Jack's blog attempt
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
hedgehog
Dam
I've been thinking about the market in a race and I don't think it is as good as it was. VDW uses the betting forecast to get the 3 CRs but the odds compilers are as much at a loss as we are when big odds horses go on to win. The SP was the best measure of a horse's chance of winning only to be improved on by bfsp. I think the current markets do not represent all the information available due to vested interests. The trainers and owners have lost a lot of money and it is only sensible they would want to recoup that by plotting coups. In the past that information would be fed into the market as bookies would hear a whisper and shorten their odds. I don't think this is happening now as the bookies are willing to take a small hit from the owners bets knowing when a 25/1 horse goes in they make a massive profit from the rest of the book.
The overround falls heaviest on outsiders with the result the odds offered overestimate the chance of a win but I think if you did an actual/ expected for the odds this year and last it would be above 1 for outsiders.
If the market is flawed how do you judge past performances?
The overround falls heaviest on outsiders with the result the odds offered overestimate the chance of a win but I think if you did an actual/ expected for the odds this year and last it would be above 1 for outsiders.
If the market is flawed how do you judge past performances?
Jackform
Gelding
Have the Nicholl's yard got the hunter chase sewn up as indicated by all the runes?
Fontwell (going forecast S with some GS) market odds from 09.50.
4.40 Market expected no's 4, 7, 13 indicating a win restricted to these.
4. Sametegal 4/11 P Nicholls/HCobden (2nd 2/5)
7. Kashmir Peak 13/2 (4th 11/1)
13. The Galloping Bear (had an eyesight problem myself earlier
) 7/1 (won 10/3)
Comment: Sametgal forecast as the very strong favourite and should only have to turn up to win. Could we try ether of the other two named each-way? (Checked the RP betting forecast theoretical overround earlier and it was 140.37%, so a rubbish race to bet in).
ATR form verdict in comparison.
SAMETEGAL was successful in this sphere at Wincanton earlier this month and could continue on the upwards curve for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. The 12-year-old wasn't performing badly in tougher races than this earlier in the season and has a touch of class compared to these. Kashmir Peak was consistent in this format in 2020, finishing second behind Minella Rocco at Warwick 13 months ago. Djin Conti may prove best of the rather modest remainder.
Top Tip: SAMETEGAL (4)
Watch out for: KASHMIR PEAK (7)
Fontwell (going forecast S with some GS) market odds from 09.50.
4.40 Market expected no's 4, 7, 13 indicating a win restricted to these.
4. Sametegal 4/11 P Nicholls/HCobden (2nd 2/5)
7. Kashmir Peak 13/2 (4th 11/1)
13. The Galloping Bear (had an eyesight problem myself earlier
) 7/1 (won 10/3)Comment: Sametgal forecast as the very strong favourite and should only have to turn up to win. Could we try ether of the other two named each-way? (Checked the RP betting forecast theoretical overround earlier and it was 140.37%, so a rubbish race to bet in).
ATR form verdict in comparison.
SAMETEGAL was successful in this sphere at Wincanton earlier this month and could continue on the upwards curve for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. The 12-year-old wasn't performing badly in tougher races than this earlier in the season and has a touch of class compared to these. Kashmir Peak was consistent in this format in 2020, finishing second behind Minella Rocco at Warwick 13 months ago. Djin Conti may prove best of the rather modest remainder.
Top Tip: SAMETEGAL (4)
Watch out for: KASHMIR PEAK (7)
Last edited:
Jackform
Gelding
Plumpton with a below mid-grade Monday card with 12 non-runners already down the card -is it because of the going? Anyway these are just my fancies more-or-less by recent form.
Plumpton (going forecast G with some GF) Market odds from around 10.15
1.00 Summit Like herbie 7/4
1.30 Natrural History 9/10
2.05 Dorking Lad 8/13
2.40 Jackson Hill 7/4
Plumpton (going forecast G with some GF) Market odds from around 10.15
1.00 Summit Like herbie 7/4
1.30 Natrural History 9/10
2.05 Dorking Lad 8/13
2.40 Jackson Hill 7/4
Jackform
Gelding
hedgehog, I have to admit that I don't have much of a problem with the betting market prices, which I regard as fairly critical. I mean if you are operating in any market and don't have any idea of the value of what you are buying then you are on a loser before you start. My starting point is the early market around 10.00 to note any non-runners, possible changes in conditions for racing and what the layers are offering. Checking the card for the state of true mathematical odds where less than half the field is shorter than that is regarded as 'restricted' and the shorter odds are best considered. More than half the field indicates an open contest and longer odds come into the reckoning. Take yesterdays hunter chase with 16 runners as a case in point.
Jackform
Gelding
As I understand it from the Cheltenham 21 thread today the only ploy to be in the money on Tuesday will be support one of the first two in the market -just too easy then? 
. That being the case I thought I might have a practise at Stratford today, except I might have a different opinion regarding open looking races according to the market.
Stratford (going forecast Chs S with some GS, Hdl GS) market odds from 10.40.
12.30 Restricted race market expected no's 2, 5 indicating a win restricted to these.
Casa Loupi 2/5 (danger Stepney Causeway 5/1)
1.00 Restricted race market expected no's 1, 2, 4 indicating a win restricted to these.
Kap Auteuil 15/8 (danger Shut The Box 7/4)
1.30 Open race market expected no's 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, possible contender 6/1-12/1, not expected lnoger than 12/1.
Presuming 6/1 (looks difficult for punters on paper)
2.03 Restricted race market expected no's 2, 3, 4, 5 indicating a win restricted to these.
Subcontinent 11/2 (danger Orrisdale 7/2)
2.33 Open race market expected no's 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 11. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, possible contender 6/1, not expected longer than 12/1.
Will Sting 8/1 (Beach Break 8/1).
3.03 Restricted race market expected no's 5, 7, 9, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.
Golden Tobbouggan 1/1 (danger Maitree Express 7/2)
3.33 Restricted race market expected no's 5, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14.
Parramount 4/1 (danger Earth Company 4/1)
Comment: That's my take on considering the market approach for selection for what it's worth. ( mind you it pays to be cautious with my ideas as I am 7 years older than Joe Biden and look at the state of him!)
. That being the case I thought I might have a practise at Stratford today, except I might have a different opinion regarding open looking races according to the market.Stratford (going forecast Chs S with some GS, Hdl GS) market odds from 10.40.
12.30 Restricted race market expected no's 2, 5 indicating a win restricted to these.
Casa Loupi 2/5 (danger Stepney Causeway 5/1)
1.00 Restricted race market expected no's 1, 2, 4 indicating a win restricted to these.
Kap Auteuil 15/8 (danger Shut The Box 7/4)
1.30 Open race market expected no's 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, possible contender 6/1-12/1, not expected lnoger than 12/1.
Presuming 6/1 (looks difficult for punters on paper)
2.03 Restricted race market expected no's 2, 3, 4, 5 indicating a win restricted to these.
Subcontinent 11/2 (danger Orrisdale 7/2)
2.33 Open race market expected no's 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 11. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, possible contender 6/1, not expected longer than 12/1.
Will Sting 8/1 (Beach Break 8/1).
3.03 Restricted race market expected no's 5, 7, 9, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.
Golden Tobbouggan 1/1 (danger Maitree Express 7/2)
3.33 Restricted race market expected no's 5, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14.
Parramount 4/1 (danger Earth Company 4/1)
Comment: That's my take on considering the market approach for selection for what it's worth. ( mind you it pays to be cautious with my ideas as I am 7 years older than Joe Biden and look at the state of him!)
Jackform
Gelding
My eldest lad (he is 62 in May) inquired re the 2 races omitted from the early market thread Chel day two. I replied with:
In the 4.15 I did an upside-down hcap selection as my in depth check was so far out yesterday. An 'upside-down hcap' is where starting from the bottom of the card find the runner that was placed last time out ridden by a jockey from the current seasons top twenty. In this case the selection was Not That Fuisse/Harry Skelton as an each-way shot.
In the 3.40 the early market did not fit my approach so I did my own form chart and came up with Easyland 25, Some Neck 19, Tiger Roll 18, Le Breuil 15. With Easyland being too short I would go Some Neck each-way.
In the 4.15 I did an upside-down hcap selection as my in depth check was so far out yesterday. An 'upside-down hcap' is where starting from the bottom of the card find the runner that was placed last time out ridden by a jockey from the current seasons top twenty. In this case the selection was Not That Fuisse/Harry Skelton as an each-way shot.
In the 3.40 the early market did not fit my approach so I did my own form chart and came up with Easyland 25, Some Neck 19, Tiger Roll 18, Le Breuil 15. With Easyland being too short I would go Some Neck each-way.
Jackform
Gelding
My eldest disagrees with my early market selection Chel 1.55 Gowel Road and has opted for Cayd Boy. I have come back with a full check for him:
Cheltenham (going forecast GS) RP Spotlight selects 17. Ganapathi (1 pundit agrees 9 oppose)
1.55 Market expected 10.05 no’s 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 23, 24 indicating an open contest.
3. 22/1 (My info source) (16/1 mkt)
4. 25/1 (20/1)
6. 33/1 (20/1)
9. 28/1 (6/1)
10. 22/1 (8/1) Third Time Lucky 1 tip (4th choice)
12. 28/1 (13/2)
14. 25/1 (25/1)
15. 25/1 (25/1)
16. 25/1 (20/1)
17. 20/1 (11/2) Ganapathi 2 tips (1st choice)
18. 28/1 (9/1)
20. 22/1 (16/1)
23. 22/1 (14/1) Fifty Ball (3rd choice)
24. 28/1 (14/1)
Comment: 1 point each the 3 named plus no 5. Darasso 22/1 (16/1) (2nd choice).
ATR form verdict in comparison.
Ganapathi, who has been running in Graded company, will appreciate this drop in both class and trip and looks potentially well treated off a mark of 140. A negative, though, would be his lack of experience in a race that will almost certainly be rough. Dan Skelton has won three of the last five runnings of this event (with Willie Mullins collecting on the other two occasions) and he looks to have a chance with Third Time Lucki, who ran well behind subsequent Supreme Novice third For Pleasure here in November. You Raised Me Up made a winning return at Naas last month and is interesting for the shrewd Martin Brassil, but the Irish handicap form could be key here, particularly a race run at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. Drop The Anchor edged out Champagne Gold in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Leopardstown 41 days ago and both of them are likely to show up well again, but a chance is taken on one from further back that day, ECLAIR DE BEAUFEU, who was a big eye-catcher when staying on for sixth. The seven-year-old appears to be coming to the boil at just the right time and makes plenty of appeal off a mark 10lb lower than when runner-up in last season's Grand Annual Chase.
Top Tip: ECLAIR DE BEAUFEU (18)
Watch out for: CHAMPAGNE GOLD (9)
Cheltenham (going forecast GS) RP Spotlight selects 17. Ganapathi (1 pundit agrees 9 oppose)
1.55 Market expected 10.05 no’s 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 23, 24 indicating an open contest.
3. 22/1 (My info source) (16/1 mkt)
4. 25/1 (20/1)
6. 33/1 (20/1)
9. 28/1 (6/1)
10. 22/1 (8/1) Third Time Lucky 1 tip (4th choice)
12. 28/1 (13/2)
14. 25/1 (25/1)
15. 25/1 (25/1)
16. 25/1 (20/1)
17. 20/1 (11/2) Ganapathi 2 tips (1st choice)
18. 28/1 (9/1)
20. 22/1 (16/1)
23. 22/1 (14/1) Fifty Ball (3rd choice)
24. 28/1 (14/1)
Comment: 1 point each the 3 named plus no 5. Darasso 22/1 (16/1) (2nd choice).
ATR form verdict in comparison.
Ganapathi, who has been running in Graded company, will appreciate this drop in both class and trip and looks potentially well treated off a mark of 140. A negative, though, would be his lack of experience in a race that will almost certainly be rough. Dan Skelton has won three of the last five runnings of this event (with Willie Mullins collecting on the other two occasions) and he looks to have a chance with Third Time Lucki, who ran well behind subsequent Supreme Novice third For Pleasure here in November. You Raised Me Up made a winning return at Naas last month and is interesting for the shrewd Martin Brassil, but the Irish handicap form could be key here, particularly a race run at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. Drop The Anchor edged out Champagne Gold in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Leopardstown 41 days ago and both of them are likely to show up well again, but a chance is taken on one from further back that day, ECLAIR DE BEAUFEU, who was a big eye-catcher when staying on for sixth. The seven-year-old appears to be coming to the boil at just the right time and makes plenty of appeal off a mark 10lb lower than when runner-up in last season's Grand Annual Chase.
Top Tip: ECLAIR DE BEAUFEU (18)
Watch out for: CHAMPAGNE GOLD (9)
Jackform
Gelding
I couldn't find anything to interest me today at Chepstow or Carlisle and even tried Downpatrick, which was no better for me (may have to go and talk to the wife now and already had a whinge to her about the census -cheeky b*ggers!)
Downpatrick (going forecast Yielding with some Yeilding to Soft) These were the best I checked.
2.10 Market expected 10.05 no's 3, 5, 7 10 indicating a win restricted to these..
Johngus 6/4 (danger Stranger Danger 9/4)
3.17 Market expected 10.20 no's 1, 2, 6, 8, 11 indicating a win restricted to these.
Amor Verdadero 2/1 (danger Lilys Gem 7/1)
Downpatrick (going forecast Yielding with some Yeilding to Soft) These were the best I checked.
2.10 Market expected 10.05 no's 3, 5, 7 10 indicating a win restricted to these..
Johngus 6/4 (danger Stranger Danger 9/4)
3.17 Market expected 10.20 no's 1, 2, 6, 8, 11 indicating a win restricted to these.
Amor Verdadero 2/1 (danger Lilys Gem 7/1)
Last edited:
hedgehog
Dam
Hello
Jackform , I swerved the 3.17 the form of amor was terrible, 1 for 18 and nothing to redeem it. Something had to be favourite but if amor is favourite how rubbish do the rest have to be!
Maybe I can learn from that, if the favourite is rubbish then so is the whole race
Good luck and stay well
Jackform , I swerved the 3.17 the form of amor was terrible, 1 for 18 and nothing to redeem it. Something had to be favourite but if amor is favourite how rubbish do the rest have to be!Maybe I can learn from that, if the favourite is rubbish then so is the whole race
Good luck and stay well
Jackform
Gelding
It's easy this game as long as you stick to races restricted to fancied runners 
(Just wanted to post something as i am on forced labour in the garden at present)
Beverley (going forecast GF with some G watered)
1.10 Empress Sheba (danger Rhinoplasty)
2.10 Dapper Man
3.15 Blu Boy
3.50 Puckle
4.25 Delph Crescent
(Just wanted to post something as i am on forced labour in the garden at present)Beverley (going forecast GF with some G watered)
1.10 Empress Sheba (danger Rhinoplasty)
2.10 Dapper Man
3.15 Blu Boy
3.50 Puckle
4.25 Delph Crescent
Jackform
Gelding
As Billy No-mates if I were to update VDW with the market expected and last three outings it would look something like this:
Ayr (going forecast GS with some G watered showers) market odds from 11.00.
1.15 The Caretaker 26 (7/1 mkt - 4/1 2nd), Alqamar 21 (1/1 - 1/1 won)
1.45 Old Jewry 54 (9/2), Silken Moonlight 48 (7/1), Getthepot 30 (15/4 - 7/2 won)
2.20 Bootlegger 48 (9/4), Banafa Blue 38 (11/2 -5/1 2nd), Exit To Where 24 (9/2 -10/3 won)
2.55 Sidi Ismael 48 (11/2), The Ogle Gogle Man 33 (9/4 - 9/2 3rd), Aptly Put 30 (8/1)
3.30 Miss Tara Moss 47 (16/5 - 2/1 3rd), Charm Offensive 37 (5/2 -9/4 2nd), Could Be Trouble 30 (10/3 - 4/1 won)
4.05 Well Above Par 44 (6/1), First Account 40 (5/1), Mannochmore 36 (7/4)
4.40 Andante 30 (9/2), Ned Tanner 18 (4/1)
5.10 Here Comes The Man 30 (5/4), Barrier Peaks 20 (3/1)
The whole shebang to consider - Zowie!
Ayr (going forecast GS with some G watered showers) market odds from 11.00.
1.15 The Caretaker 26 (7/1 mkt - 4/1 2nd), Alqamar 21 (1/1 - 1/1 won)
1.45 Old Jewry 54 (9/2), Silken Moonlight 48 (7/1), Getthepot 30 (15/4 - 7/2 won)
2.20 Bootlegger 48 (9/4), Banafa Blue 38 (11/2 -5/1 2nd), Exit To Where 24 (9/2 -10/3 won)
2.55 Sidi Ismael 48 (11/2), The Ogle Gogle Man 33 (9/4 - 9/2 3rd), Aptly Put 30 (8/1)
3.30 Miss Tara Moss 47 (16/5 - 2/1 3rd), Charm Offensive 37 (5/2 -9/4 2nd), Could Be Trouble 30 (10/3 - 4/1 won)
4.05 Well Above Par 44 (6/1), First Account 40 (5/1), Mannochmore 36 (7/4)
4.40 Andante 30 (9/2), Ned Tanner 18 (4/1)
5.10 Here Comes The Man 30 (5/4), Barrier Peaks 20 (3/1)
The whole shebang to consider - Zowie!
Last edited:
Jackform
Gelding
Good job I swerved my 'home' track Chester yesterday and of a mind to do the same today, except I might be tempted by some IMO trainers no-brainers there .
Chester (going forecast GS with some S showers) market odds from 09.05.
2.45 Yazaman (11/2 e.w.) iffy draw?
3.15 Japan (7/4) good draw.
3.45 Sarvan (11/2) has to overcome draw? Crimewave (16/1) draw could be better. stake 1 point on each.
.Chester (going forecast GS with some S showers) market odds from 09.05.
2.45 Yazaman (11/2 e.w.) iffy draw?
3.15 Japan (7/4) good draw.
3.45 Sarvan (11/2) has to overcome draw? Crimewave (16/1) draw could be better. stake 1 point on each.
Jackform
Gelding
My daughter-in-law requested some TV tips to consider so as historically 76% of winners have come from the top 3 in the market I sent her this:
I have just checked the top three in the market from odds between 09.20-09.30 in the ITV4 races and rated them on past three form outings, hopefully this will be as good as any approach today
.
Ascot (going forecast S rain)
1.55 Lights On 49, Dreamloper 35, Thank You Next 7
2.30 Without A Fight 42, Albaflora 35, Deja 10
3.40 Sunset Breeze 35, Jumaira bay 33, Aquitted 21 (my own fancies Motakhayer 21, Symbolize 21, History Writer 0)
4.15 Aced It 53, Group One Power 33, Louganni 20
Lingfield (going forecast S rain)
2.15 Nash Nasha 57, Ocean Road 46, Technique 24
2.50 Adayar 48, Scope 41, Kyprios 40
3.25 Double Or Bubble 60, Bounce The Blues 30, Isabella 10
4.00 Turn On The Charm 25, Asad 21, Eton College 20
I have just checked the top three in the market from odds between 09.20-09.30 in the ITV4 races and rated them on past three form outings, hopefully this will be as good as any approach today
Ascot (going forecast S rain)
1.55 Lights On 49, Dreamloper 35, Thank You Next 7
2.30 Without A Fight 42, Albaflora 35, Deja 10
3.40 Sunset Breeze 35, Jumaira bay 33, Aquitted 21 (my own fancies Motakhayer 21, Symbolize 21, History Writer 0)
4.15 Aced It 53, Group One Power 33, Louganni 20
Lingfield (going forecast S rain)
2.15 Nash Nasha 57, Ocean Road 46, Technique 24
2.50 Adayar 48, Scope 41, Kyprios 40
3.25 Double Or Bubble 60, Bounce The Blues 30, Isabella 10
4.00 Turn On The Charm 25, Asad 21, Eton College 20
Last edited:
Jackform
Gelding
I am considering returning to the Morton Coles correspondence to the Sprting Chron forum in the late 70's for inspiration (I do have the original copies and it was said at the time that he was a better bet than Van der Wheil for punters). Let's start with this as a taster and the endorsement by Ken Hussey, the Split Second, is a very positive attribute IMO).
The whole essence of the matter is value for money and by backing horses at higher odds than they are entitled to be on the SF.
Ignore all races where the majority of runners are having their first outing, unless there are outstanding Speed Figures for one or more of the remaining horses. In practical terms this means do not bet until after the Guineas meeting on the flat and until after October over the jumps.
Avoid all races where the Speed Figures of several runners are within a few points of each other. This is to reduce as far as possible the elements of chance, bad luck in running and so forth, and allows the backer to concentrate on those races where the relative merit of the horses predominates over chance or luck.
Concentrate on races where the probable starting prices, as indicated in the Racing Post, show there is likely to be a false favourite, false that is, in terms of the SF.
Having completed your table of SF in a race pay attention to: -
Take notice of the draw in races of up to a mile on those courses renowned for favouring one side of the track or the other – Chester, Warwick, Epsom are good examples.
Look for sudden changes in the going, which might not suit some of the runners.
Betting – wait for the betting show and take prices if they are at or above your estimated value odds. Bet to the Field Money Table backing up to 3 horses in a race, but never more.
SPEED FIGURES AND SENSIBLE BETTING
The principles of using Speed Figures by Morton Coles
And advised for consideration by Ken Hussey, Split Second
THE ONLY THING THAT REALLY MATTERS IS THE ODDS
The principles of using Speed Figures by Morton Coles
And advised for consideration by Ken Hussey, Split Second
THE ONLY THING THAT REALLY MATTERS IS THE ODDS
The whole essence of the matter is value for money and by backing horses at higher odds than they are entitled to be on the SF.
Ignore all races where the majority of runners are having their first outing, unless there are outstanding Speed Figures for one or more of the remaining horses. In practical terms this means do not bet until after the Guineas meeting on the flat and until after October over the jumps.
Avoid all races where the Speed Figures of several runners are within a few points of each other. This is to reduce as far as possible the elements of chance, bad luck in running and so forth, and allows the backer to concentrate on those races where the relative merit of the horses predominates over chance or luck.
Concentrate on races where the probable starting prices, as indicated in the Racing Post, show there is likely to be a false favourite, false that is, in terms of the SF.
Having completed your table of SF in a race pay attention to: -
- Distance of the race and distances at which the participants SF were obtained.
- Where the most recent SF is the highest, or at least a high one.
- Always give preference to a horse whose SF was returned over the distance, or even better at a furlong or so further, even if it’s SF is not top-rated, and especially the most recent one.
- Study race comments and remember that the SF of a winning horse could possibly have been increased if ridden out.
- Place extra emphasis on a high SF obtained very recently, say within 7 days.
- Read very carefully the comments on the most recent race - hampered, started slowly, ran wide, finished well etc.
- From last season’s form book check every runner’s top SF and the distance at which it was obtained that year.
Take notice of the draw in races of up to a mile on those courses renowned for favouring one side of the track or the other – Chester, Warwick, Epsom are good examples.
Look for sudden changes in the going, which might not suit some of the runners.
Betting – wait for the betting show and take prices if they are at or above your estimated value odds. Bet to the Field Money Table backing up to 3 horses in a race, but never more.
.