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Is Marty Really that bad?


While i have no knowledge of Football betting i think some interesting thoughts on staking in general are being shared on this thread. One poster above has said along the lines of in this game the best lessons learned are those which cost us money to which i would add providing we are prepared to accept and learn from same because sadly many backers spend a life time doing otherwise.

Re profit expectations and staking i learnt mine 40yrs ago while enjoying a prolonged purple patch i started to think hey i have cracked this game and quickly geared up my staking and as a result ended up doing the lot. I am not going to talk amounts but back in those days it was a substantial sum. All of those years ago yet i can still recall the totally gutted feelings involved.

The only positive being i did not attempt to chase my loses but instead took a step back from betting and spent the time attempting to analyse what had happened and why. My conclusions where to recommence with much safer and more disciplined staking or get out completely. It was touch and go either way but i decided on the former.

My plan was to wait until i had a 100pts bank and bet a 1pt win level stake for a whole calendar year and regardless of positive results to wait until the years end before implementing any profit based increase for the next 12 month period and pro rata. None of the profits where spent and i opened a separate bank account to facilitate this. I should add that at the time i was averaging 30 bets per year.

It took many years of the above before i reached the point whereby i was able to deploy a unit stake which produced a realistic annual turnover from which i could then start to take my worthwhile earn. While i fully understand that many would find this approach to be boring i would counter by asking where is the fun in going skint and no matter how much you think you know that possibility exists for us all.
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Making assumptions could cost you money.
Well In my theory I would place the bet regardless of the odds, I only chose 5 because I cant really remember seeing the draw odds over 4.something. I never thought the odds would get to 7! I wonder how many of the games over 5 odds ended in a draw? Where did you find that table with historical odds? I have found sites with historical odds in the past but they were in fractional odds so converting them to decimals will take a month of Sundays.

davejb davejb The idea of being sponsored by the Bookies sounds like a dream come true lol. I think I will check the top 6 teams in EPL and maybe a few other leagues and see how they all compare. What I would really like is to get a spreadsheet of horse racing results as they have the same win/lose ratio as the draw but with so many races everyday there will be much more data to test the theory. I don't know if paper trading the idea would even be worth the time, as regardless of the paper results the losing streak could start on day 1 of real money trading. If I find the results are similar across the teams/leagues then I may just try out a paper trial. On a side note, I can not for the life of me get Geeks Toys for Matchbook to work (South Africans don't get the privilege of Betfair), do you or anyone else here perhaps know something about Geeks Toys?


While i fully understand that many would find this approach to be boring
Nothing boring to me about making a steady profit!! But I do get what you mean, there is a bit of excitement with sports betting. My big loss was building my bank from 100pts to 550pts, around the 300pts I realized I had a "knack" so the bets got bigger. Turns out I didn't have a knack after all, the amount I lost was the equivalent to 2 months of my salary at that time so I was not a happy chappy! But I learned a solid lesson which was worth more than I lost, hindsight is a beauty.


OK so here is Man U this season:


Grouped home and away games and as you can see the away games had a very good run of draws!


Thats one after another and as you can see the odds are high in the draw run.

Not a great run of things as a random sample!


OK so here is Man U this season:
That is actually quite interesting, also showing that 5.97 odds doesn't always mean a win. A normal Marty would work with a very high liability on the winning bet and where splitting the bets would bring the liability down, having a string of bets with results like D-D-W-D-D-W-D-W would throw the split ratio off quite a bit. Split every loss then? Would probably recoup once there is a streak of No Draws but if there is a longer streak of mixed Wins/Losses that would also push the liability up quite high (how high I wonder?). I wonder if by splitting a loss to recoup it over a series of bets may bring down the high bankroll and lengthen the amount of losses in a losing streak that makes Marty a downer? Or is it worse and the chances of ruin are higher?


Imagine this thought 0

View attachment 101204

2 years in a row saw 7 draws in a row!!! thats a big hit one year and a big hit the following
That is a pretty big hit. I placed there last 700 games results into my bet tracker so I could run some theories, I don't have odds for the games and every assumption I have made so far has been far off the mark. In any case I have to feed the odds in so I started with putting every games lay odds at 7, this is pretty high and im sure it could even be higher on some games but the majority of draws will surely be under 7(?). If I just layed every game regardless of outcome to make 1pt I would be Negative 261pts in the hole. However, just playing around with the odds I decided to put the odds of all games to 5, laying every game blindly again actually produced a profit of 3.39pts with the return of 1.1%. I wish I had the odds to check all the games and see what the win ratio would be. I will use the chart above with this years season and see what blindly laying would produce.
I ran a plain marty system on the 7 odds as well to see what it wold say,
I also tried to split the losses of a Grand Marty system, so first I layed 1 point to every bet at odds of 7, then when the first loss came up (7 pt loss here), I split it into 2pt sections and added them to the following bets, beginning went fine till the sprouts of draws between 6 games really added to the future bets. Deep into this cycle it climbed up to the 100pts liability, still far below the 2,500pts the marty had already come across, but I came to realize that the 7 odds are skewing the data way to much, once again I would of been really happy to get the actual odds of all those games. I will use this season odds and run those same tests and see what it says, its only 38 games but hopefully it will at least give some sort of idea as to checking it out or not. Also just as a side note, apparently the draw happens 30% on average generally, for Man U this is what that time frames results were;
Bets Won: 607
Bets Lost: 140
Bets Total: 747
Win %: 81.3%
Lose %: 18.7%

Not a bad draw %, maybe the real value out of all of this is just to pick out those draws.