• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Horses New To Trainer

pawras

Gelding
I'm sure many of you have looked at this angle before and there's various variations etc that you can apply, but I ran a report for data 2000-2017 to show me the £1 LSP at ISP for horses getting their first run at a new yard, and here are some of the more likely looking trainers. I haven't checked anything so apols if some of them are no longer training.

horses new to trainer.jpg
 
Last edited:

ARAZI91

Gelding
I'm sure many of you have looked at this angle before and there's various variations etc that you can apply, but I ran a report for data 2000-2017 to show me the £1 LSP at ISP for horses getting their first run at a new yard, and here are some of the more likely looking trainers. I haven't checked anything so apols if some of them are no longer training.

View attachment 54602
pawras pawras - i track this - and also the new recruits next 10 runs thereafter - there are very interesting patterns - some trainers like to run them 4 or 5 times and then bang the strike rate improves dramatically for the next 3 or 4 runs - ill post up some examples when i get some time.
On the other hand some trainers like to strike early - first couple of races.
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
pawras pawras - Marco Botti likes to hit them first time
Botti.PNG
same with David Bridgewater
Bridgewater.PNG
and Cumani
Cumani.PNG

James Ewart is good FT and then has another purple patch after 5 runs
James Ewart.PNG

Chris Grant likes to get a few runs into them and seems to target the 5th runback
Grant.PNG
similar with R Ford
Ford.PNG

and one of my favourites and has done me a few good turns Johnny Farrelly
picks up after two runs and is solid on 3-5
Farelly.PNG

plenty more and is an area worth exploring - the pundits / press seem to concentrate just on the First Run
Same with headgear , equipment , layoffs etc
 

pawras

Gelding
pawras pawras - Marco Botti likes to hit them first time
View attachment 54789
same with David Bridgewater
View attachment 54790
and Cumani
View attachment 54791

James Ewart is good FT and then has another purple patch after 5 runs
View attachment 54792

Chris Grant likes to get a few runs into them and seems to target the 5th runback
View attachment 54793
similar with R Ford
View attachment 54794

and one of my favourites and has done me a few good turns Johnny Farrelly
picks up after two runs and is solid on 3-5
View attachment 54796

plenty more and is an area worth exploring - the pundits / press seem to concentrate just on the First Run
Same with headgear , equipment , layoffs etc

When tracking these for the next x runs , if a win is achieved do you continue tracking?
 
What about Jim Best he trained Slowfoot to win fist time out after 400+ days break now moved to Suzi Best runs after 94 days off runs tonight 2010 Kempton
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
When tracking these for the next x runs , if a win is achieved do you continue tracking?
pawras pawras - yes - looking for a specific area in which they are better like the examples put up - only track 10 runs though - some patterns show progression and you can see the strike rate go up with each run - although it is the same group of horses running back , getting fitter , getting well handicapped etc.
Look at Stuart Williams - strike rate shoots up at the seventh run back - by this time he has them well handicapped , got to the bottom of any problem ones etc - sure he has winners at the other stages but as a group , this is where he does the damage - look at the place strike rate shoot up on the sixth run - so on the seventh he is running horses that are rounding into form
williams.PNG
once they have hit this form - he can sustain it through the next few runs

M mike 68
Jim Best
has decent enough figures first and second run although no real particular pattern
he is also factored in the market - the public "expect" his horses
Best.PNG
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
Very interesting, I wonder just how many trainers patterns like this, would be interesting to find out.
The other side of this is tracking stats of the "leaving" stable
For example would you buy a horse off this man ?
barron.PNG

but i would consider this guy if i was looking for one to strike quite early
Crawford.PNG
 

mick

Sire
Re the above posts some good thoughts being shared.Although i generally do not let it prevent or create a bet i do have "off the top of my head" positive and negative thoughts about some trainers.In both cases often i would not be able to explain why,just a collective judgement based on "knowing" them from afar over many years.

Long term record keeping is imo one of the best edges a punter can give themselves,not only the bottom line of net profit after expenses but also providing an over view of strengths and needs.In this respect i do practice what i preach and have mine for the past 22yrs.The area where i am lacking is that all are recorded via long hand and so investigating any common aspect becomes a time consuming chore.
.
I would pay plenty to have the above fully automated and the joy (well perhaps) of one click investigation.In this respect i would be most interested to be able to evidence how my bets on the runners from the stables i have negative thoughts about have fared from a profitability aspect in comparison to those i think i like and or those i have neutral opinion of...................Although another thought is perhaps better not to know.!
 

pawras

Gelding
@ ARAZI91 ARAZI91 I'm having a look at this again but how do you view the scenario where a horse arrives at yard A and does X runs there, then goes to one or more other yards before returning to yard A again?
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
pawras pawras Hi mate ,yep a good point , obviously in the scale of the sample , the number in that situation i'm sure is very small against the population ,but the way i set it up in HRB catches only the move to the new yard , then 1st run , then 2nd , 3rd and so on. If the horse moves to another yard he would show up there in the new trainers stats as well, starting with the move , then 1st run , 2nd run etc. It would be 2 different situations - 2 sets of stats . But then a return to the first trainer i don't think i would catch that in HRB , due to it's limitations as in the database the horse would have previous runs for that trainer and could possibly corrupt the data slightly eg- if he had 5 runs the first time then left, he would be showing up again when back as a sixth run , where as technically it should still be classed as a "new" move. To catch these i would have to check every individual run and that would be impossible.
Once a pattern is established (see attached eg A Balding) , i usually drill down deeper with that trainer and look at other factors , a certain type , age , racetype and from doing that i have to say that a return back to a previous trainer does happen but is quite rare in the scale of things.

Balding.PNG
In this case i would be looking extremely closely at Baldings "new recruits" on their 3rd start till 5th - i would like to see some recency with this pattern , then i would profile his runners within that range - hcaps , age , sex , career runs etc etc.
There are trainers who have clear patterns - Cumani is very good on the first run (34%) , although did not have any new recruits last season , so is Johnstone & Varian but once again had few runners last season. Tim Vaughan was brilliant first time with new recruits (25%) up to 2012 but since then has been dreadful , so you do have to dig a bit deeper - others like to run them to fitness , and it usually coincides with a drop in ratings ,then 5th or 6th run their ready to compete. I do the same with horses coming off layoffs and with headgear and having the stats just provides some extra insight when looking at the form.
 
Last edited:

pawras

Gelding
ARAZI91 ARAZI91 the bit I'm looking at the moment is to correctly deal with situations where a horse goes to trainer A does say 4 runs, goes to trainer B does 2 runs then back to trainer A, i.e. the stints at trainer A are not merged together with the option to ignore them.
 
Last edited:

pawras

Gelding
ARAZI91 ARAZI91 Anyway I resolved the potential issues described above, which took a bit more thought than I anticipated, and I now have a report similar to yours covering all trainers and runners coming to their yards from the start of 2000 to nowish. So I picked out some of the trainers you mentioned above and I don't always get quite the same picture so I'll have to do some further investigation and testing.

1518045875071.png
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
pawras pawras - nice work !! - Remember , you have another 8 years of data in there , but the trends are very similar IMO , you can see Baldings improve between runs 3 & 5 , Jim Best starts off well , then has a dip , then the SR improves again , and Stuart Williams pattern picks up at R7. I also separate by code NH , Flat Turf & AW and keep an all codes sheet as well.

Edit - pawras pawras
I have went back and added another 5 years to my data and ran it fresh so it takes into account all UK Runs (Every Code) since 2003
That's when HRB database in the systembuilder starts
Up To 06/02/2018
Have picked 4 Random trainers to compare - you should have more Qualifiers (as per 3 extra seasons) but hopefully the trends and SR might be similar
Scott.PNG
Scudamore.PNG
Shaw.PNG
Skelton.PNG
 
Last edited:

pawras

Gelding
Hmm I wonder how often horses move to a different trainer for a few runs then go back to the first one?
R1 T1
R2 T1
R3 T1
R1 T2
R2 T2
R1 T1
R2 T1
R3 T1
R4 T1
R5 T1
R1 T3
R2 T3

Because if not dealt with carefully and depending on how the data is aggregated , wins for the runner at T1 at it's second stint there could be counted as a part of the first stint and as well as the second stint due to it's brief stint at T2.

I made my report ensure that in the example as above it's two stints at T1 would be treated completely separately. e.g. any wins at R1 for it's second stint at T1 is always classed as R1 and not also or instead as R4 as continuation of it's first stint at T1.
 
Last edited:
Top