The Hare below my standards for comparison all pretty uniform around 0.11-0.13 sec/200m lower than yours, with the obvious exception of the 5f at Sha Tin and the longest distance at HV and ST.
I compile standards totally differently than most , but one of us is wrong on these particular 3 distances by about what amounts to 8-12 lbs
Probably not a simple as it seems as you suggest with the way the straight 5f relates to the turn races on the different racing lines in Sha Tin turf.
The performance of my ratings in HK would suggest my standards can‘t be perfect, so I’m not suggesting that it is your standards that are wrong.
STANDARD TIMES The Hare sec/200 LBS/SEC Outlander sec/200 LBS/SEC Correlation HAPPY VALLEY 100057.61 11.5220 26.0456.94 11.3880 26.34 0.1340HAPPY VALLEY 120070.46 11.7433 21.2969.75 11.6250 21.51 0.1183HAPPY VALLEY 1650100.71 12.2073 14.8999.57 12.0691 15.06 0.1382HAPPY VALLEY 1800110.22 12.2467 13.61109.02 12.1133 13.76 0.1333HAPPY VALLEY 2200137.58 12.5073 10.90135.35 12.3045 11.08 0.2027SHA TIN AWT 120069.56 11.5933 21.5668.74 11.4567 21.82 0.1367SHA TIN AWT 165099.54 12.0655 15.0798.31 11.9164 15.26 0.1491SHA TIN AWT 1800109.05 12.1167 13.76107.87 11.9856 13.91 0.1311SHA TIN 100057.13 11.4260 26.2656.01 11.2020 26.78 0.2240SHA TIN 120070.00 11.6667 21.4369.27 11.5450 21.65 0.1217SHA TIN 140082.59 11.7986 18.1681.85 11.6929 18.33 0.1057SHA TIN 160095.43 11.9288 15.7294.59 11.8238 15.86 0.1050SHA TIN 1800108.33 12.0367 13.85107.37 11.9300 13.97 0.1067SHA TIN 2000122.86 12.2860 12.21121.73 12.1730 12.32 0.1130SHA TIN 2200134.88 12.2618 11.12133.66 12.1509 11.22 0.1109SHA TIN 2400150.10 12.5083 9.99147.01 12.2508 10.20 0.2575
So then attached are comparisons between the Official Ratings, My form ratings and my speed figures.
I discarded the first season of results from my figures to allow the ratings to settle. As I say I calculate my Going allowances as just the Median of the difference between today's raw rating and the last 3 ratings given to the horse. This is a little rough and ready, I suppose the last rating is more significant then the one before and so on. This is something I could look into to fine tune the differences but generally it is close. My form ratings are on a similar scale, with the raw differences for beaten runners calculated using the same formula above. The difference is that for these I just use the Median differences based on a race by race basis.
So I took all finishers for the last 4 and a half seasons, deleted all that hadn't finished or were beaten far enough to record a rating of less than -60 for form. I also deleted those horses with no official rating, all Griffin races and some of the Group runners have no rating.
The attached gives the average Official Rating of each horse in each class, those in yellow are were there are less than a 100 runners in the sample. As can be seen there is usually a gap of between 17 and 19 ranking points between Classes 2 and 3 and 3 and 4, which with a spread of 20 rating points is fine.
The average form ratings are my ratings for the same runners as the official ratings. These are slightly different as they include distance beaten and weight but show a close match to the Official ratings. Perhaps indicating the formula is a little incorrect as the table of differences suggests my ratings increase a little compared to the official ratings as distance increases. Maybe just over 1 rating point/pound per distance.
I am using the actual finishing time of each horse in calculating the ratings, so (1500*(difference Standard-finishing time)/finishing time). I think this can be addressed a little by using the standard time or the winners time to calculate this.
But the big difference is with the Speed Figures. As we can see there is a close correlation between the form and official ratings yet my speed figures are much different. So the differences between Classes don't match!
So the Totals page averages the runners in each class using weightings for the runners. It seems that the Speed Figures increase by 1 point for every 2.4 points of Official ratings and Form ratings.
As I say my form and speed use the sane method of 1lb in weight = 1point beaten and the same scale for beaten distances. The only difference is how the Going Allowance is calculated. Maybe i need more manual work on calculating the Going adjustment for speed figures, perhaps a different one for 1000m races at Sha Tin would help but clearly the speed figures can never match the form ones.
I did try non weight ratings and may have another look at those to see if i can work out a better adjustment for weight carried.
When compiling the meeting ratings I use the last 10 runs in the last 365 days, perhaps this is the problem? I will test the effect of looking at different number of races in the past at a later date.
Kevin
Course | DIST | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Group | GRIFFIN |
HV Turf | 1000 | 56.67 | 57.04 | 57.44 | 57.58 | |||
1200 | 69.24 | 69.73 | 69.96 | 70.25 | 70.58 | |||
1650 | 99.14 | 99.63 | 100.00 | 100.62 | 100.81 | |||
1800 | 108.83 | 109.25 | 109.47 | 109.96 | 110.66 | 108.83 | ||
2200 | 136.65 | 137.59 | 138.13 | |||||
ST Turf | 1000 | 55.65 | 56.18 | 56.63 | 56.89 | 57.82 | 56.19 | 56.66 |
1200 | 68.32 | 69.16 | 69.40 | 69.76 | 70.00 | 70.10 | ||
1400 | 81.31 | 81.80 | 81.92 | 82.42 | 82.91 | 81.07 | ||
1600 | 94.41 | 94.54 | 94.66 | 95.41 | 95.76 | 93.52 | ||
1800 | 107.09 | 107.68 | 108.03 | 108.77 | 106.57 | |||
2000 | 121.37 | 121.59 | 122.40 | 123.27 | 123.89 | 120.90 | ||
2200 | 136.47 | |||||||
2400 | 146.22 |
Certainly be interested in anything you can help. To be honest I don't bet on Hong Kong racing, just purely interest and used it to try and devise spreadsheets to calculate automatic ratings and speed figures.Thank you so much, Kevin. Let me take some time to digest and build up my standards and would share it with you afterward. I can also share two of my tissue price systems based on the normal distribution and MLR later if you are interested. Will keep you posted here! Good Luck on the Shatin race tmr!