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How far back?

runnerjp

Colt
Thought best start a new thread and perhaps spark some thoughts.

When looking at a horses past performances and rating them how far back do you go?

I have read alot over last 2 days about vdw and noticed that its looks at the horses last 3 performances which to me seems alittle 2 few. Surly 1 bad run , after all we all have an off day right, can throw these figures in the wrong direction. The same can be said for to many races as i have seen people look at every single performance a horse has done but then you are not getting a clear picture of the current form or perhaps the lead up to an event , trainers targeting a race perhaps or aims being different like going from flat to jumps.

So with this in mind how many would be a good place to start.. judging by what i think above 5 prev races sounds about right or am i over thinking this???

As an added note hopefully my questions over the last week and the answers given have helped me put together something i am able to share and give back in the coming weeks :)
 
D

Deleted member 4117

Guest
runnerjp runnerjp I think how far apart the runs were is fairly relevant, if they've had a layoff vs. returning fresh-3 recent runs is going to be different to 2 runs spaced a long way apart then a 7 day return after the 2nd race. Not something I really know about though, I specialise in systems rather than ratings!
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi runnerjp runnerjp do you produce Ratings yourself, if not that would be a good starting point as you would know how each Rating was achieved by each individually horse.
Some unexposed horses give an indication that they are ahead of the BHA Handicapper on their last run. Others will have been pushed up above their class Ceiling and will not win again until the BHA Handicapper drops them down to enough to get back to within their class Ceiling. Until then the Trainer will have been running the horse over a series of runs to get its BHA Rating Down.

There is no one size fits all when looking at Form.
 
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runnerjp

Colt
Very valid points guys

Chesham Chesham i have produced ratings for football in which i have taken the last 5 and 10 games approach as during the season things can change depending where they sit in the league. This was the thought i was looking to take across to my horse ratings.
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
runnerjp runnerjp - very good question - technically you really want to get a full career picture of any horse you consider backing but for the purpose of constructing ratings that's a different story - most people either doing Traditional Form or Time rating , take the days results and rate from there , with form and time you only need to get a handle on the winner , then its automatic deductions for lbs and lengths behind depending on what scale you use. If you are just starting from scratch , unless you had a database with automation it would be impossible to backfit ratings even for one season. So if you are doing this , just make a start and keep going , once you have a few months ratings done , you can start using them. But it is very time consuming. Sounds as if your rating races on the day or night before the race. Most of these type of methods use the last 3 Races (VDW etc) and involve some calculations like class / form/ consistency. Recency plays a big part in racing , you just need to check a few days results to see that and most winners have shown something in the last 3 races. There are many ways to Rate horses and as Chesham Chesham relates the Offical BHA ratings are an ideal starting point , as the trainers abide (and abuse) by them. You can construct your own class ratings from them with a bit of creativity such as using the average OR , the median OR, % of Rivals beaten X the Rating , Price (converted to %) + weight(lbs) + OR - or even take the Top OR + Bottom OR and Divide by the Average OR - Just a few suggestions and best of luck - BTW - OR means Official Rating
 
1) I choose races of no more than 10 runners.
2) I note the first four in the betting forecast.
3) For Handicaps I concentrate on the top 5 in the weights.
4) Next I will check the Class & Plusform ratings and my own HRB ratings.
The four steps above will give me my list of probables,often my step 4 will add a runner or remove one from the list.The hard work follows on from that point.... Very often the race will be swerved but it has only cost me a bit of time and probably saved me my money.I do like to be on the side of a runner that is being asked to do no more than it has previously proved it can achieve given the race conditions faced that day.

nicksar, Jun 19, 2016 Report

runnerjp runnerjp the above is an extract from a post I made on another part of the forum a while back,in this game one of the most important things to bear in mind is your own mental "comfort zone" by that I mean understanding whether you can maintain your discipline during long losing runs?.....personally I can't mentally cope with extended losing runs so the four steps above will (almost by default) allow me to hone in on the area where the highest percentage of winners will be coming from,the downside is I rarely back or select big priced winners,and that's fine with me if I can make an acceptable ROI.
Most commercially available ratings will be pretty similar in terms of the top rated two or three runners...I may be wrong, but in my experience no set of ratings you will find (or develop yourself) is going to give you a steady flow of top rated big priced winners...in fact if you compile any league table of ratings year in year out you will find that "the Favourite" will have the highest strike rate of winners...of course backing them blindly will eventually wipe you out.
My advice (given that you are just staring out on the journey) is keep things simple for a while and gradually build up your knowledge and add things to your methodology over a longish period as your confidence grows,Keep records of your bets and make notes you can refer back to.....in this digital age we live in the pen & paper can give you an edge many no longer use.
 

mick

Sire
Attempting to answer the OP question has caused me plenty of problems in the past (still does).I used to use current and the previous season as the how far back filter.Then i tried 10 rns or one year.Both serve as decent filters if this is your need but current times i use none and treat each as a one off ,and if for example i find a relevant rating from 2yrs ago i will investigate what has occurred in between times before deciding if i feel able to use it.
 

markfinn

Sire
I disagree Mark - the average OR is a quick and easy way to reference a handicaps class. It is a useful metric and can be compared Average OR Current race v Average OR Last Race

Fortunately we can disagree at our own expense -

What do averages tell you = Averages - nothing more - nothing less - if you want to know the average horse in the field work with averages - if you want to know what is actually up to winning you need winning form to compare with those in today's race - Averages will include all those races where -

the horse was not fit
not put in the race
put in race and then eased down when a win was not possible

Even winning averages yield little usable info as you need to know what they beat - believe me I have tried - winning form - what class - what weight carried - going - etc - etc - not many shortcuts

Hi runnerjp runnerjp do you produce Ratings yourself, if not that would be a good starting point as you would know how each Rating was achieved by each individually horse.
Some unexposed horses give an indication that they are ahead of the BHA Handicapper on their last run. Others will have been pushed up above their class Ceiling and will not win again until the BHA Handicapper drops them down to enough to get back to within their class Ceiling. Until then the Trainer will have been running the horse over a series of runs to get its BHA Rating Down.

There is no one size fits all when looking at Form.

the above Chesham Chesham post says it all - all those wasted prep races - the races used to get a favourable OR mark - all up and down the scale and even across classes - all add to the misleading average -

Lets say we have a jumping contest and the average man is 5ft 7 tall and weighs 11st and when at full stretch can reach 8ft - what use is that - If I tell this man is 6ft tall weighs 10st and can jump higher and therefore reach further than the next best - that's what I want to know.

Mean averages may be a cut of point for laying but cannot see how to use them straight win backing.

willing to learn
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
markfinn markfinn - an experienced answer Mark and i do not really disagree with any of that. But let me add my tuppence worth to it - runnerjp runnerjp was looking for a quickish rating method and has admitted he has not the experience of rating etc - i gave around 5 suggestions yet you jumped on the first one? Regarding winning form - what if in a 0-70 - a 61 rated horse wins - while up it's tail are a 69 and a 71 - you would rate that race off the 61 just because that's the winner. Regarding the wasted races in the lead up to a win , most times the average OR of a race will reveal the races a horse CANT win , then when it is fit and ready most times it will be placed in a race below its capability (Lower Avg OR) Another one of my suggestions was % of Rival Beaten which Timeform use - once again it is rated against the average 50% (par) = I know all the statistical arguments around averages but this game depends on how a 1250lb animal is feeling on the day and most metrics are at best guesses Mark. I agree that their are better methods than using the average but in this case with Handicaps / ORs - it actually has quite a bit of worth.
 
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ARAZI91

Gelding
markfinn markfinn - the reason it works Mark is because the rating Bands are relatively tight - Most Handicappers on the flat are rated between mid 40s to around just over 100 tops - 55 Lbs / 5Classes - Around 11 lb per Class level (hey another average;)). - And in any one handicap the OR range is what - 14lbs but normally tighter sround 9-10lbs. Also why would averages be more useful for laying Mark?.
 
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ARAZI91

Gelding
markfinn markfinn - the 6ft man would be 1-20 on because everybody would SEE his height advantage - its the same with horses - the ones with the above average past performances, the above average trainers & connections etc etc are just not profitable any more. Not even on BF.
 

markfinn

Sire
markfinn markfinn - an experienced answer Mark and i do not really disagree with any of that. But let me add my tuppence worth to it - runnerjp runnerjp was looking for a quickish rating method and has admitted he has not the experience of rating etc - i gave around 5 suggestions yet you jumped on the first one? Regarding winning form - what if in a 0-70 - a 61 rated horse wins - while up it's tail are a 69 and a 71 - you would rate that race off the 61 just because that's the winner. Regarding the wasted races in the lead up to a win , most times the average OR of a race will reveal the races a horse CANT win , then when it is fit and ready most times it will be placed in a race below its capability (Lower Avg OR) Another one of my suggestions was % of Rival Beaten which Timeform use - once again it is rated against the average 50% (par) = I know all the statistical arguments around averages but this game depends on how a 1250lb animal is feeling on the day and most metrics are at best guesses Mark. I agree that their are better methods than using the average but in this case with Handicaps / ORs - it actually has quite a bit of worth.

I agree with the 1st 4 and did not jump on the averages - merely stated that in my experience averages do not get us to where we want to go


markfinn markfinn - the reason it works Mark is because the rating Bands are relatively tight - Most Handicappers on the flat are rated between mid 40s to around just over 100 tops - 55 Lbs / 5Classes - Around 11 lb per Class level (hey another average;)). - And in any one handicap the OR range is what - 14lbs but normally tighter sround 9-10lbs. Also why would averages be more useful for laying Mark?.

I agree Incredibly tight bands and that's the reason why some horse's can move between bands successfully and reason why some just cannot - if a horse cannot get above its average the trainer will be forced to seek a handicap reduction thereby hopefully placing it at the top of next class of rating above the class average.

Laying -if you know a horse can not match the average ie the half way point in a race - why would it be good proposition to back it

markfinn markfinn - the 6ft man would be 1-20 on because everybody would SEE his height advantage - its the same with horses - the ones with the above average past performances, the above average trainers & connections etc etc are just not profitable any more. Not even on BF.

Your last point - I think that's what the odds on backers would call a good thing - but he might have an of day because of this and that - finding out the relevant this and that's - is where the advantage lays they can be in the Form Books

Every race has a winner and I agree there is no one way to do any of this and I am sure some success will be found by backing averages - only record keeping will inform as to efficacy of the method - I tried working with averages it looked OK- but then I back tracked it over my records and found it was actually not much use and was costing not adding- all methods will find winners even the house wife's choice or the dart throw - we have to work with what works for the individual and if working with averages helps find someone enough winners - crack on.

I thought he was asking for advice - mine was in my experience averages are not worth using

Not arguing just discussing
 
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ARAZI91

Gelding
I agree Incredibly tight bands and that's the reason why some horse's can move between bands successfully and reason why some just cannot - if a horse cannot get above its average the trainer will be forced to seek a handicap reduction thereby hopefully placing it at the top of next class of rating above the class average.

markfinn markfinn Think their is Crossed Wires here Mark
When i talk about the average OR of the Race - I am not looking to back any horse under that - I WILL be looking to be backing one that has dropped from a higher average OR last race and is racing well above its capabilility - BUT only by tracking the average OR of each and every race will i know when that is
it has nothing to do with backing average horses , but has plenty to do with capability , opportunity & class ceilings.
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
I agree Incredibly tight bands and that's the reason why some horse's can move between bands successfully and reason why some just cannot - if a horse cannot get above its average the trainer will be forced to seek a handicap reduction thereby hopefully placing it at the top of next class of rating above the class average.

It is because of the narrow bands that the MAJORITY cannot move between levels - if you have access to a database - a 2 junp class rise is a very rare beast in horseracing so the majority have one level either way to work between. Because of this the average OR show up the majority of successful class drops. It even shows up "Hidden" Class drops = Same Class on Paper - Last Race Class 4 - AVG OR of the field 79 - This Race Class 4 - AVG OR of the field 71 - that is an 8lb drop.
 

mlmrob

Sire
The key is Average OR and Top OR, this gives the actual strength of the race providing all horses have an official rating.

The 7.40 is a 78-85 in other words quite a strong 0-85.

upload_2017-11-22_19-2-7.png

The above are the ratings of the last three races. the third column is the placing.

You can see at at a glance who is moving through the bands.

You can also see rank bad favourites such as Hattons Hill at Hexham today which was a 102-116.

upload_2017-11-22_19-6-10.png

The above is easily sourced with HRB.
 
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