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If winning was dynamite i couldn't blow my own Trilby off... or could I?

Trilby

Trilby

Just a few bets and comments from a "mug" punter who loves the game, if I follow the advert "when the fun stops, stop!" I should be doing this for a very long time

Any how a few for today

1.20 filles de champs 1 pw 14/1 winner :hi: & court challenge 2 pw 7/4 3rd
2.20 capilla 2/1 nap 3rd
3.20 present times 13/8 NB 2nd

1.35 going concern 6/1 3rd

All bog
 
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easy way to find winners will follow on with reasoning later
1.05 cyrius moroviere 1pw bfsp :cry:

1.50 oxwich bay 3pw bfsp :cry:
 
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Looking forward to your blog and your reasoning behind your easy way selections good luck with this trilby!
 
Simple really Tony go to the sporting life website

under stats go to trainer stats, look at 7 day form and 14 day form anyone 30% or better note the runners they are sending out for the day, I then have 3 points if it won lto 2 post if it won 2 last time out and a point if it won its 3rd last race, there are plenty to get stuck into and you can assure a) the horse knows how to win and b) the yards horses are in good health amazing the winners this throw up and good prices too
 
Well done Trilby Trilby good start with your picks today. Tough day so well done finding a winner and a good priced one too :handgestures-thumbup:

I quite like your other method too simple but logical. I find it easy to overcomplicate things for myself.will watch with interest good luck :clap:
 
Right let me finish what I started on another thread ..........

Low grade handicaps that's it I knew I would remember and get around to it... I have read lots of various books on different things racing and most of it is either to cack to be true or to complicated and a masters is required, what could one offer that would help a novice and more experienced punter alike with an honest view of things ?

I hope this may help they person who is looking and improving what they do and it may even help some of the elite punters here after all we are all learners at this wonderful varied sport they call racing.

now why low class racing? well I reckon these races are easier to narrow down to a handful of runners ...3/4 at most and you can then dutch/f/cast/tricast have wone bet with a saver which ever suits.

Now if the handicapper has is way he wants all the runners to finish in a straight line but we all know different conditions/surfaces/times of year/trainer form will mean we have a different result.

so the main reason for looking at these older more "exposed types" is that you very quickly can get a feel for their likes and dislikes.

so here are some handy hints tips to help, again not all of this is my own work some of which I have read and seen elsewhere but I have added to it and it will help I believe.

1)for the older more exposed runner 4yo strike out any horse which hasn't won in the last 2 seasons takes out maidens and horses returning from long layoffs

2)knock out any horse that won last time out if its record shows it has never backed up a win before amazing when you look through the history of a horse at this level who never follow up

now stay with me please ........ if you can see another reason why the horse has improved then give it some more thought ie the horses last win was the first time at a new trip, new surface, for a new stable, had a breathing op you may want to give it another chance as there could be a key found to unlock some improvement.

3) make sure the horse has won in todays class or higher, exposed older types often have ceilings that there hooves will not allow them to improve upon

4) must be within 3ilb of last winning mark

5) make sure the horse likes the distance preferably a win but look at pervious performances for a guide I am a big fan of lesser exposed 3yo going up in trip but not such a fan of older horses coming back in trip,


more to follow Tommorow
 
12.35 i am keen on the chances of double treasure is the unexposed runner in the field and i make this a two horse race between the selection and twentyeightguns the laters last 2 good runs have come at Dai waters bog and I'm never confident that the form from the bog holds up, granted he has more chase experience, yet he is now 10ilb higher than his last win in a class 5 at the bog, and they are now dropping him back down in trip which suggests to me a little doubt.

the selection being out of Kings theatre will relish the step up in trip he travelled smoothly into the race and gave the impression further would suit and at the prices 7/2 seemed to big
 
elmoputney said:
It's certainly not the easiest game to play,last week I could find lots of winners this week I couldn't find the end of my nose with my finger :oops:
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I know that feeling.! but i think one of the best pieces of advice i have read recently came from pete pete along the lines of create a plan you feel good about and then stay with it.Based on what i see so many punters are flitters ? constantly changing from one method or system to another when the instant profits they seek are not forth coming.You are right elmo its a very hard game indeed, but playing the long game is an important part imo.
 
the 1.05 at Bangor will be a right old slog Krackotoa king heads the market and has changed yards to Kerry Lees on the 16th of nvember from Noel Williams, not ownership just yards so that could bring about some improvement and is down in grade for his reappearance fot the new yard, slight concern they havnt been firng of late and her record 1st time out and after a break do not inspire so maybe worth looking elsewhere although that said she does well with here short priced runners

millicnet silver would hold claims c/d winner and was creeping when bought down at kelso

but my preference is for rocky bender as my main bet with a saver on the other 2 and a combi f/cast to boot, a spin over far to short lto and i think he will be spot on today

Trilby
 
Trilby said:
12.35 i am keen on the chances of double treasure is the unexposed runner in the field and i make this a two horse race between the selection and twentyeightguns the laters last 2 good runs have come at Dai waters bog and I'm never confident that the form from the bog holds up, granted he has more chase experience, yet he is now 10ilb higher than his last win in a class 5 at the bog, and they are now dropping him back down in trip which suggests to me a little doubt.

the selection being out of Kings theatre will relish the step up in trip he travelled smoothly into the race and gave the impression further would suit and at the prices 7/2 seemed to big
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Got that totally wrong but unfortunately that's racing
 
a poor day today unfortunately but I never judge anything on a day, always long term on this game

that's it now a few days off r&r and then its the boxing day bonanza which I absolutely adore

have a very merry Christmas and I hope any earlier confusion is sorted and no lasting damage is Done

Trilby
 
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