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How best to read form ?

I took my rating from his Jan 1st run but while only done a nk he was still beaten.
Looking at that race, on the day he earned an RPR of 79 + off an OR of 64, adding the two together = (Total 143), which gives Samovar a class rating on the day of 67/68 ref my class total sheet, today he races off a mark of 68, I see that he is now being nibbled at in the betting.


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Mike.
 

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Hi Mike he remains a best 9/1 at present and i need 10/1 to enable taking an interest. :) I have to go out for a while now so sods law etc. !
 
wolv 5.40...cl5 2yr old nursery 5fur

A most horrible race you can choose to look at because of all the uncertainties involved with a field of mainly disappointing racehorses, normally i would just dismiss and move on but my eye was drawn to a filly with a daft name so i thought it best to have a closer look.

BUNGLEDUPINBLUE ...a filly out of Bungleupinthejungle so great attempt at naming her and connections would have been well pleased with her debut newm 5f where she ran a really promising 3rd btn 3L behind Sacred now rated 108, further back that day was Happy Romance who got the better of blue when they met again over 5f sand heavy, only 3 runners with the 3rd tailed off but it is likely that connections would be a little down but hopeful of better going forward.

Her next run again over 5f ling aw connections might have hoped she might take a step forward but while she ran ok to finish 2nd it couldn't be said to have been any more than "not too bad" and move on, so they let her take her chance in that big sprint sales race at newbury 5f with £84,000 to the winner but she finished 14th behind Happy Romance 0/30f , connections might look at Lullaby Blue 7/2 2nd fav who went on to win 3 more races and is now rated 100 and further back that day.

Clearly the early optimism connection had for BLUE were now on the skids and her next race was a 6f 4 runner c5 nursary off a mark of 75 where she finished last btn 6L so she is clearly improving at a much slower rate than many others of her age and connections now put her in a seller 6f leic where she finished a close up 4th but now moved on to H J EVANS and a new home (how often do we think about what this might mean to a 2yr old filly? ) and clearly she will be fishing in much less deeper waters from that nice day at newm in june, so after a 7week break she tries 6f hvy nov where a 2nd place finish confirms her new rating of 67 for her new connections.

So to her most recent run where off that mark of 67 she was sent to kemp 6f with laura claiming 5lb she finished 5th of 6 btn over 5L at sp of 25/1 she achieved what her odds suggested but it was a c4 nursery so what would you expect ?

So back to the point and what chance today a c5 nursery over 5f 21yds where she runs off a mark of 64 and now 48 ibs lower than the horse she was ahead of on her newm debut Happy Romance 108 but from a form reading point of view meaningless, many of her opponents today will have a similar tale of woe, laura will do her best today for sure but won't be knocking her about on this cold night in wolves.
So can she win ? of course she can and at 16/1 some might see something in the formbook which i have touched on and take the risk. if i had two halfpennies to rub together i would buy this filly with the daft name but I don't want be backing her tonight.
 
Interesting read above T tacker good effort well done. When i first became involved in the game much of the " expert " advice suggested that 2yo races where the best medium for the serious backer. They never worked for me on balance but during the period of my involvement the best memories came from the 2yo Hcaps. :)

As an aside prob of no interest to anyone when looking at todays Wolv 5.10 4 day decs i started to feel tempted to end my current sulk with the place by way of Secret Potion. But I found myself becoming increasingly wound up that the 48 hr decs had apparently become 24 hr ones and you can now guess the outcome because when they finally became available yesterday morning Secret was a N/r. :mad:
 
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H T tacker

My May concern is that the Trainer has not had that many 2 Y_O’s and has not managed to get a winner from one in 29 attempts. my thought is why try to get a win from the horse now when as a 3 Y-O could get WFA for this horse off an even lower BHA Rating. Carries 19 LB more weight than LTO

C31E473A-D5D3-417C-8618-44C920F4EFAB.jpeg
in Handicaps with horses older than 2 , his track record is 2/65 and those 2 winners were in 2011 and 2006

The best place to check out this trainer in AW Handicaps is Southwell where he has had 10 winner and in profit
 
She looks to have been a bit of a madam T tacker reading her stewards reports. She has worn the Red Hood twice in the parade ring even when there have been no crowds. She has failed a stalls test. Since moving to James Evans he hasn't used any aids with her, maybe he has found the key. Good Luck.
mlmrob mlmrob " a bit of a madam " indeed and good points made about crowds and headgear, the point i was trying to get across was that in going through her history via the formbook it told me a story of a young filly who might prefer to be doing something other than racing but obviously she is a racehorse first.
 
Interesting posts above. Thank you all!
.
Re 2yos: I tried them for several years, but, only scraped by with about a 7% return on outlay.
Generally try to avoid them now, except with certain trainers ( including R. Hughes) and only at prices =>than 5/1.

I found it was bc I backed on "form in the book" ( there ain't much for 2yos) and , therefore, top-end of the market that I didn't do very well. The bigger "shock" winners saved my bacon.
Others will think different. One bloke told me " they keep their form better". I didn't agree and ask "what form?" Just a handful of races, including plenty of prepping and schooling.
Not for me, anymore, as a general rule.
There are always exceptions. :D
 
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wolv 5.40...cl5 2yr old nursery 5fur

A most horrible race you can choose to look at because of all the uncertainties involved with a field of mainly disappointing racehorses, normally i would just dismiss and move on but my eye was drawn to a filly with a daft name so i thought it best to have a closer look.

BUNGLEDUPINBLUE ...a filly out of Bungleupinthejungle so great attempt at naming her and connections would have been well pleased with her debut newm 5f where she ran a really promising 3rd btn 3L behind Sacred now rated 108, further back that day was Happy Romance who got the better of blue when they met again over 5f sand heavy, only 3 runners with the 3rd tailed off but it is likely that connections would be a little down but hopeful of better going forward.

Her next run again over 5f ling aw connections might have hoped she might take a step forward but while she ran ok to finish 2nd it couldn't be said to have been any more than "not too bad" and move on, so they let her take her chance in that big sprint sales race at newbury 5f with £84,000 to the winner but she finished 14th behind Happy Romance 0/30f , connections might look at Lullaby Blue 7/2 2nd fav who went on to win 3 more races and is now rated 100 and further back that day.

Clearly the early optimism connection had for BLUE were now on the skids and her next race was a 6f 4 runner c5 nursary off a mark of 75 where she finished last btn 6L so she is clearly improving at a much slower rate than many others of her age and connections now put her in a seller 6f leic where she finished a close up 4th but now moved on to H J EVANS and a new home (how often do we think about what this might mean to a 2yr old filly? ) and clearly she will be fishing in much less deeper waters from that nice day at newm in june, so after a 7week break she tries 6f hvy nov where a 2nd place finish confirms her new rating of 67 for her new connections.

So to her most recent run where off that mark of 67 she was sent to kemp 6f with laura claiming 5lb she finished 5th of 6 btn over 5L at sp of 25/1 she achieved what her odds suggested but it was a c4 nursery so what would you expect ?

So back to the point and what chance today a c5 nursery over 5f 21yds where she runs off a mark of 64 and now 48 ibs lower than the horse she was ahead of on her newm debut Happy Romance 108 but from a form reading point of view meaningless, many of her opponents today will have a similar tale of woe, laura will do her best today for sure but won't be knocking her about on this cold night in wolves.
So can she win ? of course she can and at 16/1 some might see something in the formbook which i have touched on and take the risk. if i had two halfpennies to rub together i would buy this filly with the daft name but I don't want be backing her tonight.
Great post reminds me of my early days on here - lots to read and learn from, almost every day some good posters are now sadly NRd some post well and dispear just as quickly as they arrive , but recently some really good additions and you although not a new poster now T tacker are up there with the best - I like the diversity of your posts - not just stuck in the same classes or races and the fact that you support most others by offering a view - keep on doing what you are doing.
 
Best of luck T tacker

The debut run does make you have to have a 2nd look, but the stallion has a reputation for early 2yo's and the mare so far has been pretty desperate, with two other offspring rated 38 after 3 runs ( Mark Johnston) and 46 after 6 runs ( Grant Tuer).

Even assuming Bungle is ahead of it's mark, the fact her best recent run was over 6f on heavy and comes back to 5f here would concern me, espeacially as I can't see the front pace horses collapsing.

The fact she was entered in a listed race by her previous connections, may be a sign she has ability, but it really is a case of whether she's regressive or well treated. If the the horse who finished 1 place ahead of her lto in the better class race had perfomed better in Amasova's race, would have grabbed my interest.

It may simply have been a case of collecting £300 and getting a h/cap drop though.

You Have Charmed Me really takes the eye off 56 in stall1 with on two runs to date, but without knowing the reason for the layoff and whether she can utilise her draw is enough to pass her over with regret.

The market seems totally against Arceus in stall 2, so the race could fall into the hands of Onaledge in stall 3. Unless YHCM can find early speed from the 1 stall, Onaledge really should get the perfect tracking spot behind the outer pace horses, who could easily end up stuggling for space on the turn.

The fav Amasova has a decent chance, but she got a dream run round lto when 3rd, sticking to the inside rail and although well berthed again in stall 4, I can't see her getting the same passage this time.

Onaledge may be freindless in the market on a the fact she has been beaten recently in less competetive races and her win has failed to prove to be of any value.

However, it's worth looking her last run over C&D, when the 5lb claimer looked to have every chance of victory, but ran into a brick wall 1f out and basically put the brakes on . What is worth considering is the growling look Hollie Doyle gave Ghiani as he tried to force his way through.

They finished 8th and 9th of 11 in that race, both with similar finishing speeds on account of the barging. Holbache's final 1f was 12.61 from a decent pitch and he won a nursery nto off the same mark albeit on heavy, but it looks C5 class and gives a close collateral line with the fav Amasova, through Miss Nay Never, who is now rated 79.

Onaledge looked to have the strongest chance in that Wolver race , but could only finsih the last 1f with a 12.68 with plenty of horse under the jock.

The switch to a pro jock does make sense here, as he will need to be ridden with confidence and hopefully get a better early pitch at the start. With a 50 day break on a young horse, always a risk she will do too much at the start, but she looks fairly straight forward based on her previous runs.
 
Good thread T tacker, I haven’t yet read all of it but there are plenty of interesting points from what I have read. Formscan on attheraces as you mentioned, as well as other similar form comparison tools are a good way to do it. There are often conflicting form lines, especially at low level, as some of these horses seem to take turns in beating each other. Thing I give most importance to when comparing form is if there is a formline that has two or more horses over same course and distance, as I find more often than not these formlines to be most reliable. Then I will look at other things like going and draw to see if it can be a big enough factor for earlier formlines to be reversed. The more recent the formline is the more important I consider it, also consider if one of the horses could be an improver and if one of the horses was returning from a break in a previous formline then I would consider that an important factor that could see earlier form reversed.

Looking at today’s race, there are not many direct formlines involving these, so have to go on other things. You make a good case for Bungledupinblue, and the race she ran in earlier would suggest that she was thought of better than a 60s rated horse, and her pedigree backs up that view (dam half-sister to likes of Leitrim House (Group 3 winner), Place In My Heart (Listed winner) and very good handicapper Ace Of Hearts among other winners). Jockey is a bit of negative for me today, Laura Coughlan hasn’t had a winner for over two months, in fairness she hasn’t had many rides during that time, but still it’s a negative as there are other jockeys in race that have been among the winners.

I am not betting in the race, but If I had to pick one then I would go with You’ve Charmed Me (12/1), only had a a couple of runs and hasn’t run since June, but those two early runs don’t look bad and she could potentially be on a good mark on 56. Interesting jockey booking, Shane Gray 3 winners from 8 in last fortnight, and I think this is the first time he is riding for Archie Watson. Couple of others at big prices, Arceus (50/1) has only had 4 runs, debut run showed promise but very little since then, dam ran well here a couple of times without winning. Red Walls (40/1), 2nd over CD last time albeit beaten nearly 5 lengths, good apprentice on board today, and he actually has a formline with one of the favourites, finished 4 lengths ahead of Elland Road Boy at Chester and is 20 lbs better off today, they filled last two places in that race though so can’t give too much importance to it.

Good luck with your selections.
 
Well, unfortunately, Bungle bungled the start with that rear up in the stalls.
Looked well before the race and went in last, which I like. Unlucky.

I haven't had a great day's punting, with Bill Knight's short one getting beat into 2nd.
A small saver on the other Evans' runner in the last helped a bit. I couldn't put it up, as I only did it for old time's sake and because that owner has some good 'uns.
Mick will be along shortly to say about after-timing, but, I'm not writing this stuff looking for kudos or anything. The main point is to show the importance of random and imponderable events in low quality races. They even happen in good races too!

Years ago I was coming from Cheltenham one Gold cup day on the train, bound for Wolverhampton races.
In Birmingham New Street, some bggr pulled the emergency switch, when we were just leaving the platform. So we were stuck half in the tunnel.
A couple of jockeys, including Charlie who won today, were stuck on the train and went tearing up to the driver's cab. To no avail.
.
Like everybody else, they were trapped. After a long delay, we had to go at terrible slow speed the long way round to Stafford , and then catch another train down to Wolver.
I don't think the jockeys made it in time. I just went to the pub ( where I just avoided getting beat up by some nutter.

Now, you can't really expect me to put all that up on a sensible thread, before the race! :)
 
I must try harder mick mick .🙃
I'll have to tell it before it happens. Not easy.

Anyway, I'm toying with the idea of having a reasonable bet on Lomu , tomorrow at Newcastle.
I've taken a few small pecks on the Machine, but the price is too short for me to be comfortable about it. It will have to drift several points overnight for me to feel better.
It owes me a bit, as I've backed it on several losing days out. On the face of it, it stands a good chance on a few numbers that are readily available.
I hope Luke is better; didn't somebody say he had a day off today?
 
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