Jack's blog attempt

[Jackform]

Cheltenham - day 3. (Going forecast s with some GS). This approach has to do better than yesterday, surely?

1.30 Faugheen, Itchy Feet (ATR 2, 3)
2.10 Kilbricken Storm (ATR 4,1)
2.50 Min, Frodon (ATR 1,5)
3.30 Paisley Park, Summerville Boy (ATR 8,9)
4.10 Simply The Betts, Springtown Lake (22, 6)
4.50 Concertista (ATR 1, 4)
5.30 Kilfilum Cross (ATR 2, 18)

 

[Jackform]

Cheltenham - day 4 (going forecast Chs GS with some S, Hdl S with some GS)

1.30 Goshen, Solo, Sir Psycho
2.10 Ciel De Neige, Oakley
2.50 Thyme Hill, Janidil, Latest Exhibition
3.30 Santini, Clan Des Obeaux, Kemboy
4.10 Shantou Flyer, Hazell Hill
4.50 Greaneteen
5.30 Column Of Fire, Ecco, Front View

 

[Jackform]

Gold Cup Extra I have been working on compiling a form rating odds approach and could be almost there with this example . (a bookie-buster if ever I saw one )

Cheltenham (going forecast GS with some S) RP Spotlight selects Al Boum Photo ( 3 pundits agree 10 oppose)
3.30 Market expected 10.55* no's 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*. 365 = 5/1 fair odds (3/1 mkt) Al Boum Photo 4 tips (C&D). LTO 72? wght -2*, cls gp 3? won +6L*, D1*, G1*
2. 147 = 18/1 (22/1)
3. 130 = 20/1 (25/1)
4*. 283 = 7/1 (15/2) Clan Des Obeaux 3 tips. LTO78? wght =*, cls 1*, won +21L*, D2*, G2*
5*. 250 = 8/1 (11/2)
6. 45 = 1000/1 (100/1
7*. 267 = 15/2 (10/1)
8*. 334 = 11/2 (11/1) Lostintranslation (C&D). LTO 78? wght =*, PU?, D?, G?
9. 101 = 33/1 (22/1)
10 100 = 33/1 (14/1)
11.. 112 = 25/1 (80/1)
12*. 256 = 8/1 (6/10

Comment: Nothing too unexpected except Lostintranslation comes out well overall. Santini and Kemboy are a little behind?

ATR form verdict in comparison:
Al Boum Photo arrives having had the same preparation, winning at Thurles on New Year's Day, as he attempts to become the first horse since Best Mate in 2003 to win back-to-back Gold Cups. He won with a fair amount of authority 12 months ago, but this appears to be a deeper renewal and his jumping will need to be spot on for him to make it two on the bounce. Last year's RSA Chase has proven to be a brilliant piece of form with SANTINI (second) and Delta Work (third) both confirming themselves to be strong contenders. The vote goes to Nicky Henderson's eight-year-old, who looks to have been trained with this race in mind since his novice hurdle days and his Cotswold Chase success over Bristol De Mai, who finished third in this last year, was a significant step forward from his return at Sandown. The application of cheekpieces are likely to benefit him in the early part of the race, and the extra distance will only play to his strengths. Delta Work arrives following a brace of Grade 1 victories at Leopardstown, finishing ahead of Kemboy and Presenting Percy on both occasions, and he rates a key player. Lostintranslation disappointed in the King George behind Clan Des Obeaux but had come out on top in the Betfair Chase prior and a repeat of that form would put him right in the mix.
Top Tip: SANTINI (12)
Watch out for: DELTA WORK (5)

 

[Jackform]

Here is a difficult race to apply my 'fair form odds ratings' to and just part of the ongoing trial .

Kempton (going forecast GS with some S - showers) RP Spotlight selects McFabulous ( 5 pundits agree 6 oppose)
2.05 Market expected 10.45* no's 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*. 229 = 14/1 fair odds (11/1 mkt)
2*. 339 = 8/1* (14/1) Sevarano 2 tips (D)
3*. 333 = 17/2 (2/1) McFabulous 6 tips (D). P Nicholls 29/H Cobden
4*. 247 = 12/1 (12/1)
5*. 270 = 11/1 (10/1) Hurricane Harvey 2 tips (D2). F O'Brien 22/JBowen
6. 62 = 1000/1 (20/1)
7. 220 = 15/1* (18/1)
8*. 279 = 10/1 (9/1) Eden Du Houx. D Pipe 13/T Scudamore
9*. 248 = 12/1* (16/1) (Stimulating)
10. 100 = 60/1 (18/1)
11. 209 = 16/1* (20/1)
12*. 208 = 16/1 (16/1)
13. 65 = 35/1 (18/1)
14. 126 = 18/1 (18/1)
15. 127 = 18/1* (28/1)
16. 54 = 50/1 (18/1)
17. 65 = 35/1 (33/1)
18. 72 = 200/1 (38/1)

Comment: Fair odds starred* are forecast as value and the only two in the early market expected range are Severano 14/1 and Stimulating 16/1. McFabulous is too short opposite the risk IMO.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
MCFABULOUS is a Grade 2 bumper winner and could have a fantastic chance in this off a mark of 132 having opened his hurdles account at Market Rasen last month, beating the reopposing Hometown Boy by the best part of four lengths. Nicky Henderson has a strong hand with Ascot winner Falco Blitz, Igor and Keen On, while Sevarano is interesting in a first-time visor and has run with credit in some top novice events this season. Fergal O'Brien's pair of Hurricane Harvey and Thegallantway are respected, with Eden Du Houx also noted.

Top Tip: MCFABULOUS (3)
Watch out for: SEVARANO (2)

 

[Jackform]

The domestic supervisor is in a very feisty mood, combative in the extreme, which I put down to lockdown (SHE ought to be locked-up). SH£ has challenged me to win the Irish Lottery claiming that with my gambling experience it ought to be a doddle.
I tried to explain the odds in terms that SHE would understand in that I would be more likely in my lifetime to win the Derby backing a blind , three-legged, dead donkey than I am to win the lottery. Not only that but 50% of the pot is taken out by the promoters before the prizes awarded.

However, if I were to be successful I could crow about it forever , not only that SHE would have to crawl to get penny one from me .

I have approached the problem scientifically believing that winners are in the form book because it can't be entirely random as somebody has to program the machine - Yeah! Let's go - these are the form numbers for the 6th June IMO:

1 5 11 13 15 17 /21 25 27 31 35 40 and the bet is any three non-consecutive from the six low numbers with any three non-consecutive from the six high numbers for 16 lines at £2 = £32 staked.

Warning - I could be completely off my rocker now that it is reported I am senile (and you would be as barmy as me to follow this).

 

[Jackform]

These are MY in form numbers for Wednesdays 3 June Irish lottery .
Will you join me in the 'Looby Loo' syndicate? (I'll bet there will be takers if I win )

5 9 21 25 28 30 32 40 44 45 48 49

The bet is any 6 in non-consecutive order from 12 = 7 lines x £2 = £14 staked

 

[Jackform]

5 and 44 came out so just testing the water - here we go looby loo.

 

[Jackform]

Try and stir it up again on here after failing to convince how to win the lottery scientifically . On another matter, I came across this in my online archive heaven knows from how far back or whom the author is, anyway I thought I would explore it a bit for interest. I am a form before class advocate rather than vice versa. Quote:

Class is the proven level of ability

"Class, that intangible thing that almost defies definition, controls almost positively the running of thoroughbreds! Class enables one horse to beat another no matter what the physical odds may be, what the conditions or what the distance. It is hard to define, but everybody discerns it when it is there." Those are the words of the legendary 'Pittsburgh Phil', perhaps the most successful professional gambler the world has ever known.

So class has to be the biggest single factor in the whole thing. A top class horse can make and withstand more challenges for longer than a lower class horse. All horses have a certain level of ability to which they will progress until they have matured (about 5yrs. depending on the distance) and that's it. They should not be able to win against horses of higher class ever! (That is of course if the higher class horses have the right conditions as well).

And that is what you have to look for and find. Especially the horse that runs a good race, in other words up to its rating, and then gets dropped in class for its next run and has all conditions right for it. (In the lower division races, horses make class jumps more easily because they are basically all low class horses."

I considered the class 3 and better today in the hope that there is some inherent ability to work with. Then I rated the fields with 3 filters on a 3-2-1 basis on possible class filters, so a max would be 9.

Windsor (going forecast GF watered)
3.20 Bettys Hope 8, Electric Ladyland 5, Will To Win 4, (Form tips Will To Win 4 - is that the one?)
5.20 Caradoc 6, Severence 4, Hyanna 4 (Form tips Severence 2 - couple of non-runners)

Yarmouth (going forecast GF watering)
2.30 Blackheath 8, Burford Brown 5, Deep Intrighue 4, Lady Of Aran 4 (Form tips Blackeath 8 tips - could be the one )

 

[formtheory]

Nice work Jackform, I feel


Electric Ladyland is the overpriced one in the 3:20 at Windsor.

LTO pushed up along way in class, ran OK before fading. On her penultimate race she best a few of these, and ran a good speed figure in the process. Today she carries less physical weight than she won with and that win was level class wise with anything in today's field.

I'm hoping to make a profit from her win or lose.

Good luck!

 

[mjay]

Jackform maybe if A'P O'Brien was running the Irish lottery we'd have a chance of predicting the numbers

formtheory I too noted Electric Ladyland when she won at Goodwood and agree with your above, but am just going to watch today. It looked a similar class on OR despite it being a class 2 rather than 3. The only thing that ran alarm bells was the t/r 97 horse but he does giove 8lbs to the filly- good luck

 

[formtheory]

ELECTRIC LADYLAND ran a stormer from the front there! Nice win.

 

[mjay]

formtheory well done - I put £2 at 11/1 after our posts earlier!

 

[scar]

formtheory and Jackform Well done with Electric and Blackheath I doubled 50p e/w and got 23.50 much need funds into my depleted bet365 acc

 

[formtheory]

Nice one scar!

 

[formtheory]

I'm annoyed as I just checked my email and have been credited a £25 free bet with Spreadex.

The last time I used them was for a free £25 bet and I used it on Bathsheba Bay which won, I didn't believe I could withdraw the winnings no questions asked.

Wish I'd seen the email as I would have used the £25 on the selection!

Nevermind!

Needs to be used today, so I've used it on Twin Appeal to place in the 8.00 Thirsk at 2/1.

Free £50 would be nice!

 

[Jackform]

That strirred it up a bit - they get eggbound in here after a while you know .

My form preference just got edged out of it by a class runner, but with a yard in form. There is only one class three on the UK mainland and it looks open early so difficult by form, although I have posted Ice Lord and Wentworth Falls on another thread. formtheory any ideas on this race?

Doncaster (going forecast GF watered) RP Spotlight selects Admiralty (1 pundit agrees 10 oppose)
2.00 Market expected 08.55* no's 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 indicating a win restricted to these. I haven't penned a chart but it looks more open to me?

Corinthia Knight 9 MY class rating - A Watson rates 13/H Doyle (2 tips)

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Ice Lord proved that he retains plenty of enthusiasm with his comeback third at Newmarket, although Wentworth Falls (3 tips) was only a head behind him and has since gone close over the minimum trip at Ayr. Triggered (2 MY class) made a promising start for his new stable at Haydock but a chance is taken on the fitness of FLYING PURSUIT. Tim Easterby's charge went through a busy 2019 without managing to get his head in front, but put together a string of good performances in the autumn and has dropped to an attractive mark.
Top Tip: FLYING PURSUIT (11) (1 tip)
Watch out for: ICE LORD (8) (5 tips)

 

[formtheory]

Hi Jackform

The one I find interesting is FLAVIUS TITUS at the price.

His two starts back don't look great but raced in classes 100 ( 18/1) and 230 (33/1)

Today's race represents a drop in class (67)

Carries the same physical weight as LTO with Meg Nicholls 3lb claim.

His two best pieces of 6F form last season would give him strong claims, watching the replay of the LTO he ran well for a long way before fading back. This is something I feel ratings "miss"

His draw today is a concern but I think he will out run his 20/1 odds (Betfair)

Good luck today Jackform!

 

[mjay]

Good luck with this race - I was too conflicted with Wentworth Falls nearly making a case but failing on seasonal figures.

 

[formtheory]

Talking of seasonal figures mjay I think Desert Ace later today looks good from that angle.

 

[Jackform]

Not very enthused about the mainland cards today - Musselburgh small fields, AW has never been my forte and jumps too early.

That being the case I thought why not stick your head up above the parapet and discuss the VDW 'magic key'? . I did note some minor altercation elsewhere recently so it may not be a good idea, but in for a pound as they say .
Anyway it wasn't a magic key it was a strong filter, which I have divided into three grades - A top key, B medium key, C low key (here we go -duck!)

C'mon, how the heck to you make that out? Hold on I will reveal nearly all. It comes from three separate letters by VDW over a period of time to Sports Forum, SCHB; namely 6 June 78, 3 May 79, 13 March 80.

I have indicated the grade on the early market thread today for anyone still interested (tin hat on ).