HorseRaceBase
- Thread starter retriever
- Start date
retriever
Stallion
That's not the first time you have said that to me!!
retriever
Stallion
Systems (or HRB for that matter) are just tools......they do the legwork.
With regards to 'Shrewd trainers' (I'll try to define my thoughts on that later - as I have to go out now) but basically I am trying to capture the times when a trainer has those 10/1+ winners in handicap races where he hasn't been running the horses true to form, or bad luck in running etc. but you know the horse has the ability to win that race based on passed form.
Just a game of averages really. If you can hit a 15% s/r backing 8/1+ horses you are well on your way.... ps. I use Betfair now as I once had 15+ online accounts (but now only 3 left that will give BOG or not restricted).
With regards to 'Shrewd trainers' (I'll try to define my thoughts on that later - as I have to go out now) but basically I am trying to capture the times when a trainer has those 10/1+ winners in handicap races where he hasn't been running the horses true to form, or bad luck in running etc. but you know the horse has the ability to win that race based on passed form.
Just a game of averages really. If you can hit a 15% s/r backing 8/1+ horses you are well on your way.... ps. I use Betfair now as I once had 15+ online accounts (but now only 3 left that will give BOG or not restricted).
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retriever
Stallion
Hi - I'm back! - boy, that was some dog walk 
mick I have tried to come up with a sophisticated answer to 'shrewd trainers' but I can't.....
In my head I generally categorise Trainers into 3 groups...
One, the top class trainer with many horses in training running after the prize money, breeding rights, etc..
Three, the 'hobbyist' and horse loving trainers (owners) with small set-ups and few horses...
But in the middle at Two we have the have the stables who take horse racing seriously but are not up there with the best either through 'not wanting to be' or 'not having the means to be'. Therefore, in order to survive, betting or 'touches' play a big part in their game.
A bit loose I know, but it's a theory I put to the test with HRB to see if I could identify any trends with any of the trainers.
This is what I came up with - which I named 'Shrewd trainers'
The percentage Win% has dropped somewhat, either due to being early in the flat season or my 'over-fitting'.
I suspect the later as 15% s/r is what I would expect at these odds.
I feel fairly confident I may be 'on the right track' though having had this 'amazing' result recently...
3 bets in a 13 runner Handicap at Muss. coming home 1st, 2nd and 3rd...…..Tricast paying £1800......and no, I never did.....don't have the bank to sustain that kind of betting.
How do you feel about systems now
mick ?
I am going to put this system to bed for the rest of the season and not change it.
At the end of the flat season I will see if it has held water and I will be more confident for next year.
I have an idea for a 'laying' system of sorts which I will start in the Tips section shortly.
I recently became self-employed and my business takes up most of my time but I am going to do it just so I force myself into posting on here and getting back into horse racing, which has been an 'on / off' affair throughout my life.
Sun's out - may go for another walk - woof...
mick I have tried to come up with a sophisticated answer to 'shrewd trainers' but I can't.....In my head I generally categorise Trainers into 3 groups...
One, the top class trainer with many horses in training running after the prize money, breeding rights, etc..
Three, the 'hobbyist' and horse loving trainers (owners) with small set-ups and few horses...
But in the middle at Two we have the have the stables who take horse racing seriously but are not up there with the best either through 'not wanting to be' or 'not having the means to be'. Therefore, in order to survive, betting or 'touches' play a big part in their game.
A bit loose I know, but it's a theory I put to the test with HRB to see if I could identify any trends with any of the trainers.
This is what I came up with - which I named 'Shrewd trainers'
The percentage Win% has dropped somewhat, either due to being early in the flat season or my 'over-fitting'.
I suspect the later as 15% s/r is what I would expect at these odds.
I feel fairly confident I may be 'on the right track' though having had this 'amazing' result recently...
3 bets in a 13 runner Handicap at Muss. coming home 1st, 2nd and 3rd...…..Tricast paying £1800......and no, I never did.....don't have the bank to sustain that kind of betting.
How do you feel about systems now
mick ? I am going to put this system to bed for the rest of the season and not change it.
At the end of the flat season I will see if it has held water and I will be more confident for next year.
I have an idea for a 'laying' system of sorts which I will start in the Tips section shortly.
I recently became self-employed and my business takes up most of my time but I am going to do it just so I force myself into posting on here and getting back into horse racing, which has been an 'on / off' affair throughout my life.
Sun's out - may go for another walk - woof...
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mick
Sire
Hi
retriever all interesting thoughts Re your those who do or Don't and those who need to its always hard to evidence. My thoughts are that some trainers having progressed to the point whereby they no longer need to bet will still do so. Some who have not reached this point become by choice overt betting stables actually using selected press groupies to increase there Rep in this respect because this does attract a specific type of owner. Most years some of these end up handing in the licence because of "cash flow problems".
What i suspect is that the few who do really well we will never know of because they do everything possible to stay well below the radar and this is a shrewd MO. You ask me what i think of systems now , my answer is show me one which can be specific in identifying the above and my answer will be great well done and can i have a copy. Until then i will continue attempting to answer the question the hard way.
I do wish you all the very best with your system and look forward to reading your updates Re its progress.
retriever all interesting thoughts Re your those who do or Don't and those who need to its always hard to evidence. My thoughts are that some trainers having progressed to the point whereby they no longer need to bet will still do so. Some who have not reached this point become by choice overt betting stables actually using selected press groupies to increase there Rep in this respect because this does attract a specific type of owner. Most years some of these end up handing in the licence because of "cash flow problems".What i suspect is that the few who do really well we will never know of because they do everything possible to stay well below the radar and this is a shrewd MO. You ask me what i think of systems now , my answer is show me one which can be specific in identifying the above and my answer will be great well done and can i have a copy. Until then i will continue attempting to answer the question the hard way.
I do wish you all the very best with your system and look forward to reading your updates Re its progress.