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How best to read form ?

retriever

Gelding
Proform re- list stall draw in light of Nrs - the BHA do not - so draw stats do need caution
And as well as that I've seen races on the AW for example where originally an 8 runner race - Stalls 5 and 6 are non-runners - horses drawn 7 and 8 get moved up to 5 and 6.
Shouldn't be allowed but maybe some publications are reflecting this.....I don't know.
 

markfinn

Sire
And as well as that I've seen races on the AW for example where originally an 8 runner race - Stalls 5 and 6 are non-runners - horses drawn 7 and 8 get moved up to 5 and 6.
Shouldn't be allowed but maybe some publications are reflecting this.....I don't know.
When I asked the BHA about it - they said it was always the practice to move all horses up - if you were cynical - you could say that many NRs are stall draw withdrawal tactical - because not only can it remove a forlorn hope but can also shift others into better berths
 

retriever

Gelding
Do you think two Novice runs for Dudai Welcome is enough to go on to justify favouritism? I see cheekpieces are being fitted for the first time.

I wouldn't give DW too much credit for being in front of Brentford Hope and Casting Vote, who like DW, had previously only contested Novice and Maidens.
I think Dudai Welcome is a poor favourite here and you want a horse with proven Handicap form.

EDIT: Quick V4 HRB run on the race leaves me with Andaleep.
Tricast up yet again !! :cool:

You know, you wouldn't want to rearrange the letters of some horse names now, would you? Certainly not in front of the missus !!
.
 

retriever

Gelding
Why do you think it would be so much better?
Because I tend to use 'number of runners' in a lot of my systems, say, races of 6 - 8 runners, and I like to bet early and forget.
If there are non-runners that suddenly make a runner a qualifier or they take the number of runners lower than the requirement for a race, then the end results for that systems past results are never a 'true picture'.

Also when building a system - using 6 - 8 runners again - if races of 9 or more runners could be 'turned off' and not included by default in that system's past qualifies, it would give a truer picture for that system, as they are now included in the system but would never have been bet.

Using betting software such as Bet Angel for backing horses helps when you drop below the required runners - as you can say no 'bet' - but doesn't help with 'higher than' the number of runners, as you don't know before if a horse may be a potential qualifier or not.
.
 
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ArkRoyal

Administrator
If there are non-runners that suddenly make a runner a qualifier or they take the number of runners lower than the requirement for a race, then the end results for that systems past results are never a 'true picture'.
I can see where you are coming from but I think they are a 'true picture' as the past results used to generate your system in the first place would include races where this exact thing had happened in the past.
 

Boots

Mare
One other way to measure how much the going affects a horse is to compare the BHA Performance Figures with the Going . The BHA will show what the BHA Rating the horse had in the race and the BHA Performance Rating it achieved.
I know that there limited suppliers of information Chesham Chesham and perhaps I didn't express what I meant well enough, I was more referring to the style of presentation and the ease of use which is a very personal view.
 

tacker

Gelding
PACE ?

You can study form all day long but if there's no pace in the race then everything is up for grabs, even a race like the derby might well have been ruined by jockey's riding poor races. It might be my imagination but i don't recall seeing horses proving too difficult to settle properly years ago, Piggott, Breasley, Mercer, eddery etc didn't seem to have these problems but likely that it's my memory failing to remember correctly.
The speed experts on here have helped highlight what actually happened in a race, sectionals continue to surprise along with the overall times that show us that there was little pace to the race or too much , sometimes we get a mixture of both but by then it's too late your money is lost.

Going forward i suspect we have a race today where we might hope for a solid enough pace in that there are a few front runners, i suppose it doesn't guarantee a good gallop but if the 3-00 donny isn't a truly run race then we're buggered.

MARIES DIAMOND, SHINE SO BRIGHT and BREATHTAKING LOOK are most likely to go forward on previous experience, with WICHITA who is again trying this shorter distance also likely to be close enough to the pace, WICHITA might have regressed from his earlier exploits in the gns etc so the 2 horses that might benefit from a strong pace are MOLATHAM and LIMATO.
MOLATHAM won the jersey stakes on a mark of 102 before finishing 5th in france behind PINATUBO which was another good run although both were on softer ground but he has form on quick over c/d when beating WICHITA 1/2 L so plenty in his favour.

I've long been a fan of LIMATO who won this race 5 years ago and was most impressive first time out at newm over 7f, that day he was held up from what looked a strong pace and made the ground up easily to win by over 3l, so i felt everything fell into place for him that day and the logic i'm trying to get across is that the way the race will pan out will be perfect for him.
LIMATO has been rated 122 but now he's 115 , 8yr old and his overall form might be said to be inconsistent at times but because i'm trying to make a point about "pace" i think todays race might fall into his lap, joint fav so nothing clever there but a race full of interest for me.
 

Rodeneal

Yearling
Taking into account the distance of course. You have to be careful with draw stats and bias - always compare like for like.
There will always be a Stall 1 and 2 in a race but never a Stall 12 in an 8 runner race. Obviously obvious but often overlooked.
Check that a low draw bias at a track, for example, is really there. Often it's not as accentuated as it first appears.
I could not agree more. I was simply asking the question.

Personally, I find drawbias.com rather informative.
 

retriever

Gelding
I could not agree more. I was simply asking the question.
Rodeneal Rodeneal I wasn't aiming anything at yourself. I was just pointing out an observation I have re draw bias.
HorseRaceBase has the history of draw stats to use, but I am slowly learning to put draw stats on a secondary level these days, as I don't altogether trust their factual nature.

I see the subject today was.....Pace......don't think T tacker got too far with discussions on that one today.....lol

And I don't know if said race went to plan?

3.00 Donc.png
 

tacker

Gelding
retriever retriever
It's true that my attempt at creating some interest in "pace" as got off to a slow start so thanks for mentioning it.
In one sense it did all work out in that they went a good even pace though MARIES DANCER was a little more restrained all three early pace runners were prominent but finished in last 3 places. LIMATO drifted in the betting and ran accordingly, i thought ONE MASTER a little unlucky but both 3yr olds ran good races.

Overall had the pace been a little stronger or alternatively weaker we might have seen a different result but what we do know i believe is that in many races the pace dictate the result.
 

tacker

Gelding
HORSES FOR COURSES
Simple enough logic that everyone knows about, so many varied tracks that trainers can use to their best interest in some cases to deliderately fool the handicapper. Even a course like sedgefield is track that suits some horses more than others and i for one look for c/d winners or those that have shown decent enough form on the track. Today i have had a little trixie based on that logic.......LOVELY SCHTUFF, KINGRULLAH & MR MULDOON.
 

eeyore

Yearling
hello all here a stats for Sedgefield
Dr Richard Newland has had four runners in the Durham National down the years and remarkably has walked away with three winners in 2014, 2015 and 2017. Just a six-year-old, he’s yet to try a trip this far but he shaped as if it is well worth a try when running over three miles last time out. He is fitted with cheekpieces for the first time now so hope they give the desired effect 7/2
 

mick

Sire
HORSES FOR COURSES
Probably the oldest racing adage and one which continues to be relevant. When i start profiling a horse of interest then any previous CD form is one of the first aspects i am looking for and into. In truth my fav situation is when the animal is not a course winner but has a relevant piece of form from same which can be used to make the case.

As ever we are all looking at the same info and how we interpret - use it will become the straighter. My only possible for Mon is in the first at Windsor Firenze Rosa and she is a sad 0-7 over the CD, but 6 of those runs where on fast ground and all of her wins have been on soft. Interestingly the one run on G-S came in this race two years ago when as a 3yo i think she was used to help make the pace for the stables other runner Flowing Clarets who won backed by myself @ 11/1.

At this stage i remain uncommitted Re backing her tomorrow because there is a northern hot pot Fav to oppose, but my point in mentioning is that apparent poor course form is not always bad form, and conversely multiple previous course wins can negate any market value for the selection. I do wonder if some trainers when planning a touch use there own and or the horse concerned course stats to put us away............i would. :)
 
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eeyore

Yearling
hello mick I agree with you
as for Monday here one
A model of consistency throughout 2020, WATER’S EDGE has thrived since joining George Baker. Since going on the turf in 2020, his form figures read 233121, despite edging up the weights throughout the campaign.
Perhaps more crucially, both those victories have come over today’s course and distance at Windsor
at bet365 11/2 at momemt
 
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