Best of luck
T
tacker
The debut run does make you have to have a 2nd look, but the stallion has a reputation for early 2yo's and the mare so far has been pretty desperate, with two other offspring rated 38 after 3 runs ( Mark Johnston) and 46 after 6 runs ( Grant Tuer).
Even assuming Bungle is ahead of it's mark, the fact her best recent run was over 6f on heavy and comes back to 5f here would concern me, espeacially as I can't see the front pace horses collapsing.
The fact she was entered in a listed race by her previous connections, may be a sign she has ability, but it really is a case of whether she's regressive or well treated. If the the horse who finished 1 place ahead of her lto in the better class race had perfomed better in Amasova's race, would have grabbed my interest.
It may simply have been a case of collecting £300 and getting a h/cap drop though.
You Have Charmed Me really takes the eye off 56 in stall1 with on two runs to date, but without knowing the reason for the layoff and whether she can utilise her draw is enough to pass her over with regret.
The market seems totally against Arceus in stall 2, so the race could fall into the hands of Onaledge in stall 3. Unless YHCM can find early speed from the 1 stall, Onaledge really should get the perfect tracking spot behind the outer pace horses, who could easily end up stuggling for space on the turn.
The fav Amasova has a decent chance, but she got a dream run round lto when 3rd, sticking to the inside rail and although well berthed again in stall 4, I can't see her getting the same passage this time.
Onaledge may be freindless in the market on a the fact she has been beaten recently in less competetive races and her win has failed to prove to be of any value.
However, it's worth looking her last run over C&D, when the 5lb claimer looked to have every chance of victory, but ran into a brick wall 1f out and basically put the brakes on . What is worth considering is the growling look Hollie Doyle gave Ghiani as he tried to force his way through.
They finished 8th and 9th of 11 in that race, both with similar finishing speeds on account of the barging. Holbache's final 1f was 12.61 from a decent pitch and he won a nursery nto off the same mark albeit on heavy, but it looks C5 class and gives a close collateral line with the fav Amasova, through Miss Nay Never, who is now rated 79.
Onaledge looked to have the strongest chance in that Wolver race , but could only finsih the last 1f with a 12.68 with plenty of horse under the jock.
The switch to a pro jock does make sense here, as he will need to be ridden with confidence and hopefully get a better early pitch at the start. With a 50 day break on a young horse, always a risk she will do too much at the start, but she looks fairly straight forward based on her previous runs.