How does Timeform calculate its figures
- Thread starter twmills
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
twmills said:
Timeform have their own set of Standard Times and even use hand timing on some courses. They also up rate using Sectional Times (Where available)
See Link http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing ... 12-43.html
The one aspect that I disagree with Timeform, is that they use the weight carried into their Final Rating (Note they use their own weight For Age Scale and not the BHA one)
Timeform will project before a race what the expected rating the runners will achieve, this will help them when deciding what going allowance to give for the respective races. ie if all the runners in the actual races achieve figures higher than they normal would then the course is riding faster than the standard that they are using and will adjust the ratings accordingly. Deciding on the going allowance is the tricky part of compiling speed figures and of course having a set of Standard Times that reflect the difference between each course.
If you have read my previous post on the Horses actual body weight, most will have an optimum Physical Bodyweight and this is an unknown factor to us punters in the UK. (Hong Kong publish the horses bodyweight before racing) Most of us will notice that if we are overweight it slows us down and if a horse is not at its optimum weight, then it will struggle to perform at its best.
Good Luck
Chesham
mlmrob
Sire
This might help from Simon Rowlands
betting.betfair.com
betting.betfair.com
Cheltenham Tips | Betting Tips for Cheltenham 2022 » Betfair
Cheltenham Festival Tips and previews for the 2022 Cheltenham: ✓Cheltenham Races Tips ✓Cheltenham Betting Offers ✓Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice
betting.betfair.com
Cheltenham Tips | Betting Tips for Cheltenham 2022 » Betfair
Cheltenham Festival Tips and previews for the 2022 Cheltenham: ✓Cheltenham Races Tips ✓Cheltenham Betting Offers ✓Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice
betting.betfair.com
ArkRoyal
Administrator
The following is taken from an article printed on 17 July 1996 in The Independant
"You only worry about the time when you are in jail," the trainer Luca Cumani said after Celestial Storm had failed to impress on the clock when winning Goodwood's March Stakes in 1985. Chris Wright begs to differ. He worries about the time . . . all the time.
Wright works for Timeform, the highly respected purveyors of racing data, and is the man behind their computer timefigures, originally devised by the company's founder, the legendary punter Phil Bull. Wright was Bull's protege and, since Bull's death in 1989, has compiled all Timeform's timefigures.
Whereas Timeform ratings (or any other kind of form ratings, for that matter) measure horses in terms of their performances against each other, timefigures measure the performance of horses in terms of time.
Wright explains. "When I receive the results of a day's racing the first thing I do is use Timeform's set of standard times for each distance at each racecourse to calculate the raw timefigures that each horse has recorded that day. All races are rated using five furlongs as a benchmark, for which we use a conversion rate when assessing horses of 0.4 seconds equals 1lb and 4lbs equals a length.
"By looking at the raw timefigures and using a mathematical calculation to compare them with the Timeform ratings of the horses involved, it then becomes possible to calculate a going allowance which tells you what impact the going has had on each time.
"There are other factors to consider. We take Met Office readings on the wind direction and can calculate by vector analysis how much that affects a particular race. For example, a following wind in a straight five furlongs race will have a different effect from that it will have on a race on a turning mile when the field is racing into the wind for maybe four furlongs.
"Moreover, the ground can differ on the straight course from that on the round track. By splitting up such races and assessing them separately, we can sometimes produce a more credible set of figures."
It all sounds very impressive but, while the clock cannot lie, can it mislead? If five races on a card are slowly run, will that not inevitably flatter the one that is not?
"Experience teaches you to avoid that," Wright says. "Recently, I was looking at the results from Musselburgh, where by far and away the fastest time over the day was the amateur riders' handicap in which the winner Swan At Whalley - and the next six home as well - appeared, at first glance, to have recorded exceptional timefigures, 10lb and upwards better than anything they had every achieved before.
"But experience tells you that the chances of a bunch of older sprint handicappers simultaneously improving by so much are extremely remote. In such instances, you use your judgement. A few days later Swan At Whalley ran and was beaten and I therefore feel vindicated in not giving the horse an exceptional figure at Musselburgh."
Wright says a lot of nonsense is talked about times. Some people think times can only be fast when the ground is firm. and comments from TV commentators like, "the ground is riding firm here this afternoon and the times are all very fast", or it's very soft here and all the times are slow", irritate him.
A time, Wright explains, can only be deemed fast or slow in relation to other times at the same racecourse on the same afternoon. A time can be very fast, considering the ground is heavy, or very slow, considering the ground is firm.
Wright rates the 1985 Derby winner, Slip Anchor, as one of the most exceptional horses he has rated. "He recorded a figure of 143 at Epsom" he says. Other great performances came from the 1990 Nunthorpe Stakes winner, Dayjur, who notched a 142, and Celtic Swing, who was credited with a 138 when he won the 1994 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster.
So, how come Celtic Swing failed to win the 1995 2,000 Guineas then?
"Timefigures, like all factors you evaluate when assessing a future horse race, have to be assessed in the context in which they took place," answers Wright. "Celtic Swing achieved his 138 on soft going over Doncaster's round mile in October as a two-year-old - after weight-for-age had been taken into account (Timeform reckon the average two-year-old is 21lb inferior to the average four-year-old over a mile in late October).
"The weight-for-age scale informs that two-year-olds improve by an average of 12lb between October and the 2,000 Guineas when they are three the following May, but there are enormous fluctuations within that mean average. Some horses improve by much more, while others don't improve at all or even deteriorate. That's one reason why three-year-old handicaps don't all end in multiple dead-heats.
"Moreover, while the Doncaster race was run on soft ground, the 2,000 Guineas was contested on a fast surface. No horse is guaranteed to reproduce a timefigure on different going or over a different distance come to that. Hence it comes as no great surprise that Celtic Swing could only manage a 130 (still a smart figure) and went down by a head to Pennekamp in that year's 2,000 Guineas."
So what are the best betting mediums for time enthusiasts? Well, while he is as susceptible to the odd ante-post punt as anyone else - he has backed Dazzle for the 1997 1,000 Guineas after the filly notched a timefigure of 118 when winning Newmarket's Cherry Hinton Stakes last week - Wright is particularly keen on all-weather racing.
"The going never varies and the races are usually truly run," he says. Timefigures are at their most useful when they enable the time student to be one step ahead of his form-book poring, collateral form-line obsessed rival.
On 2 March a three-year-old called Le Sport won a moderate Class E handicap from some mostly out-of-form rivals on the Fibresand at Wolverhampton. Most form students did not have a clue how to rate the form. Wright did.
Le Sport had recorded what, for that grade of racing, was an exceptional Timefigure of 91. When he turned out again in a Class C handicap at Wolverhampton the following Wednesday, Wright backed him at 5-1.
Did Le Sport win? Is Michael Portillo a Tory? Le Sport won on the bridle. By eight lengths.
"You only worry about the time when you are in jail," the trainer Luca Cumani said after Celestial Storm had failed to impress on the clock when winning Goodwood's March Stakes in 1985. Chris Wright begs to differ. He worries about the time . . . all the time.
Wright works for Timeform, the highly respected purveyors of racing data, and is the man behind their computer timefigures, originally devised by the company's founder, the legendary punter Phil Bull. Wright was Bull's protege and, since Bull's death in 1989, has compiled all Timeform's timefigures.
Whereas Timeform ratings (or any other kind of form ratings, for that matter) measure horses in terms of their performances against each other, timefigures measure the performance of horses in terms of time.
Wright explains. "When I receive the results of a day's racing the first thing I do is use Timeform's set of standard times for each distance at each racecourse to calculate the raw timefigures that each horse has recorded that day. All races are rated using five furlongs as a benchmark, for which we use a conversion rate when assessing horses of 0.4 seconds equals 1lb and 4lbs equals a length.
"By looking at the raw timefigures and using a mathematical calculation to compare them with the Timeform ratings of the horses involved, it then becomes possible to calculate a going allowance which tells you what impact the going has had on each time.
"There are other factors to consider. We take Met Office readings on the wind direction and can calculate by vector analysis how much that affects a particular race. For example, a following wind in a straight five furlongs race will have a different effect from that it will have on a race on a turning mile when the field is racing into the wind for maybe four furlongs.
"Moreover, the ground can differ on the straight course from that on the round track. By splitting up such races and assessing them separately, we can sometimes produce a more credible set of figures."
It all sounds very impressive but, while the clock cannot lie, can it mislead? If five races on a card are slowly run, will that not inevitably flatter the one that is not?
"Experience teaches you to avoid that," Wright says. "Recently, I was looking at the results from Musselburgh, where by far and away the fastest time over the day was the amateur riders' handicap in which the winner Swan At Whalley - and the next six home as well - appeared, at first glance, to have recorded exceptional timefigures, 10lb and upwards better than anything they had every achieved before.
"But experience tells you that the chances of a bunch of older sprint handicappers simultaneously improving by so much are extremely remote. In such instances, you use your judgement. A few days later Swan At Whalley ran and was beaten and I therefore feel vindicated in not giving the horse an exceptional figure at Musselburgh."
Wright says a lot of nonsense is talked about times. Some people think times can only be fast when the ground is firm. and comments from TV commentators like, "the ground is riding firm here this afternoon and the times are all very fast", or it's very soft here and all the times are slow", irritate him.
A time, Wright explains, can only be deemed fast or slow in relation to other times at the same racecourse on the same afternoon. A time can be very fast, considering the ground is heavy, or very slow, considering the ground is firm.
Wright rates the 1985 Derby winner, Slip Anchor, as one of the most exceptional horses he has rated. "He recorded a figure of 143 at Epsom" he says. Other great performances came from the 1990 Nunthorpe Stakes winner, Dayjur, who notched a 142, and Celtic Swing, who was credited with a 138 when he won the 1994 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster.
So, how come Celtic Swing failed to win the 1995 2,000 Guineas then?
"Timefigures, like all factors you evaluate when assessing a future horse race, have to be assessed in the context in which they took place," answers Wright. "Celtic Swing achieved his 138 on soft going over Doncaster's round mile in October as a two-year-old - after weight-for-age had been taken into account (Timeform reckon the average two-year-old is 21lb inferior to the average four-year-old over a mile in late October).
"The weight-for-age scale informs that two-year-olds improve by an average of 12lb between October and the 2,000 Guineas when they are three the following May, but there are enormous fluctuations within that mean average. Some horses improve by much more, while others don't improve at all or even deteriorate. That's one reason why three-year-old handicaps don't all end in multiple dead-heats.
"Moreover, while the Doncaster race was run on soft ground, the 2,000 Guineas was contested on a fast surface. No horse is guaranteed to reproduce a timefigure on different going or over a different distance come to that. Hence it comes as no great surprise that Celtic Swing could only manage a 130 (still a smart figure) and went down by a head to Pennekamp in that year's 2,000 Guineas."
So what are the best betting mediums for time enthusiasts? Well, while he is as susceptible to the odd ante-post punt as anyone else - he has backed Dazzle for the 1997 1,000 Guineas after the filly notched a timefigure of 118 when winning Newmarket's Cherry Hinton Stakes last week - Wright is particularly keen on all-weather racing.
"The going never varies and the races are usually truly run," he says. Timefigures are at their most useful when they enable the time student to be one step ahead of his form-book poring, collateral form-line obsessed rival.
On 2 March a three-year-old called Le Sport won a moderate Class E handicap from some mostly out-of-form rivals on the Fibresand at Wolverhampton. Most form students did not have a clue how to rate the form. Wright did.
Le Sport had recorded what, for that grade of racing, was an exceptional Timefigure of 91. When he turned out again in a Class C handicap at Wolverhampton the following Wednesday, Wright backed him at 5-1.
Did Le Sport win? Is Michael Portillo a Tory? Le Sport won on the bridle. By eight lengths.
