hedgehog, I am a pen-and-paper chart man (it's an age thing as I have been following UK racing for 70 years this year, in fact on my birthday next week I will become too old to be accepted as a Chelsea Pensioner - and that's old!
).
Enough of that, I charted the Newbury 2.25 on another thread continuing with the theme of following trainers where Nicholls, Henderson, King and Tizzard from my seasonal trainers merit list have runners. The early market put me off as with 7 runners each-way is not attractive and the early market fav is too short to be of interest. However, it did bring to mind the advice of Tim Drakeford, who I have respect for:
Quote,"We have said that systematic betting is based on a scientific premise: that the past forecasts the future. It is also based on the scientific premise that certain principles or laws underlie the apparent chaos of the universe. So, what are the underlying principles at work on the racecourse? You may have heard the old saw that fast horses win races. This is a tautology, because by definition, of course, the fastest horse in the race on the day always wins. The trick is to find the one which will be fastest on the day before the race is run! To me, this trick has three aspects. First, the horse must have the
ability to win the race. Second, the horse must be able to show its
form - that is, to live up to its innate ability. Thirdly, and absolutely vitally, the animal must be
fancied by the people connected with it. If they are definitely not trying, then the horse will not win, and if they are not trying very hard it is less likely to win than might otherwise seem the case. These are the questions, then, that the punter must answer before choosing a runner on which he might bet.
Does the horse have sufficient ability to win a race of this type?
Are the circumstances right for the ability to be shown on this occasion?
Do connections expect the horse to win or go close?
If the answers to these three questions is an unequivocal "yes", then the punter has found the right sort of horse on which to invest his money. Whether he should actually do so or not depends on the final imponderable,
value."
(I will leave you to digest those thoughts and hope to hear from you again)