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How best to read form ?

Chesham

Sire
Boots Boots , mick mick

While i might agree the officialc can be less than accurate in fact i tried to allude to that point earlier, the vast majority of times we know enough about the going to make a reasonable judgement ?

The point about "different suppliers".............Well i use ATR in the main and they use the official ratings which is perfect logic to me but i'm sure i would be fine with any of them as long as i can see the archive races.
HRB use the same data suppliers as ATR , including the BHA Ratings. The advantage with HRB is that you can research quickly with numerous and extensive parameters which you can’t with ATR.

One other way to measure how much the going affects a horse is to compare the BHA Performance Figures with the Going . The BHA will show what the BHA Rating the horse had in the race and the BHA Performance Rating it achieved.

Example

Shabaaby runs today Going Good

Check out the BHA performance ratings for Good or GooD To Firm Going

Example

Had a BHA rating = 101 on Good Going and a BHA Performance Rating = 68

43706D3D-7530-4520-9804-923C266C15E0.jpeg
now compare BHA Performance Rating on Good to soft and soft going

Shabaaby has achieved Better Performance Ratings Than the BHA Rting That it Raced Off

DE86B819-E75A-4C0D-B12A-5E1DAB11B6F4.jpegA9F0FC63-9FCF-4C87-B677-8B5201BEA992.jpeg
 

tacker

Gelding
Do you think two Novice runs for Dudai Welcome is enough to go on to justify favouritism? I see cheekpieces are being fitted for the first time.

I wouldn't give DW too much credit for being in front of Brentford Hope and Casting Vote, who like DW, had previously only contested Novice and Maidens.
I think Dudai Welcome is a poor favourite here and you want a horse with proven Handicap form.
Yes i do, but i'm a sucker for these type of horses that are by definition difficult to asses especially now having just the 2 runs, if memory serves me well enough some of the older horses in here have been beaten by similar 3yr olds recently.
To be honest retriever retriever all i've done betting wise today include DW in a heinz.
 

mick

Sire
While not always a fan of the BHA i have to say that the info now available on there web site is excellent as demonstrated by Chesham Chesham above. But lets not forget this forum because something i do which can prove helpful is to put a horse of interest name into the forum search facility and sometimes this will give some useful insights via other members previous posts.
 

markfinn

Sire
HRB use the same data suppliers as ATR , including the BHA Ratings. The advantage with HRB is that you can research quickly with numerous and extensive parameters which you can’t with ATR.

One other way to measure how much the going affects a horse is to compare the BHA Performance Figures with the Going . The BHA will show what the BHA Rating the horse had in the race and the BHA Performance Rating it achieved.

Example

Shabaaby runs today Going Good

Check out the BHA performance ratings for Good or GooD To Firm Going

Example

Had a BHA rating = 101 on Good Going and a BHA Performance Rating = 68


now compare BHA Performance Rating on Good to soft and soft going

Shabaaby has achieved Better Performance Ratings Than the BHA Rting That it Raced Off

There are discrepancies between reports - but equally number users Boots Boots are just as dependant on some one elses thoughts or timings - look at a range and try to get feel for what might ideally suit the horse

1599814395445.png

He looks over priced to me
 

mick

Sire
Best of with that Mark. Its a very strange market WH have just gone 20/1 Danzan which has left me feeling totally bemused. :confused: Either the word has spread that the animal is not off or its a super value bet..............i wish i knew which. !
 

markfinn

Sire
mick mick the none hcp win is the only flaw that I can see - would interesting to see how many have broken their duck in a class 2 race - course lends itself to fair openly run races - so all have a chance and double digit odds have to be attractive to % punters
 
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Best of with that Mark. Its a very strange market WH have just gone 20/1 Danzan which has left me feeling totally bemused. :confused: Either the word has spread that the animal is not off or its a super value bet..............i wish i knew which. !
it's a crazy market Mick.....My ratings have the Mark Prescott 3yo Sunset Breeze top rated at +2 with another 3yo Musicality 2nd top rated,Danzan has the best lto rating though.
 

Rodeneal

Yearling
I am finding this thread fascinating.

In a nutshell, I read the form slightly differently depending on what type of race is being run a stakes or a handicap.

I tend to read the form on Oddschecker, as I can see where I might get the best odds, easily, should I decide to place a bet.
 

mick

Sire
it's a crazy market Mick.....My ratings have the Mark Prescott 3yo Sunset Breeze top rated at +2 with another 3yo Musicality 2nd top rated,Danzan has the best lto rating though.
The majority of my wedge is on @ 8/1 bog so if that 20/1 holds up and the animal obliges its going to be a very sweet earn indeed. At least i appear to have got tomorrows right with my 10/1 Arcibo now down to 7/1 with B365.
 

mick

Sire
Sat 12th Donc 2.25 : Arecibo @ 10/1

The Portland Hcap 22 run. The ante post market offered a best price 12/1 which did not appeal but now we have the final Decs the 10/1 bog from B365 just about enables the bet. An additional reason i felt reluctant to play early was i was hoping DOM would put some different head gear on because since this time last year the animals 11 runs have been with a visor or none. I thought blinkers but he has chosen CPs hopefully same difference.

Arecibo has only run once previously in CPs and they did not work but i think DOM tried the same ploy with the BL in this race last year and the animals close 4th - 22 from what appeared a neg draw on the day was a good performance. He contests this time off a 7lb lower OR and 4lbs less weight from the 14 box which also produced the winner last year with the same 22 run.

He is not winsome with a poor S/r but this included some excellent runs in defeat off higher ORs. Dog and over due day comes to mind. I backed him 2lto and his decent 4th showed off my numbers as an = performance running to his OR 94 so his 1lb reduction and the change of head gear might just do the trick. I feel the lto run was excusable and in the race prior to his most recent win he was bt the same 6 lens. The stable won this race in 2012 with another 5yo.
 

retriever

Gelding
When reading the form for flat racing, does anybody else consider the stall draw?
Taking into account the distance of course. You have to be careful with draw stats and bias - always compare like for like.
There will always be a Stall 1 and 2 in a race but never a Stall 12 in an 8 runner race. Obviously obvious but often overlooked.
Check that a low draw bias at a track, for example, is really there. Often it's not as accentuated as it first appears.
 

markfinn

Sire
mick mick the none hcp win is the only flaw that I can see - would interesting to see how many have broken their duck in a class 2 race - course lends itself to fair openly run races - so all have a chance and double digit odds have to be attractive to % punters
Screen shot deleted
the first screen shot was wrong - I dont think it can be done but would be interesting
 

retriever

Gelding
Off subject - Now there is something I wish HorseRaceBase had - Remove non-runner corruption.
If HRB had the ability to remove races from the System Builder where there were 'non-runners' it would be so much better.
 
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