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View attachment 101204
2 years in a row saw 7 draws in a row!!! thats a big hit one year and a big hit the following
That is a pretty big hit. I placed there last 700 games results into my bet tracker so I could run some theories, I don't have odds for the games and every assumption I have made so far has been far off the mark. In any case I have to feed the odds in so I started with putting every games lay odds at 7, this is pretty high and im sure it could even be higher on some games but the majority of draws will surely be under 7(?). If I just layed every game regardless of outcome to make 1pt I would be Negative 261pts in the hole. However, just playing around with the odds I decided to put the odds of all games to 5, laying every game blindly again actually produced a profit of 3.39pts with the return of 1.1%. I wish I had the odds to check all the games and see what the win ratio would be. I will use the chart above with this years season and see what blindly laying would produce.
I ran a plain marty system on the 7 odds as well to see what it wold say,
I also tried to split the losses of a Grand Marty system, so first I layed 1 point to every bet at odds of 7, then when the first loss came up (7 pt loss here), I split it into 2pt sections and added them to the following bets, beginning went fine till the sprouts of draws between 6 games really added to the future bets. Deep into this cycle it climbed up to the 100pts liability, still far below the 2,500pts the marty had already come across, but I came to realize that the 7 odds are skewing the data way to much, once again I would of been really happy to get the actual odds of all those games. I will use this season odds and run those same tests and see what it says, its only 38 games but hopefully it will at least give some sort of idea as to checking it out or not. Also just as a side note, apparently the draw happens 30% on average generally, for Man U this is what that time frames results were;
Bets Won: 607
Bets Lost: 140
Bets Total: 747
Win %: 81.3%
Lose %: 18.7%
Not a bad draw %, maybe the real value out of all of this is just to pick out those draws.