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Jock Bingham's assessment of VDW's selection, Valiant Warrior

JennyK

JennyK

Mare
Jock Bingham believed that VDW's "Best bet/next best" selections - Travado, Rivage Bleu, Arthurs Minstrel, Ever Smile, Valiant Warrior and Killeshin - were found by "four different strategies" and was proposing to publish on each. He had a typescript on one, Valiant Warrior" ready but it was not published before his death and as far as I can tell has not been published posthumously. I have no idea whether the other three publications he planned were in draft form.

I attach a photo of the front page of his "Valiant Warrior" booklet. From what I've seen just glancing at it, the contents are what has all the appearance of a back-fitted system, but that is not to say it doesn't bear on how VDW found Valiant Warrior.
 
I think it looks like a back fitted-system because of such things to "look for" as "last time out ---- beaten 13/4l maximum" and "no last time out runs from Lingfield and Chester", which suggest they were added to exclude losers he had found.

The approach could, I suppose, be tested on some current and future races as all the elements are presumably still in the Racing Post.
 
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JennyK JennyK

I would be really interested in seeing this in it's entirety.

I know that this is a massive ask - but any chance that you could put up all of the pages of the draft copy!!!

As I say, I realise that this is a big ask - and I completely understand if you feel that you don't want to spend your time doing so (perhaps you could do it a few pages at a time, so the task is a little less onerous).

By doing so the material would be digitised and more easily held and accessed from an archive point of view.

From a VDW point of view it doesn't add anything to the debate - but I feel that it is a good opportunity to add to the wider archive.
 
Pitmatic Pitmatic

As far as I know, the typescript was never turned into a publication, and Jock Bingham died some years ago. The typescript has a copyright claim on the back page though - the usual phrasing - and presumably someone inherited Mr Bingham's estate and could own the copyright.

I will message dave58 dave58 and if he says it is all right from the forum administrators' point of view, I'll be glad to add the rest of the typescript over the next few days.
 
JennyK JennyK

I fully understand your concerns - and really appreciate your willingness to spend the time putting it up, if permitted.

Thank you very much!!!!
 
Hi JennyK

Attached is something I received in Dec 1997, along with a letter and other stuff advertising the method. I must have sent for details of this. It was sent to me by Alan Comish, Jock Bingham's mate (or business partner). I did not pay for the method. Somebody sent it me for nothing.

Ultimate 1.jpgUltimate 2.jpg
 
Hi G Garry - don't know if you've seen this, but on another thread I put up a post copying a word document which I had called "Jock Bingham - The Ultimate Conclusion".

I can't remember where I got it from, nor could I guarantee that it is the same method - but it does differ from or alternatively is a previous incarnation of the "Valiant Warrior" draft method outlined by JennyK JennyK .

Click this link to go to that post.......

Jock Bingham "Ultimate Conclusion"
 
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Jock Bingham’s The Ultimate Conclusion

RACES TO CONSIDER

3yo + graded handicaps up to 16 runners-flat.

Graded handicap chases up to 16 runners up to 9yo N.H.

1m4f maximum race distance flat.

2m4f minimum race distance N.H.

Start with the highest class (value to winner divided by 100) race L.T.O. (horses 4yo=7yo flat).

Look for 1st; 2nd; or 3rd in any of the last three races - use most recent race.

Check if the official OR for the current race is the same or lower than the race in which it was placed 1st; 2nd; or 3rd.

Check if the class of the current race is the same or lower than the race in which it was placed and showed form.

Check now to see if the horse is carrying more weight than the race in which it showed form.

Check if the form was achieved at today’s distance or further.

Check if the horse is a distance winner.

Form 1st 2nd 3rd only valid from class 30 or higher no novice chases/hurdles.

L.T.O. must have been a class 45 or higher.

RACES TO IGNORE

Rated stakes handicaps, claiming handicaps, novice handicaps.

No heavy going or patches.


As kindly posted by Pitmatic Pitmatic
 
Following on from my previous post. These are the results of the Ultimate Conclusion that was sent to me.

2/5/97 Newm 3,45 Champagne Prince W7/1
2/5/97 Muss 5,00 Grey Kingdom W9/4
22/5/97 Newc 4,30 Lady Sheriff W11/10
24/5/97 Donc 3,20 Waypoint W4/1
30/5/97 Ayr 3,00 Wafir W4/1
2/6/97 Thir 6,45 Benzoe W7/2
11/6/97 Ham 8,00 Philstar W13/8
23/6/97 Wind 7,10 Willow Dale W6/1
2/7/97 Eps 7,20 Grey Kingdom W3/1
4/7/97 Sand 4,10 Therhea Lost
4/7/97 Hayd 9,30 Blessingindisguise W11/10
5/7/97 Chep 2,55 Capilano Princess W9/1
11/7/97 York 2,10 Dashing Blue W8/1
4/8/97 Rip 3,30 Campaspe W5/2
4/8/97 Carl 7,50 Al’s Alibi W5/1
8/8/97 Newm 6,55 Mr Bergerac W11/4
9/8/97 Redc 3,10 Mountgate Lost
13/8/97 Ham 6,30 Natural Key W11/2
27/8/97 Carl 3,10 Needle Match W5/1
27/8/97 Brig 4,50 Ivory’s Grab Hire W4/1
27/9/97 Hayd 3,00 Patsy Grimes W5/1
28/9/97 Brig 3,40 Tonjours Riviera W15/2
7/10/97 Redc 2,40 Polar Prospect W5/1
22/10/97 Yarm 5,20 Fahs W9/1
6/12/97 Weth 2,40 Cumbrian Challenge W3/1
17/12/97 Bang 3,10 Brambleberry Lost

This one the Conclusion paragraph reads;
“All the usual pointers apply, performed well in better class races now being dropped ready to collect. – WRONG – The last race was a Novice Chase . We never (well almost never) take form from a Novice event. It is not reliable. The form readers “claim” was that he got ‘Nov’ entry in the paper confused with the date November. This example shows the importance of having your brain in full working order.

“SHOULD HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED AS A QUALIFIER”

20/12/97 Hayd 3,10 Valiant Warrior Lost

This one reads;
“An awkward one this. The third place LTO was quite good but was beaten by similarly weighted (class) horses. A good performance counts more against higher class horses. A borderline selection in which to be frank, we probably allowed our desire to provide a bet for clients to get the better of caution.”

“WE SHOULD PRACTICE WHAT WE PREACH”

6/2/98 Ling 3,40 Orswell Lad W6/4
20/2/98 Sand 4,30 Philip’s Woody W3/1

And finally,

8/4/98 Asc 2,30 Bertone W8/1

Each selection was printed on an A4 sheet with its last couple of races and a conclusion.
As you can imagine, in between the dates shown above there would have been an awful lot of qualifiers which lost.
 
Pitmatic said:
Hi G Garry - don't know if you've seen this, but on another thread I put up a post copying a word document which I had called "Jock Bingham - The Ultimate Conclusion".

I can't remember where I got it from, nor could I guarantee that it is the same method - but it does differ from or alternatively is a previous incarnation of the "Valiant Warrior" draft method outlined by JennyK JennyK .

Click this link to go to that post.......

Jock Bingham "Ultimate Conclusion"
Click to expand...
As I said to JennyK JennyK the other day, certainly it is of interest to read Jock's thoughts on the method as he sees it, but the idea that VDW's Best Bet/Next Best method only found 30 horses a season is a bit preposterous to me. It came across as much more likely there was something to find most day days as VDW said he noticed CH4 were covering racing at 2 meetings on the day Travado and RB won and said he went through the cards just to give some examples. As he also did the same a few months later in another letter.

And as JennyK JennyK said, there is strong evidence of systematic style back fitting in his conclusions. I'd say it was long odds against Jock having solved the method. Especially as his books clearly showed he hadn't solved VDW's original methods, with VDW even saying as much in a foreword.
 
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