Hong Kong Speed Figures
- Thread starter The Hare
- Start date
worthapunt
Newbie
With the prices being given would bloody hope so, not worth touching I feel unfortunately. Looks like my model picks out some similar to yours but others doesn't look at at all
The Hare
Mare
Results and card for Wednesday at Happy Valley.
17 in a row for Ka Ying Rising, just the usual locla suspects on Sunday so nothing special as not extended.
Romantic Warrior wins again as well from the stepped up in trip Lucky Sweynesse, showing his best for a while.
Excellent ratings again O Outlander !
17 in a row for Ka Ying Rising, just the usual locla suspects on Sunday so nothing special as not extended.
Romantic Warrior wins again as well from the stepped up in trip Lucky Sweynesse, showing his best for a while.
Excellent ratings again O Outlander !
Plenty of winners on Sunday and a couple of others lost in close finishes, the last race the best.
On the Probability front don't think many worryingly out of line, ranked the newcomer in the first top but 1.5 nothing in my ratings could get the horse anywhere near that low, probably the worst was Packing Angel who was improving and running in 4yo series but been off for a while and my guide had him very short, he had 6 trials and none of them suggested he was at that level yet and his first run they targeted a race over possibly inadequate 1200m, so maybe some tinkering needs to be done with this type of horse off an injury and not trialling up to the the level before the injury, Horse might be able to build back but my probabilities had him way too short on Sunday under the circumstances. Island Buddy i think the trainer switch helped him, the syndicates didn't miss him but my ratings did.
Ka Ying Rising probably best sprinter in history, think he was way off it in Australia but when i run my figures compared to horses i can measure against like Golden Sixty and Romantic Warrior he is clearly the best i've rated in HK.
HV Tomorrow ratings and probabilities attached
On the Probability front don't think many worryingly out of line, ranked the newcomer in the first top but 1.5 nothing in my ratings could get the horse anywhere near that low, probably the worst was Packing Angel who was improving and running in 4yo series but been off for a while and my guide had him very short, he had 6 trials and none of them suggested he was at that level yet and his first run they targeted a race over possibly inadequate 1200m, so maybe some tinkering needs to be done with this type of horse off an injury and not trialling up to the the level before the injury, Horse might be able to build back but my probabilities had him way too short on Sunday under the circumstances. Island Buddy i think the trainer switch helped him, the syndicates didn't miss him but my ratings did.
Ka Ying Rising probably best sprinter in history, think he was way off it in Australia but when i run my figures compared to horses i can measure against like Golden Sixty and Romantic Warrior he is clearly the best i've rated in HK.
HV Tomorrow ratings and probabilities attached
your not on an island in regard to Packing Angel, the early markets were the right pointer, that runner was a good isolation case for adjusting a market
Well ratings were mediocre on Wednesday and probabilities very poor , 99 for the last winner especially, made some minor improvements to my trial ratings after that one. This was the first day I hadn’t made at least a small profit from my bets since I added probabilities so I think it has been helping me to make better choices. Skybet were 7/2 China Win and really poor decisions not to bet at the time and odds were gone after I walked the dog, really would have been the only winner even on my radar.
great effort on the weekend, I thought you went ok at happy Valley on the 18th too, I was meaning to post about that meeting Copartner Fleet, my prediction algo had it ranked 2nd and I checked your pricing, yours was fractionally longer than mine ended up a great race. The reasoning of my algo had it leading or close by, it ended raced 10-10 funny game. But pat's on the back for a great effort, I didnt wager the first race on the 1/2 but watching the race, noticed Green field pearl was interesting at $102 on the tote
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Thanks W woof43 appreciate the comments and interest, I think since I started pricing up runners I’m learning more. But some are still a mystery, the Patch Of Theta race I was amazed by the price of the horse in that race, race looked very tight race on my figures but he was always a strong odds on favourite. I enjoyed the card betting wise , no prices issued in the evening before I went to bed, got up in the morning to bet Little Paradise 4/1, Rising Phoenix 11/1 and Lucky Sam Gor 6/1 so one of my best efforts for a while. Rising Phoenix was apparently opening at 18/1 when I was asleep so was heavily corrected throughout the day.
I won’t get to enjoy profits from a good betting run last few weeks because I’m having a bad run of expenses latest my bike breaking down on Thursday, so I will need a few more good weeks just to cover bad luck elsewhere.
Still if I was happy with my ratings and happy with my adjustments, I still wouldn’t be confident pricing races up if I had to lay those odds, sure I would be selectively picked off, but I find this approach can help you do decide on bets with a clearer head.
Of course my bets are in the up to £20 bracket, so not serious punting.
Race 2 is an interesting race, Flash Star. you have on top, I have rated 3rd, I have the 4, 2 and 9, my early sectionals are against the 4 wide draw will go back the 2 and 9 look to be able to settle just back and in the right zone, 9 just improved out of nowhere it's last start and everything relies on that one formline whereas the other two runners 2 and 4 have been consistently good, Race 1 I have the 1 and 2 as the top two
Had a quick look as out today and will miss the racing altogether, Flash Star as you say one form line, no confidence in the market, top rated with me but how reliable, interesting had no race form prior to that win but was top rated on my trial ratings as he had run very well in a trial , I didn’t consider him that day in truth but the form of that trial is very good,
|
Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Gear | LBW | Running Position | Time | Result | Comment |
| WITH A SMILE (K136) | Z Purton | W Y So | 08 | 9 7 1 | 1.10.62 | Shifted out at turn; ran on to score when balancing up at 200m. | |||
| BLAZING WUKONG(K335) | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 10 | Nose | 8 4 2 | 1.10.62 | Quickened at turn; not fully tested. | ||
| FLASH STAR (K431) | R Kingscote | C S Shum | 01 | H | 1L | 1 1 3 | 1.10.78 | Passed | Led early; kept on for 3rd. |
| KINGLY DEMEANOR(H486) | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 03 | 3L | 2 2 4 | 1.11.09 | On pace early; stayed on when asked in the Straight. | ||
| STAR FIGURE (K215) | L Hewitson | J Richards | 05 | 6L | 5 6 5 | 1.11.56 | Limited response when persuaded in the Straight. | ||
| MASTER LUCKY(K582) | H Bowman | J Size | 09 | 8-1/2L | 4 3 6 | 1.11.98 | Passed | Laying in and unable to be ridden out when under whip at 300m. | |
| LIGHTNING ARROW(K360) | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 04 | PC | 8-1/2L | 7 9 7 | 1.11.99 | Required to pass barrier trial | Lost balance when stumbled at 700m; made minor inroads when asked at 200m. |
| CROSSBORDERDUDE(L022) | B Avdulla | J Size | 06 | 9-1/2L | 6 8 8 | 1.12.12 | Limited response in the Straight; finished at rear. | ||
| TORVEIN (K375) | L Ferraris | J Richards | 07 | B/XB | 10L | 10 10 9 | 1.12.21 | Passed | Failed to respond when asked in the Straight. |
| ZHOU GONGJIN(K337) | C L Chau | B Crawford | 02 | 16-1/4L | 3 5 10 | 1.13.23 | Gave ground; tailed off. |
look at the recent winners in that trial 1,2,3,6 +8th all won since
Flash Star had 2 trials since his win and not as inspiring.
The other horse you mention Victor The Rapid gets back and has eye catching finish especially if race collapses.
Probert has managed about 0 wins from about 125 rides, his ride on Gimme Five last time was woeful, he looked to have more run in him and they have given him another chance on the horse.
The solid one is probably Loving Vibes but I’ve filed race in the too complicated tray.
Race 1 is another with a lot of questions , Rainbow Seven beat recent winner Thunder Blink in a trial and is at least an interesting runner.
My ratings favour Packing King, again that is trial based, although he has shown ability in races but not finishing off.
Zero confidence in this race either.
My ratings then seem to be favouring fancied runners in most of the latter races, none of which look that exciting to bet at early prices.
Thats a lot of waffle to arrive at the point where I’m uninspired by the card today, and not too bothered i will miss the action.
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Well done with your pace projections W woof43 , pictured race 2 nicely, hope you had a good return on Victor The Rapid. Good stuff.
Think I did well to swerve the card as my predictions not great this time.
The first winner my rating devalued for 3 under par runs, I noticed the commentator mentioning the horse didn’t pull this time, discussed with
The Hare previously Jimmy Orman is brilliant on these types he transformed horses like Wonderstar and another of today’s winners Candlelight Dinner into productive racehorses when previously over racing. This time back to form and scuppered your top 2 predictions unfortunately.All salient points on the first race, the drop back in distances the slow first sectionals in those longer races, whereas it's first couple of runs broke the 24sec adjusted time in the first sectionals, as you discussed with The Hare, trying to settle must have been the key and then the jockey change sometimes you don't see the trees for the forest, it was interesting the drift on Purton horse as well, was like the syndicates were laying it. R2 great result
I think it's important to be able to incorporate data from the other runners into your formlines, I have attached a jpg just showing some simple alpha data from my greyhounds data, Greyhound racing it's very important to be able to know when a dog has been advantaged because of the box draw. In this attachment the last column has D1D, B3D and C1C these were three different dogs. A=1-2 PIR 1st turn, B=3-4 PIR 1st Turn , C=5-6 PIR 1st Turn D= 7-8 PIR first turn , but D can also represent a Vacant box or No boxes if a runner was drawn Bx 1 it auto gets a D in my system, now the middle number tells me what this runners PIR at 1st turn so it can be 1 to 8 depending on the #starters, lastly the 3rd Alpha describes dogs drawn on the outside of this runner where they were at PIR 1st Turn. this is crucial data for greyhound racing but it also allows you to analysis the situational aspect of a race. the middle column 136 for example is describing another PIR which is the Top Turn in a greyhound race, the left hand figure 1 describes where it was at that point 1 = it led, 3 indicates that it is ranked 3rd in acceleration from the 1st split to the Top Turn split and finally 6 describes it ranked 6th in run home time from the top turn to the finish, just some simple numbers but very worthwhile, I do the same with HK but that is IP but it describes a lot more of other types of data but within the running of the race
