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    Ark Royal
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    AR

How best to read form ?

Boots

Mare
I still believe that the ground conditions are the single most important factor when analysing form,
Whilst I believe in the sentiment of this statement I do think it is slightly misguided. To explain, even if you have the latest going report all it is is somebody else's opinion, all the backform is somebody else's opinion, what is the truth?, answer is we don't know. I do think that this view actually covers most form reading but if obviously does not stop some of you from doing a good job as regards deciphering it. I'll just put one more thought out there as regards this, how well would you form readers do if you had to use a different supplier. I prefer to stick to the numbers that I produce it just take away any element of doubt.
 

markfinn

Sire
Whilst I believe in the sentiment of this statement I do think it is slightly misguided. To explain, even if you have the latest going report all it is is somebody else's opinion, all the backform is somebody else's opinion, what is the truth?, answer is we don't know. I do think that this view actually covers most form reading but if obviously does not stop some of you from doing a good job as regards deciphering it. I'll just put one more thought out there as regards this, how well would you form readers do if you had to use a different supplier. I prefer to stick to the numbers that I produce it just take away any element of doubt.
Proform have declared and actual going stats and the difference - well different
 

mick

Sire
Whilst I believe in the sentiment of this statement I do think it is slightly misguided. To explain, even if you have the latest going report all it is is somebody else's opinion, all the backform is somebody else's opinion, what is the truth?, answer is we don't know.
I think its fair comment to conclude that the going stick has failed, several times i have seen courses report " No stick reading available, stick is broken " you do not keep a spare. ??? The official going we are often informed that The Clerk of the course is walking the track to determine the going and i think surely this should be done off the judgement of the often far more experienced Groundsmen.

Then we have time based going which often disagrees with the official version and depending on your source can also be in conflict with other time based versions, and so as punters we have to form opinions based on opinions. In a multi million pound industry with Trainers often mentioning the importance of the going you would have hoped that this would be sorted by now. !

I find one of the few remaining edges is when you are able to predict a going change ahead of the market, and fair dues over the years i have obtained some excellent value via this, but attempting same can do your nut in because the many advanced weather forecasts now available on line are often also in conflict with each other. !

One final beef which i have noticed is on the increase N/r self certs (Going). You swear about the R4 but even more after checking the N/r form which clearly evidences that the ground should not be a negative. In some instances you have to question why the Stewards are not looking and asking, perhaps they fear the trainer telling them that all of the official goings shown in the animals back form where actually wrong. :eek:
 
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tacker

Gelding
Boots Boots , mick mick

While i might agree the officialc can be less than accurate in fact i tried to allude to that point earlier, the vast majority of times we know enough about the going to make a reasonable judgement ?

The point about "different suppliers".............Well i use ATR in the main and they use the official ratings which is perfect logic to me but i'm sure i would be fine with any of them as long as i can see the archive races.
 

tacker

Gelding
Collateral Form ?

We hear the term many times but i wonder if we all have the same understanding of what we mean, my thinking is to try the example of a horse running today 4.5 sand DUBAI WELCOME who having raced twice finishing runner up both times to horses that have gone on to finish tailed off last in their next races , this looks really bad but i'm tempted to forgive both by looking at the horses behind DW.

His first race was behind ON GUARD who has i say flopped since but the 3rd, 4th and 5th have since won enhancing the form in my opinion.

His second run was behind MY FRANKEL who flopped last saturday but DW still had BRENTFORD HOPE (carrying 7lb more) 94 btn 1 1/2 L and CASTING VOTE ( also carrying 7lb more) 86 another 8L back in 3rd & 4th.

In truth you can chase collateral form too much or too far but without reference to some of that evidence being taken into account any reading of the form might be viewed as being flimsy.

DUBAI WARRIOR drops to 10f today and from an opening mark of 85 should go close imo.
 

mick

Sire
Collateral Form ?

We hear the term many times but i wonder if we all have the same understanding of what we mean
The basic thinking is when A and B have never met but both have previously run against C then this can be used to judge. The theory is sound but as ever there are frequently additional complications involved.

I see plenty of punters dismissing pounds and lengths which is fair enough, but i am not one because its amazing how often (given simular circumstances) that they do work out, and when you think in terms of big horses with little men on top charging around often muddy fields then perhaps there is no way they should. !
 

retriever

Gelding
Do you think two Novice runs for Dudai Welcome is enough to go on to justify favouritism? I see cheekpieces are being fitted for the first time.

I wouldn't give DW too much credit for being in front of Brentford Hope and Casting Vote, who like DW, had previously only contested Novice and Maidens.
I think Dudai Welcome is a poor favourite here and you want a horse with proven Handicap form.

EDIT: Quick V4 HRB run on the race leaves me with Andaleep.
 
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tacker

Gelding
The basic thinking is when A and B have never met but both have previously run against C then this can be used to judge. The theory is sound but as ever there are frequently additional complications involved.

I see plenty of punters dismissing pounds and lengths which is fair enough, but i am not one because its amazing how often (given simular circumstances) that they do work out, and when you think in terms of big horses with little men on top charging around often muddy fields then perhaps there is no way they should. !
Well there you go mick mick i've been using it in the wrong way.
 
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