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How do I adjust for weight?

twmills

Colt
Hi All
I want to know about adjusting a speed figure for weight carried. I already when doing the ratings adjust to 9 stone, so if the the rating say was 50 and the horse carried 9-5 I would add 5 giving me 55.
Now lets say next time out the horse carries 9-7, how do I adjust the 55 to cater for the extra 2lbs, is it a matter of just subtracting the 2lbs extra from the rating of 55, making it 53 going into the race entered for.
 
Hi, no that isn't the way. Not sure why nobody has replied yet.

You've given it 55 if it were carrying 9 stone, as you rated it 50, but it was carrying 9-05, so if it were carrying 9-00 you are saying it should be able to run to 55. Therefore, if it was now to carry 9-07 you would expect it to run to 48. All other things being equal.
 
Thanks Chris so it is always adjust to 9st, can you tell me then about class adjustment, how do i adjust for class, say the the horse ran 55 in class 6, and is now running in class 5, and I adjust to 9st now 48, is there an adjustment for the different class.
 
That is the weight, which should 'in theory' compensate for class. So if your 55 rated runner achieved that in a class 6 carrying 9-05 (50 + 5lb) and is now running in a class 5 (assuming the HCPer hasn't altered it's official rating), then it will be carrying less weight than last time. If it were set to carry 8-10 in the class 5 event, then it should 'in theory' be capable of running to 59, all things being equal and that they go enough pace for weight to take full effect.
9-00 - 8-10 = +4lb.
4 +55 = 59

You are in essence forming a HCP system of your own which you can directly compare against the official ratings. If you have something rated at 55, but the official HCPer has it rated at 52, then you believe the horse to be 3lb 'well in'.
 
You're welcome. Everything else is down to choice......

Claiming Jockeys for example, you can include their claim or ignore it. Either way you'll have to consider it, so it's up to you if you factor that in. I made the decision to ignore the claim and add it back on, so I generally believe that the claim is a true reflection of the Jockeys ability. Others don't and calculate on actual weight carried, either way, it has to be considered. I have to consider if the Jockey is good for his claim, others will have to consider if the claim is a true reflection of ability (or not).

Another thing to watch out for is big colts carrying big weights. You can sometimes end up with inflated SF's, but usually not too far adrift. You'll see it in a horses profile over time, if it seems to always clock well when carrying big weights, then chances are weight doesn't affect it as much as it would an average runner (more so over sprint trips on fast ground).
Some will say that is why you shouldn't factor weight into calcs, but they also have to consider it each time, otherwise the top wights would win everything, yet it's actually quite an even spread. I've done it both ways, and for me it was much easier to factor weight in, as my SF's were far too bouncy without doing so.

Similar with factoring in a weight for age allowance. I'd rather do it and see it expressed as the average, than look each time and in my mind have to think, 'well that was a few Months ago', and have to consider it. I'd rather exercise a little caution when looking at SF's from earlier in a horses career and have average expectation of improvement displayed, I just find it easier that way.

Everything from the actual 'raw time' is all down to choice. From factoring in a Going Allowance, LBS per length variables, WFA allowances, Weight carried, Class allowances, Jockey claims, Draw and finally interpretation of replays (raced wide etc).

Regarding the replays, I strongly discourage you from making adjustments to SF's due to racing wide, bad break etc. If you start you'll have to do the lot, which is a huge workload. It's very unlikely you'll be able to maintain it, and you'll end up not knowing what has been adjusted and what hasn't. Same with the draw. The others you can set in stone and adhere to, as you'll know where you stand with them (what you've factored in), but the draw and luck in running is best kept as notes only. The notes can be a simple +7, meaning you've looked at the replay and decided that it could have run 7lbs better, or for an ease of victory +7 - 13? for example.

The only advice I can really offer, is that you consider the above elements, take your time setting out a plan of what you want to include and what not to. Understand the pitfalls of each factor fully, and the pitfalls of not including each factor fully, then make your choice, and stick with it. That way you'll have a full understanding of the figures you produce and therefore how best to use them. It doesn't matter how you compile SF's, considerations have to be taken when looking at them in future, understanding them is key and will save you a lot of time long term. So have a good think, set your stall out how you like it, and then start compiling.

Good luck.
 
I do not use SF preferring to formulate my ratings based around weight and lens but feel that Chris offers very sound advice above for anyone who wishes to produce there own numbers as a starting point or guide.With so many commercially available alternatives why the effort and what's the point.? Well my experience is that it will prove time well spent because in attempting to put the correct fig to a horses performance you learn more about it.Also better to come to trust and understand your own work than rely on a third party and there is the additional advantage that sometimes your own figs will be in positive conflict with the majority view and this can create a market edge.

It still comes down to not what you have created but rather how you interpret and use it this is always the difficult part but then why should it be otherwise.;)
 
Well my experience is that it will prove time well spent because in attempting to put the correct fig to a horses performance you learn more about it.Also better to come to trust and understand your own work than rely on a third party and there is the additional advantage that sometimes your own figs will be in positive conflict with the majority view and this can create a market edge.

That is precisely both the purpose and advantage, Mick.
 
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