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Jack's blog attempt

Uttoxeter (going forecast S showers)
3.50 Market expected 09.45* nos 1, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11 indicating an open contest.

Comment: Final Choice looks the most likely on recent form, whilst McNamanaras Band hails form the P Hobbs/R Johnson yard.

De Rasher Counter 4* 1 tip 8/1 mkt(4 my own rating)
Culture De Sivola 3* 14/1 mkt (12)
Final Choice 3* 3 tips 9/2 mkt (12)
McNamaras Band 4* 6 tips 9/1 (18)
Sirobbie 3* 1 tip 5/1 mkt (8)
 
Uttoxeter (going forecast S showers) 3.15 the VDW next best race of the day :).

Westend Story 5* 4 tips 5/1 mkt 11.25 (24 my own rating) P Hoobs/R Johnson
Diablo De Rochet 5* 8 tips 7/2 mkt (243 my rating -that's 243!) N Henderson/J McGrath

Comments: Has to be Diablo.

ATR formverdict in comparison:
DIABLO DE ROUHET has improved considerably since joining Nicky Henderson, winning at Perth by a wide margin before a solid effort over 3m at Bangor, and the slight drop in distance on this occasion appears to be in his favour. Carrick Roads won his latest hurdles start at Bangor in April and appeals as making up into a better chaser, while Westend Story's sole chase effort at Exeter last season is a particularly strong piece of form having finished behind two subsequent Cheltenham Festival winners.
Top Tip: DIABLO DE ROUHET (2)
Watch out for: CARRICK ROADS (7)
 
When I opened this chat blog I was looking for ways to improve the way I work and go forward. Writing about that and reading some of the other threads has provided some clarification for me and an idea to work on with regard to summarizing multiple variables.
The following is info provided by another member:
When there are a lot of factors interpret the more factors involved the harder it is to interpret them as the brain can only cope with a certain amount of information. We need to find a way to combine this information in order to simplify our understanding of the information e.g. If you have 6 ratings for a horse and it’s a twelve horse race, then there are 2,556 possible combinations you need to consider. In a 15 horse field that goes up to 4,005 combinations. Very rapidly it becomes impossible for our brain to actually compare the data we are providing it.
By using our brains in a particular manner to summarize the information, combined with experience and instinct, it should be possible to pinpoint profitable bets with accuracy.
 
Jackform Jackform The negative i feel about attempting to summarize the many variables via a combined rating is the difficulty of obtaining the correct weighting for each. I prefer to view my likes and dislikes as standalone aspects and then do it the hard way via as you say using the mind to seek the balance. Experience aside i find the best aide to this is allowing myself plenty of time.
 
mick mick , I'm working on the problem :D (many moons ago I worked for ICI and the mantra was 'if you can identify the problem it should be possible to find a solution).

I rated the Catt 1.40 by two methods and summarized them and applied my solution.

Catterick (going forecast S with some Hvy showers looks difficult for punters on paper)
1.40 Market expected 10.40* nos 1, 4, 5, 11, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.

Comment.
Method 1. Jump The Gun 1 tip (D) 5/2 mkt - best summary. Felicia Blue 3 tips 11/2 mkt - next best
Method 2. Jump The Gun - best. Leoch 6 tips 15/8 mkt - next best. Felicia Blue - 3rd best.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Felicia Blue looked useful when second at Ripon on debut and forms part of a two-pronged Richard Fahey assault alongside the 40,000-pound Havana Gold newcomer Cuban Affair. David O'Meara is another handler with a strong hand, saddling Seas Of Elzaam, who should appreciate the return to 6f, and Rebel Soldier Boy, who has gone close on both outings and could improve for a step up in trip now. However, preference is for LEOCH, who shaped with real promise on soft ground to pick up a silver medal behind Glasvegas at Hamilton last month and could relish conditions again.
Top Tip: LEOCH (4)
Watch out for: REBEL SOLDIER BOY (5)
 
hedgehog hedgehog, thank you for the support, although one successful day could be a fluke. I have just tried a practise race that looks difficult on paper for punters today. A class 5 maiden hurdle with a dearth of recent form, forecast as a 'restricted' contest where six of the twelve runners have to be considered and summarized.

Sedgefield (going forecast S) data collected from Pattern Form
3.35 Market expected 10.35* nos 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.

2. 10/1 mkt
3. 5/2 mkt Breathable, = best summary
6. 5/1 mkt Kingrullah, next best summary
8. 10/1 mkt
10. 9/2 mkt (Yes No Maybe So, D McCain/B Hughes)
12. 11/4 mkt Ilaya,= best summary

Comment: The market plays no part in the summary except for indicating a 'restricted' race to assess.
(P.S. A summary of the layers current market in order of merit would be 3, 12, =6 & =10, 8, 2).
ATR form verdict in comparison.
YES NO MAYBE SO (5th of the six by summary) won his second (bumper) outing at Musselburgh in December and the son of Stowaway makes a fair amount of appeal on his hurdling bow in what appears a winnable contest on paper. Breathable won twice on the Flat in the summer and represents a stable who enjoyed a double at Carlisle on Thursday, while point-to-point winner Blaster Yeats (remote 6th by summary) completes the shortlist.
Top Tip: YES NO MAYBE SO (10)
Watch out for: BREATHABLE (3)
 
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mick mick, - 'The negative I feel about attempting to summarize the many variables via a combined rating is the difficulty of obtaining the correct weighting for each'. I didn't mean to infer that my 'summary' was a combined rating as it is not, although it is a systematic approach to consider as many variable factors as you wish to include, as it is an abridgement of their substance, and quickly too. In fact it is 'out-of-thebox' thinking and really has nothing to do with racing at all, but it seem to fit :handgestures-thumbup:.
 
Jackform Jackform no worries as i was not referring to what you intended, but rather commenting in general about the problem of balancing all of the info we work with. :)
 
mick mick. here is one that I have completed since my last post and surely nobody could find this race easy?

Sedgefield 5.15 - a bumper and an open contest now with two non-runners since i checked this morning. In this case I considered the infineform variables to summarize.

1. 5/2 mkt College Oak - joint best summary and probably has the edge
3. 9/1 mkt - Cyrus Keep - 4th best summary some way behind
4. 7/1 mkt Ferry Al - 3rd best summary
5. 11/4 mkt High Renown - next best
9. 6/1 mkt Lex Eleven - joint best summary

Comment: Looks like the layers may have some idea.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
COLLEGE OAK bumped into an impressive winner when second on debut in a Fontwell bumper in the spring and with that rival franking the form on his next appearance (scoring at Plumpton), Jamie Snowden's charge could be the one to side with here. It is interesting that Richard Johnson is booked aboard newcomer High Renown for a trainer that does well in this sphere, while Crack Du Ninian changed hands for 42,000 pounds following his point-to-point victory in April and is worth a market check ahead of his NH bow.
Top Tip: COLLEGE OAK (1)
Watch out for: HIGH RENOWN (5)
 
Rather late with this but it is just a cross-reference with the selections in the tips thread. I often make fuller assessments if I want to get some idea independently of what the odds should be. I generally use a straightforward Clive Holt Fineform master formula assessment and convert the ratings to fair odds.

Exeter (going forecast G) 4.40

3. 6 = 10/1 Fineform fair odds, First Figaro
8. 12 = 4/1 Triple Chief
9. 15 = 11/4 Brown Bear
10. 14 = 3/1 Write It Down

Comment; Brown Bear just edges Write It Down according to the Fineform formula, but it's close.
 
Ayr (going forecast S) RP Spotlight selection Ask Cory (2 pundits agree 10 oppose). Fineform master formula rating data from RP online.
2.45 Market expected 9.45* nos 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, possible contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.

1*. 11 = 6/1 fair odds (10/3 mkt) Orioninverness 4 tips
2*. 15 = 7/2 (3/1) No No Mac 2 tips (CD2)
3*. 16 = 3/1 (4/1) Nortonthorpelegend 1 tip (C&DBF)
4*. 13 = 9/2 (4/1) Damiens Dilemma 3 tips (D)
5*. 6 = 18/1 (9/2) Ask Cory 3 tips
6. 4 = 50/1 (22/1)
7. 6 = 18/1 (16/1)
8. 7 = 13/1 (11/1)
9. 0 = ? (11/1)

Comment: Always wise to be cautious when the preamble indicates an open contest, where the 'possible contenders' and longer may come into contention. Dutch 2, 3, 4?

ATR form verdict in comparison.
DAMIENS DILEMMA had been threatening to land the spoils for quite some time prior to scoring at Kelso three weeks ago and could follow up despite a 5lb rise. The 11-year-old is running better than ever despite his advancing years and appeals marginally more than Orioninverness, who performed well to finish second at Hexham recently after a break. Nortonthorpelegend wasn't given a hard time when struggling at Kelso last time and he could easily bounce back.

Top Tip: DAMIENS DILEMMA (4)
Watch out for: ORIONINVERNESS (1)

As a further comparison a 'weird' mathematical summary from PatternForm data.

1. Orioninverness 72
2. No No Mac 1 = best
3. Nortonthorpelegend 24 = next best
4. Damiens Dilemma 192
5. Ask Cory 625
 
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No Fineform race available today, so have to resort to a PatternForm 'magic' summary!
8-)


Chepstow (going forecast GS/S) RP Spotlight selects Prime Venture (6 pundits agree 6 oppose)
3.25 Market expected 09.45* nos 2, 3, 5, 8 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, possible contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1.

2*. Copperhead 192 summary, (9/2 mkt) D? G*
3*. Finawn Bawn 48, 2 tips (9/2) D? G*
5*. Prime Venture 1 = best, 7 tips (9/4) D* G*
8*. Truckers Lodge 36 = next best, 4 tips (13/8) D* G*

Comment: All the indicators on paper point to Prime Venture and/or Truckers Lodge, currently showing as a strong fav, the others having been off track a long time.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Copperhead ended his 2018/19 campaign with successive hurdle wins at Exeter and Sandown and may well continue his progression now upped in distance on his chasing bow. Truckers Lodge has the benefit of having had a couple of runs over fences and could take a step forward from his comeback fourth, but preference instead is for FINAWN BAWN. Third in a Grade 2 at Warwick over hurdles, he followed that up with a game success at Huntingdon and is likely to jump better over obstacles that warrant greater respect.

Top Tip: FINAWN BAWN (3)
Watch out for: TRUCKERS LODGE (8)
 
Where are we with this? Been off for a bit with my systems starting to shut down. It's an age thing nothing to do with racing :D. Still my brain is working OK at present - I think. I do enjoy compiling my own race assessment rather than just follow other opinion, much as I do on the tips thread. I have found that using Clive Holt's master formula as a basis works very well. This is my chart (I am a pen-and-paper man) for the long race at Plumpton where they have got to get the distance on soft ground. Data from the RP online.

Plumpton (going forecast S) RP Spotlight selection The Caller (11 pundits oppose)
2.40 Market expected 10.30* nos 1, 3, 5, 8, 9, 11 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 5/2, possible contender 5/1, not expected longer than 10/1.

3*. 18 = 9/2 Fineform fair odds (4/1 mkt) Hard To Forget 1 tip (C)
5*. 16 = 5/1 (10/3) Christmas In April 2 tips. C Tizzard rates 17/H Cobden
11*. 13 = 7/1 (9/1) Uallrightharry (C)

Comment: Dutch Hard To Forget and Christmas In April looks reasonable

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Hard To Forget has an obvious chance having won impressively twice in recent months but he is now on a career-high mark and this is his toughest test to date. With that in mind, the preference is for THE CALLER, who failed to fire last time out at Fontwell but his previous victory in the Durham National gives him a big chance today. Others to note are Billy Bronco (9 = 11/1 Fineform fair, 14/1 mkt, 1 tip. E Williams rates 11) and Christmas In April.

Top Tip: THE CALLER (6) (12 = 15/2 Fineform fair odds (14/1 mkt) 1 tip (C), S Bowen up).
Watch out for: HARD TO FORGET (3)
 
Looking at the results today brings me round to staking on short odds selections such as the usual case on the 'early market possibles' thread. this a system that often produces periods of level stakes profits. Is it best to stay with level stakes and just increase the stake point used or employ an alternative?
The J Ryder staking plan was all the rage in the early 60's. He is said to have run Westminster Relay probably a pirate operation then but the defunct Track Betting Agency used to run some of his systems. Just for interest this is the staking plan as an alternative to level stakes:

1) Starting and minimum stake 2 points.
2) After a loser in crease by 1 point.
3) After a winner at odds-on remain with the same stake.
4) After a winner at 1-1 to 11-8 reduce by 1 point.
5) After a winner at 6-4 or longer reduce by 2 points.

I have other profit increasing staking plans, one of which is that advised by Van der Wheil in his early correspondence. I compared it with a raft of other plans in the late 80's and it came out best of them all.
 
This is the best I could find for my Fineform based chart and does not make for confidence. The reason being that it depends on good form from the two past results for 50% of a good individual rating, but hat's the way it is :cry:.

Taunton (going forecast S with some GS showers) RP Spotlight selects Diamond Gait (1 pundit agrees 11 oppose)
3.00 Market expected 09.50* nos 2, 4, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 5/2, possible contender 5/1, not expected longer than 10/1.

2*. 10 = 11/2 Fineform fair odds (7/2 mkt) Colonel Custard 2 tips.
5*. 12 = 4/1 (17/2) Flashing Glance 3 tips. (Tom Lacey is on my B team list of trainers and rates 18 today
:)
)
6*. 9 = 13/2 (9/2) Prudhomme 2 tips (BF)
6*. 9 = 13/2 (15/2) Storm Home 1 tip (C). C Tizzard rates 7/H Cobden

Comment: Checking my chart there is an absence of D winners. I would probably dutch nos 2 and 5 the top two rated at a push
:P
.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
COLONEL CUSTARD shaped nicely for a long way over 2m5f at Kempton on Boxing Day and could be worth chancing off a 2lb lower mark here with cheekpieces now applied. Flashing Glance is tried in a tongue-tie following some useful recent efforts, while Diamond Gait steps up in trip off a 4lb higher figure having finished third in a competitive Huntingdon heat last month. Earth Moor (5 = 22/1 Fineform, 13/2 mkt, (D). P Hobbs rates 13/R Johnson) looked a handy operator back in the autumn of 2018 and is also worth noting on his comeback off what could prove a lenient opening rating.

Top Tip: COLONEL CUSTARD (2)
Watch out for: DIAMOND GAIT (4) (5 = 22/1 Fineform fair odds, 9/2 mkt. K Bailey a B team trainer rates 14 today)
 
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