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Jockey / Trainer Combo

retriever

Stallion
Hi Guys,
Hopefully someone can help with something that seems a little puzzling to me.
I have a Trend race to do tomorrow.....there is just one.....the 7.15 Sandown.
Now my 1st attempt is throwing up the forecast favourite Fev Rover which appears to me to be the best horse in the race with a perfect draw.

However, I am puzzled ( or put off ) by the Jockey booking. Now it's going to appear strange to you if I say Ben Curtis as he is normally a very decent horseman, but his recent strike rate is only 4-10 %, when he is normally around 15-18%.......so a little uncomforting.

But this is not the main concern. It's the fact that he has only had 5 rides for the Trainer.....Richard Fahey.....since 2016 (0-5). Admittedly the last 4 have been in the last 2 months but I don't get it. Why so few rides?
I know Fahey has his two main jockeys, Tony Hamilton and Paul Hanagan, but lots of other jockeys get lots of other rides.

I'm looking to oppose Fev Rover and use a different Trend line but it could be risky. There are two others that come up that I would prefer to dutch.

Any thoughts on why so few rides?
I don't know if I am seeing a mountain where it's only a molehill. Tell me if I am.
 
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I'm looking to oppose Fev Rover and use a different Trend line but it could be risky. There are two others that come up that I would prefer to dutch.

Not sure on why so few rides. But I have four of the 7 on my watchlist and will be side-stepping the race.
When you say "recent strike rate" how recent are you looking at?

Timeform shows him doing ok for this season to date, in fact he seems to doing better than most.

curtis.png

As a jockey who gets 60% of his rides from the all weather normally, its been three weeks since his last ride at an all weather track, I think the break and resumption of racing has thrown a lot of plans and "normals" out of whack. I would not be unduly worried by apparent "form" from a small sample of a couple of weeks rides if my money was on him ... but I know much less than most.

If I were forced to take on Fev tomorrow it'd probably be with Dubai Fountain and Setarhe, Good luck with your play, i'll be watching the race with interest.
 
When you say "recent strike rate" how recent are you looking at?
Very recent - inside the last 30 days. Probably being over cautious. But as you say he is normally better than average - hence my concern.

( It's a habit I've got into as I watch Hollie Doyle's s/r over the month as I am convinced her form dips due to her ............( fill in the blank ).
Is that wrong?.....lol. Obviously not going to apply to Ben though!!

Do you know - I had almost forgotten about the virus - thanks for reminding me and the information re. the AW.

Yes, it's a tough race. I have those two ( preferring the latter ) but just need to rule out Concessions, who is the only non-IRE horse in the race but they have a fair record in this race ( although not in recent years - so it may be a null stat ).
Whatever I come up with has to be done via the stats though.
 
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It is interesting that Fev Rover has come here as she is in the Group 3 Princess Margaret on Sunday. Her second to Dandalla, also owned by Bradley, has to be upgraded as the filly had to be reshod in the pre prelim ring. She was a bit skittish and the farrier couldn't get the shoe on and she had to race without it. She went straight from the pre parade ring onto the course and straight into the race.
 
Yes, I was leaning towards Setarhe T tacker when pete pete mentioned who he'd go with. Not sure I understand your soft ground angle - horses going well on soft doesn't necessarily mean they'd run better on firmer ground....does it?
Concessions did open lower than forecast but has now drifted out - not sure here.
Dubai Fountain - small races - Class 5 - untested and unknown perhaps?

Before mlmrob mlmrob came up with that shoe information ( how do you know all this??...lol ) I was getting a feeling of a 'non-race', especially with the Princess Margaret race on Sunday coming up, but I now feel that perhaps Fahey thinks she is capable of winning both. And she seems like a horse that can turn around quickly ( 2 weeks ) or is that the case for most 2yo's?

I am even more confused now. I think I am just going to re-Trend and see where it takes me. Should be a very interesting race. Thanks all.
 
Fev.png
Set.png

Taking T tacker comment regarding G-S going I thought I'd investigate.
Conveniently enough they have both ran 2nd to the same horse Dandalla.

Fev - 6f - Soft - 1m 11.93s - HD
Set - 6f - G to S - 1m 16.38s - 6 lengths

On an even benchmark of Dandalla the difference in time ( 4.45s ) would equate to the going difference.
So is Fev 6 lengths better than Set over 6f ?
Reading the comments Set was slow to break, but Fev also ran at the rear early on - possibly no difference there.
To my eyes, Fev appears better by finishing closer to Dandalla.

How would you read this?

Nb./ Love the race comment for Setarhe 'flashed tail when struck with whip'. I do think whips should be banned from use in the final furlong. I'm pretty sure horses would be going in the right direction by then. Simply waving it alongside should be enough at this stage of the race.
 
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A whip is an essential part of steering a horse at speed, if entering the final furlong your horse starts to veer do you let it do so or use the whip to correct it ???
 
A whip is an essential part of steering a horse at speed, if entering the final furlong your horse starts to veer do you let it do so or use the whip to correct it ???
I would have thought just the threat of waving it alongside its eyes would suffice. Jockeys use whips to make them move faster, not steer them.....that's what bridles are for, aren't they? No matter.....I'm not going to think about it here anymore.
 
Yes, I was leaning towards Setarhe T tacker when pete pete mentioned who he'd go with. Not sure I understand your soft ground angle - horses going well on soft doesn't necessarily mean they'd run better on firmer ground....does it?
Concessions did open lower than forecast but has now drifted out - not sure here.
Dubai Fountain - small races - Class 5 - untested and unknown perhaps?

Before mlmrob mlmrob came up with that shoe information ( how do you know all this??...lol ) I was getting a feeling of a 'non-race', especially with the Princess Margaret race on Sunday coming up, but I now feel that perhaps Fahey thinks she is capable of winning both. And she seems like a horse that can turn around quickly ( 2 weeks ) or is that the case for most 2yo's?

I am even more confused now. I think I am just going to re-Trend and see where it takes me. Should be a very interesting race. Thanks all.
Hi retriever retriever , sorry to take so long to answer but a bit busy/
Yes on a straightforward line through dandalla FEN ROVER has the beating of SETARHE but i wonder if DANDALLA ran her race at newmarket so maybe so this 7f on g-f and around the bend will be a very different type of race, certainly not a 2 horse race either but a good race.
 
Hi @retrieveThe Richard Hannon , Concessions comes from the Empress Stakes and 4 past winners came from this race. Hannover won tonight’s race with a 8/1 shot In 2017 and that one was 6th in the Empress Stakes
 
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