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Hong Kong Speed Figures

Card and results.

A very fast first race. The first race very fast, with the winner Family Fortune becoming a course and distance specialist with 3 wins from 5 at the trip. O Outlander and myself have often wondered about the low level class 5 first races at the Valley which sometimes produce times that doin't match with anything else on the card. Usually they are over the longer trips rather than the 1650 here. Compared to the horse's previous efforts over the trip this was nearly a second quicker over the first 800m, in a similar position in the race as well. The time is 0.33 seconds quicker than the ending class 3 race and over a second quicker than the class 4 race over the trip. My speed figures if left with the others for the meeting give it a class 3 rating and well above anything else achieved. The horses finish close at the end so no reason to suspect sudden improvement. An anomaly of time ratings, or a perfect run sectional wise for the race.
 

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Ratings bit like a broken clock atm , get it right once in while and satisfying if it's one you bet also, but overall not sure they are consistent enough to have confidence.
Can't improve raw rating they are as accurate as i can get them, so it's judging what rating the horse is going to reproduce etc
Been messing about with raw ratings to create Early and Late Pace ratings and using percentiles, think they are improved, noticed if i add them together they were a better guide than my existing ratings so tried to incorporate trial form in also and see how it compares with Today rating.
Aware too much going on , too many ratings, too confusing , possibly counterproductive just trying to establish which if any ratings i can have confidence in, this alternative rating is on the sheet and called NEW. Only been able to check last 2 meetings but performed with some correlation to actual results that would give confidence, we will see going forward. The option would be if this proved a better way to adjust ratings could use then for all types of ratings.
So i will be comparing the NEW to the Today till end of season and see if they look any more reliable.
I thought ratings were bang average on Wednesday but lucky enough to have Forerunner, other bets not close.
Been looking at this Speed Pro on HKJC website so i guess comparing with something like that will be useful to see if my ratings are any good as a whole.
Just can't get on a run atm, back a nice winner interspersed with a few docile bets, no consistency.

Ratings sheet attached
Mike
 

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The Hare said:
Card and results.

A very fast first race. The first race very fast, with the winner Family Fortune becoming a course and distance specialist with 3 wins from 5 at the trip. O Outlander and myself have often wondered about the low level class 5 first races at the Valley which sometimes produce times that doin't match with anything else on the card. Usually they are over the longer trips rather than the 1650 here. Compared to the horse's previous efforts over the trip this was nearly a second quicker over the first 800m, in a similar position in the race as well. The time is 0.33 seconds quicker than the ending class 3 race and over a second quicker than the class 4 race over the trip. My speed figures if left with the others for the meeting give it a class 3 rating and well above anything else achieved. The horses finish close at the end so no reason to suspect sudden improvement. An anomaly of time ratings, or a perfect run sectional wise for the race.
Click to expand...
This happens often at Happy Valley especially , the first race usually a class 5 they run a time that makes everything else on the card look slow v expectation, unsatisfactory. Last example was Nebraskan , he won class 4 next time, but there are mixed results with this scenario. Like you say you can’t have 4 or 5 exposed class 5 horses put up relatively speaking the best times of the whole evening, the ground must be quicker for the first race, but why is this the case so often ?
Old class 5 performers like Setanta and Wah May Wai Wai are able to get beat over 2 lengths in the same time as upwardly mobile Without Compare wins the class 3 race on the card, Setanta even carried more weight. This can’t be explained away with pace alone, the ground has to have changed significantly.
The horse that finished 11th in the class 5 tailed off ran faster than Take Action who won the class 4 three races later, Take Action came from last and is a noted finisher , how has he come from last to win in a race slower than the horse finishing 11th in the class 5 with less weight.
It’s not like they went brutally fast in the first race the 14 rated The Way We Win rated just about the worst horse in HK just failed to make all.
None of this makes sense to me.
 
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The track is rolled between races 5 and 6, which often changes how the track plays. I haven't looked over the meeting yet but at least for races 6-9 the track is going to be a bit different to race 1.
 
R3: Sky Deep has trialled very well and -2lb bodyweight over last win, might be ready 1st up for Fownes+Moreira? Saw what's his name, Mr Desira get well-backed the other week with this combo off a similar setup (multiple trials). Also many other such cases.

In the same race, Master Payment (who I rated best) has dropped 22lb from his last start, which to me is quite concerning for a young horse only going 3rd start. The trainer isn't exactly the best... some concern there. But I try not to let body weight impact my decisions too much... but that is significant and not a trainer I have confidence in. That said, it's possible he's just completely screwed down now and going to absolutely dominate. Will have to see the parade.

Feel like it's either Sky Deep, Master Payment, Better and Better, or Hyannis Star this race.

R1 I was thinking Firefoot looks like a lock, and probably should be winning, but when double checking over things I really didn't hate Special Hedge, Viva Taste, and General Smart. Hoping can get huge prices and then save on Firefoot. That said there's another 4 or so chances, not really sure what to do with Happydearhappydear too, loves the 1800AW but not sure he's ready to win.

In the other AW race (R5) Ariel was quite good last time trailing Yoda, fastest L200 probably had more to give, even before looking at sectionals I felt like Bentley didn't get him going before he finally ramped up at the end. With the 4.5kg claim and wide draw straight to sit outside lead, meets Yoda significantly better in weight. It's just whether she goes too fast up front.
Not sure what to do with Chill Kaka as he hasn't had very good rides recently. Loves AW (& getting down to a good rating) but first time 1800.

Anyway some early thoughts.
 
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Outlander said:
This happens often at Happy Valley especially , the first race usually a class 5 they run a time that makes everything else on the card look slow v expectation, unsatisfactory. Last example was Nebraskan , he won class 4 next time, but there are mixed results with this scenario. Like you say you can’t have 4 or 5 exposed class 5 horses put up relatively speaking the best times of the whole evening, the ground must be quicker for the first race, but why is this the case so often ?
Old class 5 performers like Setanta and Wah May Wai Wai are able to get beat over 2 lengths in the same time as upwardly mobile Without Compare wins the class 3 race on the card, Setanta even carried more weight. This can’t be explained away with pace alone, the ground has to have changed significantly.
The horse that finished 11th in the class 5 tailed off ran faster than Take Action who won the class 4 three races later, Take Action came from last and is a noted finisher , how has he come from last to win in a race slower than the horse finishing 11th in the class 5 with less weight.
It’s not like they went brutally fast in the first race the 14 rated The Way We Win rated just about the worst horse in HK just failed to make all.
None of this makes sense to me.
Click to expand...
been busy on another project, but my first prelim for that HV meeting exp to act 1780713636757.png
 
Outlander said:
So race 1 looks anomalous, must be a factor in HV turf that it rides slower after the surface has been raced on , it happens to often to be a coincidence.
Click to expand...
That race on my pace distortion figures, that looks at the ratios of all the sectionals for all of the horses compared to the expected ratios, that race was a standalone, it had a very high distortion meaning they went very fast thru those early sectionals considering what their ratios are normally
 
woof43 said:
That race on my pace distortion figures, that looks at the ratios of all the sectionals for all of the horses compared to the expected ratios, that race was a standalone, it had a very high distortion meaning they went very fast thru those early sectionals considering what their ratios are normally
Click to expand...
Thanks W woof43
would you expect the HKR 14 rated The Way We Win to be able to set such an early pace and still run a final time faster than any other horse on the card v expectation, and 0.28 secs faster than in real terms than the now 80 rated Without Compare, and 1.2 sec faster than the now 54 rated Take Action who found enough pace on to come from near last to first In r4.
It is races like this than are difficult understand logically unless there are a huge shift in ground conditions ?
 
Outlander said:
Thanks W woof43
would you expect the HKR 14 rated The Way We Win to be able to set such an early pace and still run a final time faster than any other horse on the card v expectation, and 0.28 secs faster than in real terms than the now 80 rated Without Compare, and 1.2 sec faster than the now 54 rated Take Action who found enough pace on to come from near last to first In r4.
It is races like this than are difficult understand logically unless there are a huge shift in ground conditions ?
Click to expand...
working in raw figures i guess it is hard to comprehend, my adjusted figures are set out below, I'm always working in adjusted times, the runs below its last start are the adjusted times which get fed into my algorithms. the old saying you have to run fast to run fast, only the 3rd and the 4th race for mine ran better then neutral early sectionals, the last race they just went slow early for what was expected in fact just looking they ran slow thru every sectional till 3rd an then were a touch slower than neutral and then it was a real sprint home. R4 I had them fast early, neutral s2 , big slowdown s3, a sprint home s4. I did a visual check of those first few races, the first always appears to have a better track, then the 2nd , 2nd is better then the 3rd, it disappears, can't really see any other pattern past those races without running some code. 1781005756785.png
 
woof43 said:
working in raw figures i guess it is hard to comprehend, my adjusted figures are set out below, I'm always working in adjusted times, the runs below its last start are the adjusted times which get fed into my algorithms. the old saying you have to run fast to run fast, only the 3rd and the 4th race for mine ran better then neutral early sectionals, the last race they just went slow early for what was expected in fact just looking they ran slow thru every sectional till 3rd an then were a touch slower than neutral and then it was a real sprint home. R4 I had them fast early, neutral s2 , big slowdown s3, a sprint home s4. I did a visual check of those first few races, the first always appears to have a better track, then the 2nd , 2nd is better then the 3rd, it disappears, can't really see any other pattern past those races without running some code. View attachment 168132
Click to expand...
Yes that is the pattern I see, I have discussed it with The Hare The Hare before, first race and the valley very often seems a faster track than the 2nd race and to a lesser extent the 2nd race faster than the rest of the card, this can be hidden occasionally by pace or slow races, but generally this is the pattern we see and it can be a significant difference . How to account for this another matter.
If you ever run code and have strong findings I for one would be very interested if you would be happy sharing. It’s something I will look more into myself but I don’t think my methods will be able to quantify it accuratel.
 
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looking at without compare figures adjusted times for interest sake.
Just on reading your post now, re race 1, I just visually went back thru some dates I can see 22/4 the first is is -.41 fast track, but every other race afterwards is slower then nuetral then the track must be roller and it quickens a bit, but the point is the first early sectionals in those slowish races were run faster then neutral so they tried to make time , but the track speed slows them down, so I need to think how to capture something meaningful, without too much noise i suppose.

1781006928625.png
 
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