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Horses that could be better than looks obvious.

mlmrob

Sire
Jawwaal is by Bahamian Bounty whose 5yo progeny are 0-37 in handicaps worth 30k+.

His record with all his progeny running in 30k races or better reads 7-175

His overall record in handicaps 0-90 or better reads 79-1036 with 5yos 10-206.

There is very slight improvement to those racing in 0-75 to 0-85, 27-2349 with 5yos 37-414.

Jawwaal has had problems at Denton and may be better than his mark but I don't know if those problems have been resolved.
 

Nellsman

Filly
Morning T tacker,
I can't think that Dods is looking to win this race, having said that the horse is more than capable. Looking at Jawwaal's past form, it has never run over 5 furlongs. To me it looks like a run to sharpen the horse up. Last season Jawwaal ran Dod's very good horse Dakota Gold to within half a length (10 lbs at the weights). Jawwaal was a 4 year old. Dakota Gold improved by roughly 10 lbs from 4 to 5. I think that the trainer would expect Jawwaal to improve as a 5 year old. As I said before, the horse is capable, but why get your horse higher in the handicap if you believe that it may be capable of winning a much higher prize?
Having looked at the race, it's not one that I would be getting involved in from a betting point of view.

Good Luck Today.
 

markfinn

Sire
I will have you a £10 charity side-bet ( my bank is holding up well this week :D} markfinn markfinn , he picks up a turf h/cap no lower than C4 grade ?

I would be amazed if he went into claimers, as he put in some solid runs, especially his first run off a winter break last year and I do think there are valid reasons for his last three "poor" runs: draw/draw/ trip.

I will be expecting Nellsman Nellsman to compensate me, in the event of me paying out :)
What is the fortunate Charity ?
 

tacker

Gelding
Morning T tacker,
I can't think that Dods is looking to win this race, having said that the horse is more than capable. Looking at Jawwaal's past form, it has never run over 5 furlongs. To me it looks like a run to sharpen the horse up. Last season Jawwaal ran Dod's very good horse Dakota Gold to within half a length (10 lbs at the weights). Jawwaal was a 4 year old. Dakota Gold improved by roughly 10 lbs from 4 to 5. I think that the trainer would expect Jawwaal to improve as a 5 year old. As I said before, the horse is capable, but why get your horse higher in the handicap if you believe that it may be capable of winning a much higher prize?
Having looked at the race, it's not one that I would be getting involved in from a betting point of view.

Good Luck Today.
What a nelly Nellsman Nellsman , looks like it was backed and won it well enough so frustrating but a nice pick.
well done.
 

Nellsman

Filly
Afternoon guys,
yes he won well and didn't need to improve in this class. A fact I have to admit that I foolishly overlooked. doomster doomster got it right, dropped to a 0-85 Hcp. Well done Doomster. Hopefully he'll go on and improve.
 
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student

Yearling
I try to find posts that I may be able to add value to, and to avoid looking like a lurker, I'll post on the chat stream from now.

Most of my racing research is focused on the horse as an individual. My showjumping daughter dragged us into owning and producing horses over 40 yrs ago. That’s been useful in understanding their behaviour and ability of jockeys. But if I was starting again, too old at 80 now, I’d re-balance the effort to include the people behind the horse. There are breeders, owners, trainers, stable staff, stable handicappers, jockeys and others?

On that angle, I first noticed that my statistical assistant in my first job reading the high society page of Monday’s daily express (1960s no internet, ?); that seemed very odd to me, we were both born in Birkenhead of very limited prospects and circles. Discovered the reason was that he wanted to know when wealthy people were in/out of the country on hols or other delights. His theory being that they would want to be present to see their horses running in the UK.

Years later a neighbour told me that her uncle owned racehorses; Barber-Lomax. He worked abroad but spent his summer holidays in the UK; always had his horses primed to do their best when he was around. Chester was their home track. More importantly, some of the horse's were registered in his sister’s married name with no obvious link to B-L and the ‘golden’ months. When pushed for a tip by security staff at work as I rushed home, I asked for their liverpool echo for next day runners at Chester. Spotted her name against a 2yo deb. Their horses normally had a run before running locally, but I suggested a small ew bet on it. Won 7/1, and they thought I was a genius.

Jumping up to date, a few months ago I had difficulty finding a horse record in Raceform. As Mick has mentioned before, you can be pursuing a line of reasoning when something shoots across from another angle. That was in my mind when spotting a pattern in changes going on between some owners, trainers and horses that appears to be a tell for future improvement in performance . I have about 1000 records left to data clean before doing a major analysis of that file, and it may be a wild goose chase. But if one also takes the anecdotes and points made above into account, there may be a value angle via looking at changes in people connections. I see that Markfinn includes owners in his data sets.

Just some thoughts
 

student

Yearling
I am currently focused on improving the accuracy of my models of trainers/connections gaming their horses in low class 3yo hcps.

I can see that in using a value risk/reward decision, bettors can think in terms of the price making the bet. But I'm thinking that price can also make the race. That the decision to run and race strategy may be infuenced by the likely market odds. In my models I consider 8/1 and above to be longshots depending on the number of runners. So to test my theory about the incentive of connections and added a min price of 8/1 (ISP) to my model and got some very interesting changes in sr and roi. Interestingly, one trainer successfully used the same MO used to get longshots up in 3yo hcps class 5 and 6, in a big hcp at R Ascot. So, maybe my models are more generally applicable than I thought. I suppose money talks wherever. As always, I'm slow on the uptake and used to surprises.

By race strategy, I'm thinking of how the jockey has been told or decides how to race their horse. A top jock recently said that werever the best jock is in the race at any time is the best place to be. Other times it seems a top jock has ridden to beat the biggest danger? In my gaming runs, as well as placed to loose (entry?), I also use paced to loose (how to run the race).
 

mick

Sire
Good morning S student Re your above tells for improved form or an improved run are two different beasts imo. Tbh i have little interest in the former but constantly seek the latter. Once i have a horse of interest off ratings then anything which can add positives to the profile pot is worth seeking and i can appreciate your thinking.

There will always be back ground aspects which some owners who are serious punters attempt to keep hidden from the betting public and just to stir the pot there is also the hidden in plain sight option, as an example current day stable stats are an easy find for us all and connections might use this to put us away and pts on the price...........I would.

Sometimes it works against me but i tend to red flag any easy find. The wisest move for a betting owner would be to have his horses trained at stables who have no overt Rep for liking a punt but another option is to have them appear to be owned by people who do not have rep for being big punters. I feel sure both instances are used by a few to stay below the radar. ..

The option which i think you are investigating is to glean the hidden connections which can still be found via some extra time and effort which the majority of punters are not willing to give and because of this they are well worth having so best of with that.
 

tacker

Gelding
Hi S student , I notice you mention " stable handicappers " while i've always thoiught this a sensible approach for the larger outfits but have no knowledge of anyone having such a occupation. I suspect that trainers, assistants and any other staff that might know their stuff will have an input but maybe a dedicated "expert" in handicapping might be of great value, i would have thought.
 

mick

Sire
In my gaming runs, as well as placed to loose (entry?), I also use paced to loose (how to run the race).
Oh so true for both but Re the latter when the back form evidences the need for a winning tactic why do the stewards not question when the opposite is used.? Perhaps we should be pleased because " Paced to lose " when found gives us the reason to view an apparent poor run in a more positive or at least forgiving way. :)
 

mick

Sire
Hi S student , I notice you mention " stable handicappers " while i've always thoiught this a sensible approach for the larger outfits but have no knowledge of anyone having such a occupation. I suspect that trainers, assistants and any other staff that might know their stuff will have an input but maybe a dedicated "expert" in handicapping might be of great value, i would have thought.
I suspect only a small minority of owners will tell the trainer that they wish to do the entries and work the plan, but providing this is done within the rules of racing then i would imagine this is acceptable and if some of the plans prove successful then this might open the door to become involved with other stable charges in mutually advantageous ways.

I recall long ago my first experience of ownership when the trainer advised us that our animal " should " run well and i asked his views on the opposition and received a disappointingly very limited reply. I do not have the juice for it now but given my time over this is certainly something i would have liked to become involved with.

You hear the pundits crow ( post race ) this 8/1 winner was laid out a year in advance for this big hcap, but that 8/1 pays the same for simular planned for a 0-60 at Wolv.
 
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markfinn

Sire
I try to find posts that I may be able to add value to, and to avoid looking like a lurker, I'll post on the chat stream from now.

Most of my racing research is focused on the horse as an individual. My showjumping daughter dragged us into owning and producing horses over 40 yrs ago. That’s been useful in understanding their behaviour and ability of jockeys. But if I was starting again, too old at 80 now, I’d re-balance the effort to include the people behind the horse. There are breeders, owners, trainers, stable staff, stable handicappers, jockeys and others?

On that angle, I first noticed that my statistical assistant in my first job reading the high society page of Monday’s daily express (1960s no internet, ?); that seemed very odd to me, we were both born in Birkenhead of very limited prospects and circles. Discovered the reason was that he wanted to know when wealthy people were in/out of the country on hols or other delights. His theory being that they would want to be present to see their horses running in the UK.

Years later a neighbour told me that her uncle owned racehorses; Barber-Lomax. He worked abroad but spent his summer holidays in the UK; always had his horses primed to do their best when he was around. Chester was their home track. More importantly, some of the horse's were registered in his sister’s married name with no obvious link to B-L and the ‘golden’ months. When pushed for a tip by security staff at work as I rushed home, I asked for their liverpool echo for next day runners at Chester. Spotted her name against a 2yo deb. Their horses normally had a run before running locally, but I suggested a small ew bet on it. Won 7/1, and they thought I was a genius.

Jumping up to date, a few months ago I had difficulty finding a horse record in Raceform. As Mick has mentioned before, you can be pursuing a line of reasoning when something shoots across from another angle. That was in my mind when spotting a pattern in changes going on between some owners, trainers and horses that appears to be a tell for future improvement in performance . I have about 1000 records left to data clean before doing a major analysis of that file, and it may be a wild goose chase. But if one also takes the anecdotes and points made above into account, there may be a value angle via looking at changes in people connections. I see that Markfinn includes owners in his data sets.

Just some thoughts
When do it properly and spending the time to go deep on a races profile - I do consider all aspects, like to see if a rated older horse of interest has a link to the stable , these are what I term stable pets but even so they do win when all in their favour - also stable web sites detailing horses for sale can be revealing . The info is not always clear is was researching Granite City Doc last week and could not Intially find the trainer Google had it down as Harvey Smiths son - not so as the trainer’s name is not as clear as normal , and then the owner is listed as Corsby which again I could not find any details . Anyway the point more you dig the more you reveal , but we are always slightly in the dark .

Using the market, Obviously lots do - use a quote here “the market is there to inform , but not to instruct “ Warren Buffet
 
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Chesham

Sire
:text-goodpost: ‘S S student

I used to go racing quite a lot (Pre Betfair) and I would often look to,see who were being ferried in by Helicopter and then see which trainer they were in the Parade Ring in. I would then take a closer look at the form of their runner and the Rails Bookmakers to see if if any large sums were being placed by the owners and their friends.

HRB have some data that has connections

8BF06DCF-804E-4DDB-AC52-16531BDA96C1.jpeg99B44B38-AD1F-455A-B8AE-037521FD664B.jpeg0B92D8EC-B901-4899-A71F-C3D29269B1AD.jpeg
 

student

Yearling
Hi Tacker

It's a long time ago that I came across the term. Some bigger stables had staff who would rate their own horses taking account of reports from training and jockeys feedback on races (and sometimes giving comments on opposition that they may race against in future). They would use this data to assess upcoming alternative engagements. Assume they used same scale of OR/Timeform etc. During a holiday in Newmarket (brilliant) a tour guide got us into Michael Bell's stable; he was a new kid on the block at the time, just starting to make a name. Bell was away that day, but I asked one of the staff about a disappointing run of a 2yo filly that I had backed. She had banged her head on stalls as she exited the gate (not made public) and ran accordingly. They wrote that run off and agreed with my potential rating for her. No one used the term but I got the strong impression that a few staff were involved in helping the trainer to assess their horses. Some other trainers mentioned same in racecourse interviews, but later, the use of Timeform was mentioned/criticised mostly, for those squiggles?.

I dreamt of doing that job, until I was asked to advise an owner about which race to run his horse in. I had been recruited by a new company providing info to breeders, owners, trainers and jockey's agents on latest data on entries and spare rides etc. I eventually gave in to their request to provide tips for a new betting page on their site (forerunner of internet, ceefax??). Phone goes at 10pm from their boss. Wealthy owner mate had asked him to see what 'your tipster' thinks about which of 2 races they should run in. One race is tomorrow and alternative is in 3 days time. I think it was big Goodwood meeting. Races I didn't work. Boss pleaded with me to have a go to keep the new/client owner onside. Three hours later I send a message; something like, horse has 3 to beat in first race and 2 to beat in second race. Next morning RP has horse running in first race. I think what a fat lot of use that was. It wins. I'm sure it will not run in second race with little recovery time between. It runs. It wins. Horse turned out to be about a stone better than anyone else, except connections?, thought. What do I know?

Apologies if I've mentioned this before. Boss of racing info company dines me out to persuade me to provide tips. He askes how can I possibly know something more than others in the game, when I work alone in my study in north wales with a little PC and the form book to go no, and keep down a full time day job lecturing. I mention an under rated trainer; McMahon (snr). Why do you think that. Because he has the gift of preparing horses to place at big odds time after time. This boss stops eating. How did you find that out. I'm a statistician and its my job to find significant patterns in data. Boss says that he met McMahon Snr and signed him up for their service the day before. Boss had asked McMahon if he bets and he points to a table with bookies statements of tote place only winning bets. So now the boss is desperate to sign me up as their tipster. If only I had kept my mouth shut (which you are probably thinking if you have read this far). Daily tipping lasted a flat turf season; profits at ISP, but they failed to pay me the agreed share of hits to the new tipping page due to technical problems in their system. So I declined an invite to provide tips for following flat season. Phew. I feel tired just thinking back over that experience.

So, I'm not sure just how enjoyable that stable job would be.
 
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