How best to read form ?
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mick
Sire
Yes i wondered when reading it, nothing wrong with this in principle but perhaps best to make it clear that its a third parties work you are sharing. Just to update my own post on this thread yesterday i have now backed Firenze Rosa .........seduced by the 14/1.
markfinn
Sire
isnt that the point - A pace is always there and just because one does not not run up to usual pace does that make it none race - read so often that the jockeys art is to switch a horse of until required - bit like the cyliclists
Would be interesting to see a comparison of sectional race times times - say between a tight Wolves and a galloping Chelmsford
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mjay
Gelding
Martin Pipe would have been proud of the ride Sean Quinlan gave Red Giant yesterday at Sedgefield - he ran them into the ground from the front and was "Piggottesque" in letting them come back before pushing on again. The trainer had to explain the apparent improvement and claimed it was because of the step up in trip. I suspect the truth is closer to
Bold Gait's assessment in that they were out to make amends for the jockey error that probably cost them victory the previous year and it was trained to the minute for the job.
Bold Gait's assessment in that they were out to make amends for the jockey error that probably cost them victory the previous year and it was trained to the minute for the job.One aspect of trying to understand form is try and second guess what connections are up to and a point in case might be the 3.03 market rasen tomorrow, not for one second do i think LONIMOS BARELIERE has any worthwhile hurdle form but a few things struck me with this horse, why would such a big stable bother to keep it in training ? Then looking at his last run in a bumper at wolves even though a 66/1 chance you could argue he might have won with a more positive ride, so having now gone back and looked at his poor hdl form maybe they were just trying to get the thing handicapped. The wolves run might simply be that he has improved a little but obviously way back in feb, so back to the connections and i see they won this race last year with the same girl on board. Poor race i know but there has been a few bob for him and just maybe there's been a cunning plan.
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markfinn
Sire
Only 4yr old in the race so suppose anything could be under the bonnet and been hidden away all year - not an obvious keeper Sire and Dam no clue combined runners produced 28 runners - currently 2nd in the market - not one for me
Trainer form just about stable - the one trainer that stands out Ben Pauling ridden by the wonderfully named Miss Lilly Pinchin Claiming 5lb - Ill bet she got some stick at school.
that's her in the Pink drive Marble Sands home at Ascot - had to be in pink
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mlmrob
Sire
It is possible the horse was leased by a syndicate for 12 months. They would have not paid a fee for the horse but the horse would have run in their name and they would be responsisble for all its bills. The horse is back with Mark Evans now, running in his studs name, and I daresay itll be sold or up for grabs for another syndicate.
Frank Boyle
Filly
markfinn
Sire
Maybe it is - Although this is a novelty race of sorts so normal rules may not apply but I have always thought Skelton's horses were over bet so did a simple search
sure enough but not as bad as I thought - but a lost worse than N Henderson
One 7lb claimer that has impressed me is LUKE CATTON who is based with R Hannon so will get a good few chance from that yard, recently rode Main Fact to victory for Pipe. He has had just 41 rides and 5 winners so early days but if there is betting on the Apprentice championship i will be having a bit on.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Richard Hannon might throw Luke Catton the occasional bone.
Haven't you ever wondered why 3 of his recent top jockeys Tom Marquand, Hollie Doyle, and Rossa Ryan left the yard, it was down to lack of rides, you only have to look at the winner's stable jockey Sean Levey rode for Hannon this year a measly 35, can you imagine how bad it would have been if they all stayed.
I very much doubt If the total winner's Sean Levey has ridden for Hannon exceeds the number of winners Hollie Doyle has ridden so far this year.
I have always wondered if Richard Hannon's stable jockeys receive food parcels from the Red Cross.
Mike.
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mick
Sire
My only possible today was Samovar Southw 5.15 and attempting to read his form did my nut in. My first attempt thoughts concluded BLA Best Left Alone but i kept going back for another look because there was a case of sorts to be made. I decided to let the price be the straighter and set mine at 10/1. Yesterday there was some 9/1 on offer so i went to bed thinking it might be game on but this morning proved otherwise as he is currently 6/1 2nd Fav.....................So i now hope he continues his long losing run because if not then the only winner at my end will be the fornicating swear box.
I have nothing of interest for Sat so now await the Sun 48 hr Decs because at this stage Barrington looks interesting. What a way to spend your time but at least its seldom boring.
I have nothing of interest for Sat so now await the Sun 48 hr Decs because at this stage Barrington looks interesting. What a way to spend your time but at least its seldom boring.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
I just took a look at this race and Samovar is running off a featherweight today of 8-4 compared to his LTO run of 9-7, he is not going to get a better chance than this to put his head in front.
Speed figures attached for the race.
Mike.
mick
Sire
Hi
TheBluesBrother i had prepared a provisional write up which just for the interest i will post below but Sam is now a swerve for myself.
Fri 11th Southw 5.15 : Samovar @
A 5 fur 0-85 with 14 run. Sam shows top off my ratings @ + 2 but even before looking i sort of wished it where otherwise because i knew that attempting to glean some method in the madness of his profile would be a big ask but here goes.
37 runs over this CD have produced 4 wins so not a positive starting point, but he has won in this 0-85 grade off a 6lb higher mark than the OR 68 he runs off here, and when running off this OR over CD he is 2-2. He has also won and run some good races here during previous Decembers. On Jan 1st this year off the same 3 day return he was bt only a nk in a 0-90.
He is proven in these larger fields and at time of writing the most recent 14 run CD race was won from the same 8 box. Luke Morris is 0-11 on the animal but has ridden plenty of winners for the stable in the past and he will be able to do the light weight 8-4. The best i can do for Dixon is to note that he did produce a winner late last month, and fair dues he has done me some past favors at big prices. He fields three here but i cannot feel any enthusiasm for the other two.
Sams 223 most recent form figs are identical to those shown prior to scoring his first win here in March 2018. Part of me is saying Def BLA and this may prove good advice but i also feel there is a case of sorts to be made for him to gain his fifth CD win and a better than anticipated price might just tempt and enable the wager.
TheBluesBrother i had prepared a provisional write up which just for the interest i will post below but Sam is now a swerve for myself. Fri 11th Southw 5.15 : Samovar @
A 5 fur 0-85 with 14 run. Sam shows top off my ratings @ + 2 but even before looking i sort of wished it where otherwise because i knew that attempting to glean some method in the madness of his profile would be a big ask but here goes.
37 runs over this CD have produced 4 wins so not a positive starting point, but he has won in this 0-85 grade off a 6lb higher mark than the OR 68 he runs off here, and when running off this OR over CD he is 2-2. He has also won and run some good races here during previous Decembers. On Jan 1st this year off the same 3 day return he was bt only a nk in a 0-90.
He is proven in these larger fields and at time of writing the most recent 14 run CD race was won from the same 8 box. Luke Morris is 0-11 on the animal but has ridden plenty of winners for the stable in the past and he will be able to do the light weight 8-4. The best i can do for Dixon is to note that he did produce a winner late last month, and fair dues he has done me some past favors at big prices. He fields three here but i cannot feel any enthusiasm for the other two.
Sams 223 most recent form figs are identical to those shown prior to scoring his first win here in March 2018. Part of me is saying Def BLA and this may prove good advice but i also feel there is a case of sorts to be made for him to gain his fifth CD win and a better than anticipated price might just tempt and enable the wager.
TheBluesBrother I suspect you are makings some good points there mike, to be honest I can't remember and now away from the laptop but didn't the three jockeys you mention do well enough to get noticed while at the stable? It might be that there chances of winning the app champ was diminished by being attached to the yard but again I can't recall.
Good to hear from you By the way.
mick
Sire
I took my rating from his Jan 1st run but while only done a nk he was still beaten. His only win in today's grade from many attempts was in a 4 run contest which is another negative. Having said that today's race looks weak to me but i do not feel his current odds justify the play.