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Horseracing / Betting - Youtube videos

Old again but these might be interesting regarding the thought process HT goes through with Horses to Follow
and this one

there are a few more of these on YT
 
mick said:
ARAZI91 ARAZI91 I feel you have started what has the makings of a very interesting thread.I know little of HT but did read that he uses both RI and what was CTF as aides to his work.

The first question in the first video is imo a worthy and interesting one.There will always be the odd exception but in general i would not feel positive about a horse carrying a 7lb penalty so it is not often a problem i face,but i do take a keen interest in apprentice jockeys.The situation i look for is when the claim can be viewed as enhancing not making the chance.

But here is just one of several thoughts i have Re 7lb claimers.The Lad or Lass can keep this claim for the first 20 winners,so given this fact would your preference be to use, or back one who has to date ridden two winners or eighteen.? :)
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mick mick - do you view penalty's in general a negative?
 
ARAZI91 said:
mick mick - do you view penalty's in general a negative?
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No it depends on size and circumstance.I like to identify a plan because if you can then it means you may be "as one" with the trainer.If i was planning back to back wins then the first thing i would be looking at is the penalty sizes and small type for the suitable follow up races.As punters we can look at the animals entries and perhaps glean this.?

The aspect i do not like Re a lto win penalty or not is that all eyes will be drawn to that 1 fig and this can take points off the price.? I think there are ways to negate this and for connections to have there cake and eat it via a follow up win at a value price and they are all to do with the past not present occurrences but i do not see it happening very often.
 
last couple of the old Hugh Taylor ATR ones - James Willoughby is on these as well

Discussion on Bias and Strategy in Punting
Part One

Part Two
 
ARAZI91 ARAZI91 i have just played your most recent above (part 1) i seldom watch this type of thing (i wonder if its a bit like sex, better to be doing it rather than listening to others talking about doing it) ? i am also wondering if this is advantageous because how can i be put away by the pundits bias when i remain in blissful ignorance of them in the first place.! The additional perhaps harsh but still bottom line thought being ,if said pundits are such good judges why do they need the second job.?

I have not watched TV racing for years,perhaps for the wrong reason but i found Bookmaker Reps being allowed soft interviews to be winding me up to the extent that i concluded better just swerve the bloody lot and spend the time on additional form book reading.Having said this i did feel the above video was worth the watch ,as it contains plenty of basic good sense.

It was only a few years ago that i was made aware of a phrase which suits ,indeed this came about when another backer accused me of same. "Contrarian thinking " a little poncy but i like because "going my own way" was something i had been doing for years.These days there is so much info aval on line that truly original "form thoughts" are prob a hard find,but they do not need to be original to prove worthwhile because minority will still do it.

To go against the majority view just for the sake of it would prove disastrous,you need to glean proper racing reason to support your thoughts and fully understand why they are working and might continue to.I find this takes much effort for often small "finds" ,but the small when applied to your MO can then equate to a far bigger reward as part of.Every backer has the option to give this effort yet it appears to myself that few are prepared to.

Returning to the video my over view is that what those guys are really saying is that before you can beat the Bookmakers, you first need to learn how to beat yourself.If i am correct then this is the real gem being offered.
 
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Hi mick mick - first off i should have put a disclaimer :)- all views on these videos are entirely the property of the talking heads in them , not mine. i do not claim ownership and have simply upped the links for members to view in one convenient place. Having said that , the two videos you are referring to here i feel certainly contain a few seeds of enlightenment if only for viewers as an introduction and to go away and explore the subject matter further. The biases discussed apply in any decision making environment not just in punting and more so when their is cold hard cash at risk. The two people doing most of the talking are not short of an opinion or two yes , but feel can be separated from your Matt Chapmans & Derek Thompsons and the other Bookie affilaited types. Hugh has had a long running very profitable and proofed tipping service free of charge on ATR / twitter and i suppose is a pin-up boy for those who revere the value approach. The other is a maths eccentric racing nut who does not come across very well in front of the cameras , but has many years experience with the Racing Post , Timeform and applies a statistical approach to finding answers. His opinion and savvy have recently been poached by trainer Mark Johnston (who does not seem to suffer fools gladly) where he is very much involved in spotting , timing & buying raw 2 year olds for the stables partnerships and throws his hat in on race placement , handicapping & jockeyship etc to the stable when required. They are not professional punters and i don't think have ever claimed to be. I have seen interviews with seemingly professional punters and listened and not gained very much insight. In fact the old Harry Findlay doc i put up could be taken as a spoof. But they usually don't give much away as you would expect. But these two have nothing to lose here in this context and i believe their intentions to be genuine. An introductory 18 mins on the subject of bias within making decisions and betting. Nothing more , nothing less.
Whether we are aware of these biases in our thinking or not does not mean they do not exist , and as can be shown by the 97% figure banded about of punters who struggle year in , year out , they certainly contribute a major part to that figure. The videos themselves are now quite old - probably from around 2010-2012 and they only touch on the subject matter here. Much has been done in this type of work - which is basically not just looking at the decisions , but the process of making them. I could say that most people could not give a Flying Feck about this kind of stuff , and are probably not even aware of them , but rather than dumb-down the UK punting scene (and this forum) I positively hope not and think there should be plenty more of this type of discussion in relation to racing and betting. Sincerely if one person goes away and starts to look into the content a bit deeper (with an unbiased view:)) then job done imo , in relation to the thread. They will have much to learn , not only about the nature of betting , but as you have cited about themselves as well.
 
ARAZI91 said:
markfinn markfinn - your man Barry Meadow podcast - show smalltalk to start with then interview with BM from around the 9 min 40 mark
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Great thanks I heard that years ago and was trying to find a way of downloading it but never achieved it - I am guessing that a lot of traders work on the basis of these ideas - if its value back it no matter what your opinion is - It's something I try to do down to about 4 of my top ratings if all are value stop 1st none value - ie dont you do not want o back against your favs - we had a member here last year @elvisistheking - I believe this is what he did only he backed all value horses in the field regardless of rating -

has any one had a had a go at value betting in this manner.
 
markfinn said:
Great thanks I heard that years ago and was trying to find a way of downloading it but never achieved it - I am guessing that a lot of traders work on the basis of these ideas - if its value back it no matter what your opinion is - It's something I try to do down to about 4 of my top ratings if all are value stop 1st none value - ie dont you do not want o back against your favs - we had a member here last year @elvisistheking - I believe this is what he did only he backed all value horses in the field regardless of rating -

has any one had a had a go at value betting in this manner.
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ill download it for you as an mp3 and send you a link Mark
 
markfinn said:
Great thanks I heard that years ago and was trying to find a way of downloading it but never achieved it - I am guessing that a lot of traders work on the basis of these ideas - if its value back it no matter what your opinion is - It's something I try to do down to about 4 of my top ratings if all are value stop 1st none value - ie dont you do not want o back against your favs - we had a member here last year @elvisistheking - I believe this is what he did only he backed all value horses in the field regardless of rating -

has any one had a had a go at value betting in this manner.
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I don't see a problem with this way , IF your ratings , assessments are good enough and are realistic in comparison to the market.
Most now build in a theoretical margin (say 15- 20%) and then try to obtain/beat those odds rather than work to the old 100% book.
 
The Racing Post have a series of articles up and a few short videos to go with them
They are what they are.
I have pdf'd the articles

Paddock Watching

article below
and video

Handicapping & rating races

article below
and video

Pedigree Knowledge

article below
and video


Regarding the pedigree video and breaking in yearlings
This Godolphin video is much better i think
 

Attachments

  • Top tips for finding a winner through a visit to the paddock _ Horse Racing News _ Racing Post.pdf
    537.1 KB · Views: 2
  • From nought to 180 – your guide to handicapping and rating a race _ Horse Racing News _ Raci...pdf
    364.7 KB · Views: 5
  • How to use pedigree knowledge when it comes to punting _ Horse Racing News _ Racing Post.pdf
    391.1 KB · Views: 2
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