and the only difference I can see is this, a thread that has no one “owner” That statement I just don't quite understand and have to say it looks political to me as I have never claimed ownership of any thread. I have gone out of my way to answer questions etc. I have even tried to get folk to ask their questions on here rather than in e-mails or private messages I have spent hours trying to explain and help others about how I work so I would say it is/was open to all and of benefit to anyone who wanted help. So this ownership aspect of your post is the only thing I don't quite understand. Even just recently a well known member was private messaging me and I asked him to do it on the forum and that was the last I heard from him. If folk think I try to keep this thread as an owner, I'm sorry but it is their thinking not mine.

RE this having random race every day for me doesn't really work as I have a set criteria of the standard of race I work and like yesterday and the race being suggested for today they just don't come within those requirements. Races that do can be worked reasonably easily and quickly so with the typing etc I find it hard to concentrate long enough to do a reasonable job. The next race s I will be looking at are on Saturday and those are the races I have started working on, I can write a critique do the maniacal work and readjust for none runners in my own time.

@mlmrob I thought your analyses was very good and a great help so thank you. I just wish there were more of them they would really help/liven up race analyse for many and while I also don't like the lurkers I really think the way to get rid of them is by culling.

So thanks to everyone that joined in and that is all I was asking for!! :hi::handgestures-thumbup:

Be Lucky
 
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@mtoto Re your above,i can see nothing political about Marks initiative.You identified a need (which was certainly not Marks) for more posts on the OS.Already it appears to be working.I will face the same problem as yourself in respect that i only work specific races (which during this winter will be AW hcaps 5-10fur) and i do not feel able to comment on races which i have not looked at in depth or as is often the case can draw no positive conclusions Re the outcome,but i will still contribute to the thread when able.

Over the past few years i have made many contributions to this blog,and i have little interest in matters VDW,but i did so to acknowledge and show appreciation for your good efforts yet when i have started threads on the OS and IS both of which you have access to how often have you reciprocated.? With respect communication is a two way street.

Re posting on any open forum in general.From my perspective during recent years i have made lots of posts on forums ,no big deal my choice but increasingly i find disillusionment Re the balance between givers and takers.For myself there is also another aspect ,because my bets are fewer they need to be larger to create a realistic turnover from which i take my profit.Many of those bets will be in lower grade races and in these circumstances i need to be aware of who is reading what i am sharing.

Whatever i am glad you are now feeling more positive about the forum.:)
 
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Thanks for your intelligent post - I have been travelling all day so just catching up - as you say there is no need for a new thread - the problem was as you also say - limited interaction- so a thread that has no one “owner” and open to all to pitch in should benefit all those that join in


@markfinn Once again I have tried to use the quote and can't get it to work

I read your post several times and to be honest I still don't understand why the need for a separate /new thread. Folk did what I was looking for in fact a couple did far more than I expected, and in short a couple of the posts were brilliant. However that doesn't take away the fact it was all posted on the open forum and the only difference I can see is this, a thread that has no one “owner” That statement I just don't quite understand and have to say it looks political to me as I have never claimed ownership of any thread. I have gone out of my way to answer questions etc. I have even tried to get folk to ask their questions on here rather than in e-mails or private messages I have spent hours trying to explain and help others about how I work so I would say it is/was open to all and of benefit to anyone who wanted help. So this ownership aspect of your post is the only thing I don't quite understand. Even just recently a well known member was private messaging me and I asked him to do it on the forum and that was the last I heard from him. If folk think I try to keep this thread as an owner, I'm sorry but it is their thinking not mine.

RE this having random race every day for me doesn't really work as I have a set criteria of the standard of race I work and like yesterday and the race being suggested for today they just don't come within those requirements. Races that do can be worked reasonably easily and quickly so with the typing etc I find it hard to concentrate long enough to do a reasonable job. The next race s I will be looking at are on Saturday and those are the races I have started working on, I can write a critique do the maniacal work and readjust for none runners in my own time.

@mlmrob I thought your analyses was very good and a great help so thank you. I just wish there were more of them they would really help/liven up race analyse for many and while I also don't like the lurkers I really think the way to get rid of them is by culling.

So thanks to everyone that joined in and that is all I was asking for!! :hi::handgestures-thumbup:

Be Lucky
Some only work one race a week - no one is asking every one to post daily it’s just a general drop in point . Your and several other thread are great and new members and even old members will be wary of posting conflicting views about some one’s considered views . It can be called manners or just a lack of self confidence either way it stifles debate and the airing of ideas. Looking at yesterday and even more impressive today’s post’s it would seem that there are several deep thinking articulate newish posters . If you don’t want or need to add to this thread that’s great - but it looks as though others share your initial concern of lack of forum interaction . I am learning all time and even negatives can be help bolster a view taken.
 
Newb 1:50 1 Theligny 2 Huntsman Son 3 Brave Eagle
Hay 2:10 1 Gold Opera 2 Belmount 3 Whiskey Chaser

Probables
Newb 1:50 1 Huntsman Son 2 Brave Eagle 3 Sir Antony Browne
Hay 2:10 1Whiskey Chaser Gold Opera Harry The Viking 3 Gold Opera

1:50 Theligny is the clear class horse but the amount of time spent off the course has to be a worry. Won this race last season so course and time of the year no real problem. Not a 100% sure about the heavy going if race fitness is a doubt.
Huntsman Son and Brave Eagle are the two strongest probables but both have something to find class wise. Huntsman Son is the strongest of the two and the course looks more favorable than for Brave Eagle. Tempted to risk a bet on Theligny in the hope of what allies him has been sorted but passing for today.
2:10 Only the top two have proven form in higher class and for me there is a major doubt re the going for Belmount. I had made my mind not to put a line through a horse based solely on going and to try and trust the trainer, but no matter how hard I try I just can't trust this trainer to have an unbiased opinion about his horses. So I'm putting a line through him based on the going. Whiskey Chaser does have winning form on the course and going but in a lower class, and the cross check says he may well struggle. This leaves Gold Opera the horse with the strongest recent and top ranked in the final analysis. The going should be no problem only the distance being a slight worry although the last race looks like a prep/ try out for this. Another that was seriously considered but another being left so no bets today.

I'm also going to join in with the new thread UKBF Common Race

While it is a little like trying to analyses foreign racing for me at least, as I no nothing about the tracks and running requirements etc. That said there are plenty on here who do and they are very knowledgeable so plenty to learn if your interested

Be Lucky
 
Chelt 12:15 1 Ainchea 2 Springtown Lake 3 Onefortheroadtom
Chelt 2:00 1 Top Gamble 2 Shantou Flyer 3 Ballyhill
Chelt 2:35 1 Arthur's Gift 2 Whataknight 3 Lovenormoney
Chelt 3:10 1 Old Guard 2 Colin's Sister 3 Rayvin Black

Probables
Chelt 12:15 1 Ainchea 2 Springtown Lake 3 Onefortheroadtom
Chelt 2:00 1 Burtons Well 2 Top Gamble 3 Sametegal
Chelt 2:35 1 Arthur's Gift 2 Red Rising 3 Lovenormoney
Chelt 3:10 1 Rayvin Black 2 Royal Vacation 3 Colin's Sister

In the past this was a meeting I always tried to get to. It has been a long time since I actually got to any meeting. Best Mates last Gold cup was the last one. However after going through these four races I don't think I'm missing much betting wise or even from a watching point of view

12:15 I make this very tight class wise between Ainchea and Tikkanbar, Tikkanbar failing on consistency and other factors. While the undulating course should suit Tikkanbar there has to be worries about the stiffness so of these two I would side with Ainchea as although he hasn't got winning form on the course he has shown he can act on it. The prices are too tight for me and the race looks very competitive as the second and third rated are more than capable of taking this. No bet.
2:00 I have Shantou Flyer as the clear class horse but as I said last week I do worry he is flattered by those figures . However flattered or not he is still well clear even if a few points are knocked of.This stiff course may just be the answer as he has shown he can cope with it by winning this race last season. It could well be wishful thinking but I thought he was well in the race and just got out sped in the final stages, the stiff finish may help.Top Gamble profile rather suggests this isn't his course, yes he has run some fair races here but still to win one.Ballyhill another I can't see anything to suggest this course will be of help. Shantou Flyer small win loaded place but this will be the last time I use those figures unless he runs much better.
2:35 Only Whataknight is the sort of price to interest me and he is another the course looks a major problem. For me Arthur's Gift ticks most if not all the box's apart from price He is improving acts on the course and going. Lovenormoney looks to be the biggest danger to me, can act on an undulating course and handle heavy going. Class wise not very far behind Arthur but his price isn't good enough for me to take a punt.
3:10 I have waited all season for Old Guard to run in a race he stood a chance of winning (on the figures) but apart from his price today I would have to pass on him here as I think the heavy is against him big time. Colin's Sister is just the class horse, although the figures were scored on a "speed" has shown he can handle a stiff course and an undulating one. Once again the price is too tight for me. Rayvin Black although the figures and his probable rating give him a chance I can't really see it, so again a no bet race for me

Be Lucky
 
Chep 2:05 1 Vicente 2 Wild West Wind 3 Final Nudge
Chep 2:45 1 Flemcara 2 Battle Of Ideas 3 Court Frontier
Sand 3:35 1 Brillare Momento 2 Call Me Lord 3 Our Merlin

Probables
Chep 2:05 1 Chase The Spud 2 Wild West Wind 3 Ask The Weatherman
Chep 2:45 1 Flemcara 2 Battle Of Ideas 3 Court Frontier
Sand 3:35 1 Our Merlin 2 Drops Of Jupitor 3 Call Me Lord

2:05 Vicente, clear class horse with proven form in a higher class and with the best recent form. Can he handle the heavy going has to be the question, but if there is any serious doubts I find it hard to believe this trainer would risk him with decent races coming up in the spring. Wild West Wind should handle the going and course and if he stays the distance stands a fair chance of closing the class gap. That gap is quite big at the moment and he has a hard last race to get over in a short time. Final Nudge second best class wise of these three and can handle heavy, the doubt with him has to be the undulating track in this class as he has shown he can handle much better class on a "speed" track. Vicente small win loaded place.
2:45 Flemcara is the only runner with an entry on the d/base but his price is too short for me. Apart from that I do wonder if he will handle the quicker undulating course/track
3:35 Brillare Momento top rated on the figures, and the stiff course should be no problem. The major problem could just be the going, I know some swear by the going making a difference to the result and I have tried to swerve away from that thinking. However three poor(ish) run with soft in the going can't just be ignored. Drops Of Jupitor did have a serious look at this one as the stiff right-handed course should suit, gave up on him as the price is too short.

UKBF Common Race

Nice to see this thread has taken off, I'm going to put a few thoughts about it from my point of view on here so it can't be mistaken/taken as any sort of criticism.

I have found it very interesting as it confirms my previous thoughts about which races to concentrate on. It is showing my the way I work the better class races are the ones to concentrate on. I read quite often a 5/2 winner pays the same for a Cheltenham top class race as a seller I can only agree, but did the seller winning conform to its profile was it easy to find? I find it hard enough to keep up with the top class arcing and if I tried to include many of the races that thread is putting up It would be a never ending job just to keep the d/base up to date. Because I can't easily find the class of many of those horses I don't/can't join in with anything worth while. I wish all who take part in it the best of luck and have to admit I'm more than a little surprised at some of the winners found as many have no form, or form the way I look at it. Many but not all are short prices for the form they have produced and I do wonder if this is part of the reason low class racing has a bad name for strokes being pulled!

While I find it all very interesting, I have seen nothing that is of a major help to me improving my selection methods and at the moment at least stick with if it isn't broke don't try to fix it. It is still for me that/this horse, in this race and it is tried and tested. Does it have the class and all the other attributes to win this race or show a profit that is all I'm looking for.

Be Lucky
 
Chep 2:05 1 Vicente 2 Wild West Wind 3 Final Nudge
Chep 2:45 1 Flemcara 2 Battle Of Ideas 3 Court Frontier
Sand 3:35 1 Brillare Momento 2 Call Me Lord 3 Our Merlin

Probables
Chep 2:05 1 Chase The Spud 2 Wild West Wind 3 Ask The Weatherman
Chep 2:45 1 Flemcara 2 Battle Of Ideas 3 Court Frontier
Sand 3:35 1 Our Merlin 2 Drops Of Jupitor 3 Call Me Lord

2:05 Vicente, clear class horse with proven form in a higher class and with the best recent form. Can he handle the heavy going has to be the question, but if there is any serious doubts I find it hard to believe this trainer would risk him with decent races coming up in the spring. Wild West Wind should handle the going and course and if he stays the distance stands a fair chance of closing the class gap. That gap is quite big at the moment and he has a hard last race to get over in a short time. Final Nudge second best class wise of these three and can handle heavy, the doubt with him has to be the undulating track in this class as he has shown he can handle much better class on a "speed" track. Vicente small win loaded place.
2:45 Flemcara is the only runner with an entry on the d/base but his price is too short for me. Apart from that I do wonder if he will handle the quicker undulating course/track
3:35 Brillare Momento top rated on the figures, and the stiff course should be no problem. The major problem could just be the going, I know some swear by the going making a difference to the result and I have tried to swerve away from that thinking. However three poor(ish) run with soft in the going can't just be ignored. Drops Of Jupitor did have a serious look at this one as the stiff right-handed course should suit, gave up on him as the price is too short.

UKBF Common Race

Nice to see this thread has taken off, I'm going to put a few thoughts about it from my point of view on here so it can't be mistaken/taken as any sort of criticism.

I have found it very interesting as it confirms my previous thoughts about which races to concentrate on. It is showing my the way I work the better class races are the ones to concentrate on. I read quite often a 5/2 winner pays the same for a Cheltenham top class race as a seller I can only agree, but did the seller winning conform to its profile was it easy to find? I find it hard enough to keep up with the top class arcing and if I tried to include many of the races that thread is putting up It would be a never ending job just to keep the d/base up to date. Because I can't easily find the class of many of those horses I don't/can't join in with anything worth while. I wish all who take part in it the best of luck and have to admit I'm more than a little surprised at some of the winners found as many have no form, or form the way I look at it. Many but not all are short prices for the form they have produced and I do wonder if this is part of the reason low class racing has a bad name for strokes being pulled!

While I find it all very interesting, I have seen nothing that is of a major help to me improving my selection methods and at the moment at least stick with if it isn't broke don't try to fix it. It is still for me that/this horse, in this race and it is tried and tested. Does it have the class and all the other attributes to win this race or show a profit that is all I'm looking for.

Be Lucky
I to have been surprised at some of the races put up. I think it shows that there are many more ways and more classes of race that can be analysed profitably. The specialist is possibly more profitable because his number of bets are limited and has a knowledge of the same horses of the same class run in the same races over and again.
I don’t follow horses and have no horse data base so every contest is a new event and I prefer to work with numbers , accumatting evidence for the numbers unfortunately we need a few runs to reflect the true position. Some of the comments on that thread are price less - owners stats - the fact this trainer runs horses into the ground before passing them on - are just two examples - you are not going to get such info easily from many other sources. @mick has pointed out that the winner is found daily and distillation of the selections gives a narrow band of probables.

So tip up and then consider what others have posted in order refine the process .
 
From a win perspective, Vincent might find the Going tough at Chepstow, when it’s get heavy at Chepstow it is really heavy. I think they will try to get his BHA Rating down in time for the Scottish National

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