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Hong Kong Speed Figures

The Hare

The Hare

Colt
Excellent O Outlander ,

I used to post the ratings and last 10 runs for each horse in the last year but thought only myself and O Outlander looked at it. I will put up again for Friday's meeting.

I have been messing around with many different ideas for HK racing as O Outlander says.

I produce basically 3 sets of ratings for each race at the moment - Sped Figures including weight and Form figures with weight and non weight. O Outlander spends more time on the speed figures than I have this season and I haven't changed my standard times which I should. Surprisingly though most races are very close to each other in calculating a Going Allowance so producing figures should be relatively easy for the 2 meetings a week. As O Outlander says Sha Tin 1000m is unreliable, I used to think it was down to the wind speed as said it is the only straight course used. It uses a different part of the course to other races which could mean it is faster ground as raced on less. We haven't worked it out and as O Outlander says standards are variable for this distance.

I tried to calculate form ratings by computer as an experiment really, The problem I have is based on all results this year the non weight ratinggs are much better than anything else I produce! I don't think zero weight adjustment is perfect but it is a better prediction than including weight at he 1pt for 1lb scale. I use a method similar to the Simon Rowlands article published earlier for speed figures.

You mention weight of horses- these are the 10 highest and lowest recorded weights for horses since 2015-16 season. Quite a spread.

1656428461502.png

O Outlander has given you some excellent ideas here but as mentioned we still haven't cracked the answer! I can send you results if you are interested, contain all information on HKJC site since 2015-16 season. The going is very consistent except for occasional soft ground meetings.
 
O

Outlander

Gelding
The Hare said:
Excellent O Outlander ,

I used to post the ratings and last 10 runs for each horse in the last year but thought only myself and O Outlander looked at it. I will put up again for Friday's meeting.

I have been messing around with many different ideas for HK racing as O Outlander says.

I produce basically 3 sets of ratings for each race at the moment - Sped Figures including weight and Form figures with weight and non weight. O Outlander spends more time on the speed figures than I have this season and I haven't changed my standard times which I should. Surprisingly though most races are very close to each other in calculating a Going Allowance so producing figures should be relatively easy for the 2 meetings a week. As O Outlander says Sha Tin 1000m is unreliable, I used to think it was down to the wind speed as said it is the only straight course used. It uses a different part of the course to other races which could mean it is faster ground as raced on less. We haven't worked it out and as O Outlander says standards are variable for this distance.

I tried to calculate form ratings by computer as an experiment really, The problem I have is based on all results this year the non weight ratinggs are much better than anything else I produce! I don't think zero weight adjustment is perfect but it is a better prediction than including weight at he 1pt for 1lb scale. I use a method similar to the Simon Rowlands article published earlier for speed figures.

You mention weight of horses- these are the 10 highest and lowest recorded weights for horses since 2015-16 season. Quite a spread.

View attachment 119459

O Outlander has given you some excellent ideas here but as mentioned we still haven't cracked the answer! I can send you results if you are interested, contain all information on HKJC site since 2015-16 season. The going is very consistent except for occasional soft ground meetings.
Click to expand...
I forgot about Run Des Run horse seems to be getting heavier every run and seems to run better, although I’m sure I read the horse has had multiple pelvic injuries in the last year so maybe his bulk puts too much strain on his huge frame.
 
The Hare

The Hare

Colt
Just to show how good or bad the ratings are, these are the number of winners in the Top 3 in all races this season, less 1 wre all were unraced and 11 for O Outlander which I missed as away at the time. They don't look too impressive at first sight but unlike Timeform and other claims in UK racing these are only based on the top 3 performances as decimal places sort them into strict order.

Also the vast majority of races are handicaps of 12-14 runners and very competitive. The races are based on all runs in the last year up to and including the last 10. As can be seen the best perfomer are the no weight form ratings. O Outlander speed figures are much better than mine which i have neglected this season to look at the form ratings. Also O Outlander uses a decay on his ratings based on no of tuns ago and date, mine are just raw ratings at the time of the race. Just over 3% of races are won by newcomers. These include today's races, 786 in total, 775 for O Outlander .

1656441825807.png
 
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The Hare

The Hare

Colt
So these are the figures for Friday 1st July, the last 10 ratings for Form (weighted) and Speed Figures, the number of days since each run and then the best of last number of races and ratings in race for the number of runs/
 

Attachments

  • ST0107.xlsx
    603.7 KB · Views: 4
The Hare

The Hare

Colt
Races for Happy Valley tomorrow.

The form ratings had a couple of top on the last 7 runs on a minefield for form. Going soft for first time in 12 years in Sha Tin.
 

Attachments

  • HV0607.xlsx
    598.3 KB · Views: 1
ARAZI91

ARAZI91

Gelding
Outlander said:
I’m not sure how accurate they are, they have different standards for each class, my instinct is they are not that good, overly favouring staying races with lenient standards over the longer distances, but I don’t use them so I don’t know for sure. Don’t use the Racing Post because I looked at those and I know they are rubbish. If you open one of my ratings sheets there is a column for standard times, my standards are not perfect because Sha Tin 1000m needs to be treated with extreme caution, some races extremely fast compared to others, it is run on a straight course all other Hong kong races are round course but they are accurate enough for all other distances. The latest one I posted was 15/2/22 on this thread and haven’t changed much since except Sha Tin 1000 that I treat differently. You could use them as a guide and compare with HKJC. Although I have only one standard for each distance not one for each class.

This is a fantastic website to investigate

HKrules

hkrules.com hkrules.com

He had standard times (pars) on the site, but he seems to be now creating pars without the first section, to be honest this is an idea I have also considered .

Help – HKrules

hkrules.com hkrules.com
Click to expand...
O Outlander - I'll Dm you some info about HK,you can pass it onto The Hare The Hare etc.
 
ARAZI91

ARAZI91

Gelding
The Hare said:
Excellent O Outlander ,

I used to post the ratings and last 10 runs for each horse in the last year but thought only myself and O Outlander looked at it. I will put up again for Friday's meeting.

I have been messing around with many different ideas for HK racing as O Outlander says.

I produce basically 3 sets of ratings for each race at the moment - Sped Figures including weight and Form figures with weight and non weight. O Outlander spends more time on the speed figures than I have this season and I haven't changed my standard times which I should. Surprisingly though most races are very close to each other in calculating a Going Allowance so producing figures should be relatively easy for the 2 meetings a week. As O Outlander says Sha Tin 1000m is unreliable, I used to think it was down to the wind speed as said it is the only straight course used. It uses a different part of the course to other races which could mean it is faster ground as raced on less. We haven't worked it out and as O Outlander says standards are variable for this distance.

I tried to calculate form ratings by computer as an experiment really, The problem I have is based on all results this year the non weight ratinggs are much better than anything else I produce! I don't think zero weight adjustment is perfect but it is a better prediction than including weight at he 1pt for 1lb scale. I use a method similar to the Simon Rowlands article published earlier for speed figures.

You mention weight of horses- these are the 10 highest and lowest recorded weights for horses since 2015-16 season. Quite a spread.

View attachment 119459

O Outlander has given you some excellent ideas here but as mentioned we still haven't cracked the answer! I can send you results if you are interested, contain all information on HKJC site since 2015-16 season. The going is very consistent except for occasional soft ground meetings.
Click to expand...
The anomaly that is Sha Tin's 1000mtrs track is well known amongst the serious timefigure peeps that work HK.
Outlander said:
It’s difficult for me to advise on a book because I use only my own methods, a lot of people read Mordin books, but I think the article I posted has more accurate methods, The weight of every horse in every race in recorded in Hong Kong , I think off the top of my head the lightest I’ve seen is about 980 lbs the heaviest was a lovely big ex Australian brute called Naboo Attack who unfortunately died in a racing accident earlier this season he was about 1340 lbs from memory.
Click to expand...
Looking at my HK data of around 76000 runs , the average declared weight of a horse (pre jockey) is 1105 lbs with a Std.dev of 62lbs.The avg weight of a jockey over that data is ~123 lbs with an SD of 6lbs. The two combined together is - avg 1228 lbs with an SD of 63lbs
 
Last edited:
The Hare

The Hare

Colt
Races for Sunday.

ARAZI91 said:
The anomaly that is Sha Tin's 1000mtrs track is well known amongst the serious timefigure peeps that work HK.

Looking at my HK data of around 76000 runs , the average declared weight of a horse (pre jockey) is 1105 lbs with a Std.dev of 62lbs.The avg weight of a jockey over that data is ~123 lbs with an SD of 6lbs. The two combined together is - avg 1228 lbs with an SD of 63lbs
Click to expand...
Hello ARAZI91 ARAZI91 thanks for the contributions, any help welcome.

The card at Sha Tin last week is crazy for speed figures. As I say mine are in need of altering the standard times a little but my going difference for each race was 33,-23,-29,-33,-5,-36,-58,-31,-16,-16.

The going supposedly got a little softer as the meeting went on yet these suggest the first time is crazy. after the 2nd the next few are similar except the 5th. Then after the excellent Hewitson gambled on crossing the track in the 8th the other 2 races all followed suit so a little quicker for those. Based on that it will be a miracle if Royal Agility can follow up on Sunday (winner of 8th race).
 

Attachments

  • 1007.xlsx
    607.7 KB · Views: 2
ARAZI91

ARAZI91

Gelding
The Hare said:
Races for Sunday.


Hello ARAZI91 ARAZI91 thanks for the contributions, any help welcome.

The card at Sha Tin last week is crazy for speed figures. As I say mine are in need of altering the standard times a little but my going difference for each race was 33,-23,-29,-33,-5,-36,-58,-31,-16,-16.

The going supposedly got a little softer as the meeting went on yet these suggest the first time is crazy. after the 2nd the next few are similar except the 5th. Then after the excellent Hewitson gambled on crossing the track in the 8th the other 2 races all followed suit so a little quicker for those. Based on that it will be a miracle if Royal Agility can follow up on Sunday (winner of 8th race).
Click to expand...
Was trying to get in touch with O Outlander by PM, just on the subject of the standard times but looks as though he does not allow Private Messages. Do you and i'll get in touch ?
 
O

Outlander

Gelding
ARAZI91 said:
Was trying to get in touch with O Outlander by PM, just on the subject of the standard times but looks as though he does not allow Private Messages. Do you and i'll get in touch ?
Click to expand...
ARAZI91 ARAZI91 As far as I’m aware I allow Private Massages, I have received them in the past although for for over 1 year, I assume that’s because nobody needed to message me, I will try to message you and see if it works.
 
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