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Jack's blog attempt

Jackform

Gelding
Is anyone permitted to do VDW nowadays? Just a basic 'elementary mechanical' style effort.

Newcastle (Standard to Slow) RP Spotlight selects Another touch (7 pundits agree 6 oppose) Market odd from 10.50.
3.00 Market expected 10.50* no's 1, 3, 5 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 1/1, possible contender 2/1, not expected longer than 4/1.

Market, class, consistency, RPR, D.Mail Formcast = X column headings.

1*. XXXXX = 5* Another Touch 8 tips (D6) (15/8 mkt)
2. 0XX00 = 2*
3*. X0XXX = 4* Raydance (7/2)
4. 00000 = 0*
5*. XX0XX = 4* Vis Serendipity 6 tips (D5) (15/8)

Comment: Toss up between nos 1 and 5, 1 edges it
:)
.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
VIA SERENDIPITY has been back to something like his best in recent months, winning at Kempton before running with credit in a Listed contest at the same venue when last seen, and he could be the answer here. Three-time course-and-distance winner Home Before Dusk was back in the winners' enclosure at Wolverhampton last time and knows every inch of the Gosforth Park Tapeta course, while hat-trick seeking Another Touch is another name to note.

Top Tip: VIA SERENDIPITY (5)
Watch out for: HOME BEFORE DUSK (2
 
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Ferdy

Colt
I see it this way.
No.NameRating
1​
Another Touch86.00
2​
Home Before Dusk76.00
3​
Raydiance63.00
5​
Via Serendipity50.00
4​
Trevithick24.00
 

Chesham

Sire
Is anyone permitted to do VDW nowadays? Just a basic 'elementary mechanical' style effort.

Newcastle (Standard to Slow) RP Spotlight selects Another touch (7 pundits agree 6 oppose) Market odd from 10.50.
3.00 Market expected 10.50* no's 1, 3, 5 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 1/1, possible contender 2/1, not expected longer than 4/1.

Market, class, consistency, RPR, D.Mail Formcast = X column headings.

1*. XXXXX = 5* Another Touch 8 tips (D6) (15/8 mkt)
2. 0XX00 = 2*
3*. X0XXX = 4* Raydance (7/2)
4. 00000 = 0*
5*. XX0XX = 4* Vis Serendipity 6 tips (D5) (15/8)

Comment: Toss up between nos 1 and 5, 1 edges it
:)
.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
VIA SERENDIPITY has been back to something like his best in recent months, winning at Kempton before running with credit in a Listed contest at the same venue when last seen, and he could be the answer here. Three-time course-and-distance winner Home Before Dusk was back in the winners' enclosure at Wolverhampton last time and knows every inch of the Gosforth Park Tapeta course, while hat-trick seeking Another Touch is another name to note.

Top Tip: VIA SERENDIPITY (5)
Watch out for: HOME BEFORE DUSK (2
I run a 2 VDW threads on the Blog . Not The Silver Lining Connection and the other Two Methods Of Rating

so yes Jackform Jackform of course VDW is welcomed especially if it is Pre Race and not like some of the After Time charlatans that we have come across on VDW Related Forums
 

Jackform

Gelding
After yesterday's VDW success I tried more of the same with the Newcastle 1.55 but found it too tight to call with * for no's 1 - 5 = 5. 4. 4. 2. 4. Unwilling to give up I went with a Fineform assessment.

Newcastle (going forecast standard - rain)
1.55 Market expected 10.20* no's 1, 2, 3, 5 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 1/1, possible contender 2/1, not expected longer than 4/1.

1. 17 = 9/4 Fineform fair odds (10/3 mkt) Dark Regard 2 tips. M Johnston rates 16.
2. 8 = 7/1 (4/1)
3. 16 = 95/40 (9/4) Bendy Spirit 4 tips (D). R Fahey rates 22
4. 3 = 50/1 (9/1)
5. 14 = 3/1 (3/1) Bella Brazil 5 tips (D)

Comment: Bendy Spirit for me owing to the more recent form and I can't fault the ATR form verdict
:)
.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
BENDY SPIRIT romped home by four lengths over 7f at Lingfield last time out and rates the one to beat now turned out swiftly under a penalty. He ran creditably here on his penultimate outing over 6f but seems better suited by this longer trip. Dark Regard has been in fine order at Southwell and Wolverhampton over 6f and should put up plenty of resistance if her stamina holds out. The pick of the remainder may be Irish raider Bella Brazil, who won on her first start for this stable on a trip to Kempton in November.

Top Tip: BENDY SPIRIT (3)
Watch out for: DARK REGARD (1)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Should have known not to call yesterday's tight hcap
:(
. Got another today maybe not so tight but with the money on offer they will all be trying their best
:)
. It's the Lingfield 1.10 where my star* ratings for no's 1-6 are 2, 4, 5, 4, 4, 1 (6 not considered as out of the long hcap). Reeves, 3/1 mkt 10.20) is best tipped up by the pundits and RP Spotlight selection (5 pundits agree 8 oppose). I shall just go with the early market and watch with interest.

Lingfield (going forecast Standard)

4. Reeves 6 tips (D3) 3/1 mkt 10.20), R Cowell/SP Davies (3lb claimer)
5. Mohareb 3 tips (C&DC) 9/4, M Appleby/L Morris (top track jock)

Comment: Personally I prefer the Appleby/Morris combo, but that's just my opinion.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
REEVES made it a hat-trick of all-weather victories when successful over 6f at Wolverhampton last month, and should have no problem with the return to 7f looking to extend his winning run off a 3lb higher mark. He faces some tough opposition here, including recent course-and-distance winner Mohareb, who is dangerous under a 5lb penalty. Librisa Breeze is a Group 1 winner and will enjoy the drop in trip, while Fox Power and Power Link are others to note.

Top Tip: REEVES (4)
Watch out for: MOHAREB (5)
 

Ferdy

Colt
I'm on Reeves but only just and it is drifting on Betfair.

4​
Reeves93.00
5​
Mohareb92.00
3​
Power Link (USA)84.00
2​
Fox Power (IRE)66.00
1​
Librisa Breeze27.00
6​
Baby Steps27.00
 

Jackform

Gelding
Checking the early market Warwick it looks difficult for punters on form IMO, in which case I have to rely on yards in form over the past couple of weeks. There could be some nuggets in there
:)
.

Warwick (going forecast S)

12.40 Made For You 25, Elton Des Mottes 18
1.50 Highest Sun 24, Ardlethen 18
2.25 Shan Blue 28, Keen On 25, Harry Senior 24
3.00 Petite Power 20, Darlac 17
3.35 Diomede 18,Igor 15, White Moon 14
4.00 George Valentine 20, The Rosary Flyer 18, Diamond River 15
 

Jackform

Gelding
With the going as it is this race on the AW looks about as good as any today. Just a basic Fineform rating priced up.

Wolverhampton (going forecast standard) RP Spotlight selects Monjeni (14 pundits oppose)
4.10 Market expected 09.30* no's 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, possible contender 9/2, not expected longer than 10/1.

4. 10 = 11/2 Fineform fair odds. Cotton Club (20/1) 1 tip (C&DD2)
5*. 15 = 10/3 (9/2). Dance To Paris 3 tips (C)
9*. 12 = 9/2 (5/2). Purdey's Gift 6 tips (C)

Comment: Have to dutch Dance to Paris and Purdey's Gift.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Fit from hurdling and a previous winner over a similar marathon trip on the level, Praeceps (2 tips. Fineform 5 = 12/1 fair, 15/2 mkt)is expected to go well on his return to the Flat, but narrow preference is for DANCE TO PARIS. Lucy Wadham's charge saw the race out well when scoring over 1m6f here last time so shouldn't mind this extra yardage, and a 4lb rise doesn't look enough to halt her if her stamina does hold out. Purdey's Gift, a 1m4f winner here in October, has shaped as though further would suit and is very interesting now stepped up in trip.

Top Tip: DANCE TO PARIS (5)
Watch out for: PRAECEPS (3)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Definitely a 'not expected' yesterday - by anybody
:(
.

Ludlow (going forecast S -rain?) RP Spotlight selects Ziggy Rose (10 pundits oppose)
2.55 Market expected 09.25* nos 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, possible contender 6/1, not expected longerthan 12/1.

1*. 13 = 13/2 Fineform fair odds (7/2 mkt) Legends Gold. 3 tips (C), off track 61?
5*. 14 = 6/1 (11/1) Coillte Eile (D). R Newland rates 19.
11. 12 = 7/1 (28/1) Ask Catkin. 1 tip, Off track 211?

Comment: Does look open on paper IMO, what with it being mares and all? If I were to follow the early market I would go Subway Surf danger Winter Getaway. Following the Clive Holt system just Legends Gold on the nose
:)
.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
SUBWAY SURF shaped on her most recent outing at the course as though the step up to 3m would aid her cause and an opening mark of 115 appears workable if translating her bumper form to this sphere. Who's The Boss ran a lot better when fifth at Wincanton last month and represents a stable that do well with their mares, while others to note include Legends Gold, who has the assistance of Ben Jones' 5lb claim, and Winter Getaway (2 tips. Fine form 10 = 9/1, 11/2 mkt. P Hobbs rates 22/R Johnson).

Top Tip: SUBWAY SURF (6) (4 tips (BF2) Fineform 9 = 11/1, 4/1 mkt)
Watch out for: WHO'S THE BOSS (7) (Fineform 5 = 25/1, 9/1 mkt)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Did you know that the first system VDW provided was to follow the shortest forecast odds of the day as long its recent form was that of a 'key' race.

Market Rasen (going forecast S with some GS - showers)

12.40 Fix Sun (4/7 mkt)
 

Chesham

Sire
Did you know that the first system VDW provided was to follow the shortest forecast odds of the day as long its recent form was that of a 'key' race.

Market Rasen (going forecast S with some GS - showers)

12.40 Fix Sun (4/7 mkt)
One of my systems that uses Key Race Data has this one flagged up today

0D139A3A-D69E-46CA-8091-C94013E7C5CA.jpeg2746E15C-9B43-4D41-B3E0-3851382700F5.jpeg
 

Jackform

Gelding
With regard to VDW assessments I find the principles involved OK but don't often compile them as the outcome is *star ratings to reduce the field. My interest is always in ratings that can be converted to odds. The Mus 3.00 I would see as a key race.

Musselburgh (going forecast GS with some G) RP Spotlight selects The Mouse Doctor (3 pundits agree 9 oppose)
3.00 Market expected 11.50* no's 3, 5, 7, 9 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, possible contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1.
Market, class, consistency, RPR, D.Mail Formcast = column headings

1. 00XXX = 3*
2. 00XXX = 3*
3. XX0XX = 4* Kajaki 4 tips (D) (10/3 mkt)
4. 0X0XX = 3*
5. X0XXX = 4* Seaborough 2 tips (9/2)
6. 000X0 = 1*
7. X00XX = 3*
9. XX0XX = 4* Castletown 1 tip (BF) (7/1)

Comment: The *star ratings look tight mainly because of RPR and Formcast, which need to be subject to further consideration.

On the other hand these are my own ratings converted to odds (and have no merit other than that)

1. 8 = 9/2 my fair odds (12/1 mkt) Weather Front 2 tips (D2)
2. 5 = 15/2 (17/2)
3. 9 = 4/1 (10/3) Kajaki
4. 4 = 10/1 (40/1)
5. 5 = 15/2 (9/2)
6. 1 = 40/1 (22/1)
7. 7 = 5/1 (13/8) The Mouse Doctor 4 tips
9. 4 = 10/1 (7/1)

Comment: My selection at the odds Kajaki with The Mouse Doctor currently a strong fav too short opposite the risk. Weather Front is quite interesting each-way at the odds.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
WEATHER FRONT looked a top prospect when landing back-to-back novice hurdle victories in the autumn of 2018 and was even talked of as a potential Supreme Novices' Hurdle contender by handler Karen McLintock. He now returns following 427 days off the track and the seven-year-old could prove leniently treated on handicap debut if retaining all of his old ability. Goldencard reverts to hurdles following some fine efforts over fences of late and the course-and-distance winner has to be respected. Kajaki is also noted having picked up a silver medal on his first outing for Nicky Richards last month.
Top Tip: WEATHER FRONT (1)
Watch out for: GOLDENCARD (2)
 

Jackform

Gelding
I am struggling again with the going as it is and lacking confidence on the AW I have left it to the top ten AW trainers in form at Chelmsford to do the business rather than Lingfield. Just a Fibonacci staking progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5 stop-at-a-profit to have an interest, omitting the two at the current market longest odds. If the trainer rating shown for the same trainer is different for individual races it is because they have been alloted an increment for a runners recent form

Chelmsford (going forecast standard) Market odds shown at 10.40.

4.45 Deeds Not words 27 (2/1) - Sagittarius Wind 20, Grandee Daisy 13
5.50 I Love You Baby 19 (14/1 no bet)
5.45 Jujuaira King 15 (10/3)
6.15 Concierge 24 (6/1) - Red Alert 16, Shamshon 12
6.45 Channel Packet 19 (10/1 no bet)
7.15 Glory Of Paris 23 (9/2) - Papa Stour 18

The list compiled for Lingfield (going forecast standard) is:

12.30 Attain 14
1.00 Furzio 25 - Pactolus 19
1.35 Baltic Prince 16 - Silver Duet 15, One To Go 14
2.10 Electric Ladyland 24
2.45 Portugueseprincess 20 - Bank Holiday 15
3.20 Alicia Darcy 14
3.50 Our Man 16
 

Jackform

Gelding
Heavy going, so just a Fineform rating trial to keep my hand in
:)


Ayr (going forecast heavy ) RP Spotlight selects Teddy Tee (4 pundits agree 6 oppose)
2.25 Market expected 10.50* no's 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

1*. 13 = 3/1 Fineform fair odds (11/2 mkt) Teddy Tee 5 tips (C). Has won on similar going.
2*. 10 = 5/1 (5/1)
3*. 5 = 35/1 (11/4)
4. 12 = 7/2 (8/1) Samstown 1 tip (CD). Has won on similar going.
5*. 11 = 9/2 (7/2) Diamond Brig 2 tips. 50% on similar going. B Hughes top track jock up.
6*. 10 = 5/1 (4/1)
7. 0 = ? (66/1)

Comment: 1 point the three for interest
:)
.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
SAMSTOWN seemed to improve for the application of blinkers (worn again) when winning impressively at Kelso three weeks ago and the veteran could be hard to beat off just 6lb higher in the ratings. Teddy Tee was also successful last time and that form suggests that he could prove to be the main threat. Another Emotion, Diamond Brig and Speak Of The Devil also warrant respect in a competitive event.

Top Tip: SAMSTOWN (4)
Watch out for: TEDDY TEE (1)
 

Jackform

Gelding
CHELTENHAM tomorrow and trying not to get carried away with the hype! :). An exciting meeting but it is just high class racing as far as punting is concerned.
It poses difficulties owing to the influx of overseas runners, particularly the Irish contingent. Many competitors with proven ability, some large fields and quite a few non-hcaps to consider. This year the previous poor going may have had a detrimental effect on the training and trial races too.

Is there an approach to consider rather than attempting to consider all the factors involved? I don't know but intend starting out on the first day with a VDW style platform for each race. Basically that is consistent runners from the short end of the market that are supported by at least two respected form ratings, and we shall see! :D. This is a trial at Stratford today:

Stratford (going forecast S with some Heavy chses and showers - so not ideal?).

2.10 Ga Law
2.45 Destined To Shine, Darling Alko
3.55 Tidal Flow
4.30 River Bay, Karakdram
5.05 Risk And Roll, O'Ceallaigh
5.35 Grandads Cottage, Grumpy Charley

N.B. You can of course give further consideration once you have narrowed the field i.e., time off track, weight-change, class, distance, going, distance separated from other runners last time etc.
 

Jackform

Gelding
These are my take on the Van der Wheil method 2 with the ATR form verdict 1 and danger for comparison.

Cheltenham - day 1 (going forecast S - showers)

1.30 Shishkin, Asterion Forlonge (ATR no.s 13, 2)
2.10 Notebook, Maire Banrigh,Espirit Du large (ATR 5, 7) (edit 11.45 - error delete Espirit Du Large and include Cashback instead)
2.50 Who Dares Wins, Vintage Clouds (8,17)
3.30 Darver Star, Cilaos Emery (ATR 7,3)
4.10 Benie Des Deux, Honeysuckle, Rocksana (ATR 1, 5)
4.50 Trainwreck (ATR 8,2)
5.30 Newtide, Springfield Fox, Lord Du Mesnil (ATR 6,2)
 
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Jackform

Gelding
Cheltenham - day 2 and I found it more difficult to assess. Going forecast Soft with Heavy on the cross-country course. ATR form verdict selections shown in brackest for comparison).

1.30 Sporting John, Longhouse Poet (ATR 3, 10)
2.10 Copperhead, Allano (ATR 8,1)
2.50 ? (ATR 21,13)
3.10 Defi Du Seuil, Chacun Pour Soi (ATR 4, 3)
4.10 Tiger Roll, Might Bite (ATR 13, 4)
4.50 Saint D'Oroux (ATR 21, 2)
5.30 ? (ATR 2, 18)
 
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