• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Hong Kong Speed Figures

The Hare

Colt
Sunday at Sha Tin with Group action, form attached.

R1 - Looking Great up in distance in best form.
R2 - Whiskey Neat interesting of those with run but plenty newcomers to beat it
R3 - Sky Field seems most likely
R4 - Purton and Teeton swap rides, Voyage Bubble for Purton.
R5 - Pride of Dragon may have a little more to give, Salutation possibly do better
R6 - Super competitive! Right as Rain with Teeton interesting, Beauty Spirit back on a winnable mark.
R7 - Five Elements gets Purton, maybe edge over Super Fortune
R8 - Golden Sixty has the ratings again, hopefully a better attitude than last time.
R9 - Captain Win probably find one too good again, Crossford may improve further.
R10 - Copartner Ambition 2nd run new trainer and Purton, plenty others though - Charity Grace best of those.
 

Attachments

  • ST2002.xlsx
    271.8 KB · Views: 1

The Hare

Colt
Tomorrow Happy Valley

R1 - Winning Volatility up in trip interesting. Go Ballistic a good one for your class - 74 and 73 last 2 Class 5 64 and 67 Class 4.

R2 - Dr Winning improved last, prefer Gift of Lifeline.

R3 - Maximize Heart and Sparky Star both return after

R4 - Mega Bonus seems to be improving a little

R5 - Super Commander quite interesting on a low mark. Plenty lightly raced dangers though.

R6 - Harmony Fire sets the standards, Awesome Treasure maybe the one to beat it?

R7 - Rewarding Together improving, very competitive though. Seizing The Moment maybe a better price.

R8 - Salvaquin in a decent race

R9 - A lot of these seem to be running wrong trip - 1000m horses? Voyage Warrior at least gets the trip.
 

Attachments

  • HV230222.xlsx
    263.6 KB · Views: 0
Last edited:

The Hare

Colt
Sha Tin form for Sunday

r1 - Moreira is back and straight on Sky Gem. Fortune Triple an alternative.

R2 - Teeton on Regency Gem interesting,

R3 - Moreira gets on Fiery Diamond with a big chance.

R4 - Perfect to Great on a good mark. Purton has a decent chance on RIse Brethren

R5 - Everyone's Victory maybe improving. Private Rocket back at best trip as well.

R6 - Set to go to a lightly raced. Brilliant Race in a doubtful betting race.

R7 - Hard to avoid Purton and Moreira on Oriental Smoke and Solar Partner.

R8 - The front 3 from the mile race step up to the new trip. Purton back on California Spangle,

R9 - Seasons Bliss to beat the Purton and Moreira challenge?

R10 - Cordyceps leads the way but up from 3 to 2 might find him out. Stoltz maybe more improvement up in trip and Class. Tough race!
 

Attachments

  • ST2702.xlsx
    292.8 KB · Views: 0

The Hare

Colt
Wednesday at Happy Valley

R1 - Villa Fionn stands out on ratings but climbs a grade. You say 4 to 3 not so bad. Presence the obvious danger.

R2 - Diamond Star in a poor race

R3 - Viva Hunter been given a great chance as making small progress. World famous the danger.

R4 - Sunny Delight back on turf good, Lucky Diamond a danger.

R5 - Gallant Waking made a great start, Blissful Star back with Purton and Loriz good chances to beat it though.

R6 - Joyful Genius another chance to get head in front.

R7 - Packing Famous another chance. The 2 low weight Class 5 runners are tempting like you say, maybe that Young Victory has best chance pf the 2.

R8 - Decisive Twelve to beat Namjong Sings

R9 - Lucky Sweyness will i suppose be short
 

Attachments

  • HV0203.xlsx
    644 KB · Views: 2

The Hare

Colt
Wednesday

R1 - Zac gets on Viva Mamma with a big chance. Quite like Raging Blaze though on a low mark.

R2 - Amazing boy keeps finding one too good, maybe Diamond Star?

R3 - Victorious Seeker maybe back to best trip and on a winning mark.

R4 - Kokushi Musou improved last and lightly raced, Melbourne Hall has chances at best.

R5 - Nearly Fine gets Moreira, maybe Big Two has a little more to come and can win?

R6 - Like That class drop and Moreira has Joyful Genius to beat

R7 - Killer Instinct and Eason likely to lead the market and finishers?

R8 - Armour Eagle could win again,

R9 - Everyone's Delight has a big chance down in grade, looks best of the day really.
 

Attachments

  • Book2.xlsx
    636.4 KB · Views: 37

The Hare

Colt
Missed a few, sorry. Card for Wednesday.

R1 - A shocker! STAR OF RED improved ;pads new trainer last but back shorter and turf puts me off. Which leaves Top 2 - STAR OF WUYI a good chance dropped in class but ABOVE ALL ran so well last has to be selection.

R2 - Not much better. UNIVERSAL CROWN has decent recent form. I would be looking at SHANGHAI POWER to beat it. SUNNY AND GOLD makes a quick reappearance so could go close.

R3 - STREET SCREAM is in good shape and should be close. MELBOURNE HALL has good form but on the soft ground meeting. Most interesting is AMIGOS GIGGLES on first run for Fownes, quite likeable.

R4 - Has to be bad when 2 8yo's lead the way! WIN WIN FIGHT a tentative choice against them.

R5 - SEE U AGAIN slightly preferred. CHARMING STEED the alternative.

R6 - HK DRAGON running well. Quite like FAST PACE for the class drop though.

R7 - BEAUTY GLORY ran well last. GALLANT CROWN consistent for a place.

R8 - SEIZING THE MOMENT progressing nicely.

R9 - EASON improving well. WOOD ON FIRE interesting at a price.
 

Attachments

  • HV1304.xlsx
    631.8 KB · Views: 0
Hi,

i am very interested in learning how to compile speed ratings for Hong Kong races. Having a look through this thread leaves me even more confused!

So, I'm looking at the HKJC website and they have a page of standard times. I'm guessing, to give a horse a speed rating, you look at the horse's last race? Or is it the last race over the same distance?

What about a going allowance, where does that come from?

Am I right in saying the purpose of speed ratings to find out how well a horse is handicapped?

Do I have to look at each horse in the race, and then look at their previous race's finishing time?

The more I've been reading the more confusing it seems to me!
 
Last edited:

Outlander

Gelding
Hi,

i am very interested in learning how to compile speed ratings for Hong Kong races. Having a look through this thread leaves me even more confused!

So, I'm looking at the HKJC website and they have a page of standard times. I'm guessing, to give a horse a speed rating, you look at the horse's last race? Or is it the last race over the same distance?

What about a going allowance, where does that come from?

Am I right in saying the purpose of speed ratings to find out how well a horse is handicapped?

The more I've been reading the more confusing it seems to me!
The Hare The Hare and myself have been trying to get more and more accurate speed ratings for Hong Kong for a couple of years now.
It is confusing and a lot of work , thankfully Hong Kong only has 2 meetings a week so it’s possible to keep on top of the racing there
The standard times on the HKJC site I don’t think are accurate enough
You have to calculate the going allowance yourself, I don’t know anywhere that publishes going allowances for Hong Kong. You calculate going allowance based on the times returned in each race on the card and comparing them with the standard time.
There are infinite ways to calculate standard times , going allowances and the ratings themselves.
If you gave a million people the same data none of them would have the same figures , so it’s open to interpretation.
You don’t just look at the horses last race although this is the most reliable as most recent, in Hong Kong looking at he last 5 runs on the surface I think is optimum but again that’s up to individual preference
Do you use weight in your calculation or not is one of many other considerations
The idea is to put a number on each past performance of every horse so you can use the ratings to determine which horse is best or best handicapped as you say.
If a beginner probably need to read a tutorial on how to compile figures and practice a bit first

this is online guide by respected compiler Simon Rowlands
everyone has their own methods
but if you are a beginner could be helpful to you


the bit where he compares the form ratings to the time rating to help calculate a going allowance you wouldn’t need to do that if you were using HKJC standard times because they have different standards for each class of race at each distance so that step would be already factored in so you wouldn’t need a form rating.
 
Last edited:
The Hare The Hare and myself have been trying to get more and more accurate speed ratings for Hong Kong for a couple of years now.
It is confusing and a lot of work , thankfully Hong Kong only has 2 meetings a week so it’s possible to keep on top of the racing there
The standard times on the HKJC site I don’t think are accurate enough
You have to calculate the going allowance yourself, I don’t know anywhere that publishes going allowances for Hong Kong. You calculate going allowance based on the times returned in each race on the card and comparing them with the standard time.
There are infinite ways to calculate standard times , going allowances and the ratings themselves.
If you gave a million people the same data none of them would have the same figures , so it’s open to interpretation.
You don’t just look at the horses last race although this is the most reliable as most recent, in Hong Kong looking at he last 5 runs on the surface I think is optimum but again that’s up to individual preference
Do you use weight in your calculation or not is one of many other considerations
The idea is to put a number on each past performance of every horse so you can use the ratings to determine which horse is best or best handicapped as you say.
If a beginner probably need to read a tutorial on how to compile figures and practice a bit first

this is online guide by respected compiler Simon Rowlands
everyone has their own methods
but if you are a beginner could be helpful to you


the bit where he compares the form ratings to the time rating to help calculate a going allowance you wouldn’t need to do that if you were using HKJC standard times because they have different standards for each class of race at each distance so that step would be already factored in so you wouldn’t need a form rating.

hi O Outlander

your link is very helpful, thank you. i am indeed a beginner at compiling my own speed figures. I choose Hong Kong because there is a lot of info freely available, and only two races a week so it's relatively easier to manage.

I am indeed going to factor in weight, I'm guessing the average weight of a horse, any racehorse, is around 1500lbs (as said in this article)?

What beginners guide would you recommend? Is there a book, or a guide online, that puts it into very basic terms and how to begin?
 

Outlander

Gelding
hi O Outlander

your link is very helpful, thank you. i am indeed a beginner at compiling my own speed figures. I choose Hong Kong because there is a lot of info freely available, and only two races a week so it's relatively easier to manage.

I am indeed going to factor in weight, I'm guessing the average weight of a horse, any racehorse, is around 1500lbs (as said in this article)?

What beginners guide would you recommend? Is there a book, or a guide online, that puts it into very basic terms and how to begin?
It’s difficult for me to advise on a book because I use only my own methods, a lot of people read Mordin books, but I think the article I posted has more accurate methods, The weight of every horse in every race in recorded in Hong Kong , I think off the top of my head the lightest I’ve seen is about 980 lbs the heaviest was a lovely big ex Australian brute called Naboo Attack who unfortunately died in a racing accident earlier this season he was about 1340 lbs from memory.
 

Outlander

Gelding
hi O Outlander

your link is very helpful, thank you. i am indeed a beginner at compiling my own speed figures. I choose Hong Kong because there is a lot of info freely available, and only two races a week so it's relatively easier to manage.

I am indeed going to factor in weight, I'm guessing the average weight of a horse, any racehorse, is around 1500lbs (as said in this article)?

What beginners guide would you recommend? Is there a book, or a guide online, that puts it into very basic terms and how to begin?
This is something I wrote a few years trying to help another member of the forum with Speed Ratings for UK racing, this is a more basic beginners version of my methods , again it uses a class form rating to calculate the going allowance but might be helpful

Hi , I don't worry about how long a horse is this would probably vary between 8 and 9 ft, weight will affect horses differently because horses also range from 1000 lb to 1300 lb and we have no idea what they weigh. So you just have to operate on a best fit for the whole population. I work in seconds per furlong and multiply by 100 , this keeps it simple fits well and every 0.01 sec/ furlong up or down conveniently equals 1 pound in the ratings.
Example horse wins at 5 f Southwell in 58.5 seconds carrying 9st 4 lb and the going was slowing them by 0.12 sec/ furlong and my standard time is 57 seconds.
My calculations would be 1.5 seconds slower than standard
1.5 seconds divided by 5 furlongs = 1.5/5 = 0.3 seconds per furlong slow
0.3 sec/ fur multiply by 100 equals 30 pounds slow
So the time was 30 pounds slow
But the going was slowing them down by 0.12 seconds per furlong
So the going is slowing them by 0.12 multiply by 100 equals 12 pounds
So if the ground wasn't slowing them down the horse would have been 12lb faster
So the rating for this horse is 100 - 30 + 12 + 4 = 86
The 100 is the constant base rating
The 30 is pounds value attributed to the 1.5 seconds the horse was slower than standard
The 12 is pounds allowance to account for the going slowing them down by 0.12 sec/fur
The 4 is the weight the horse carried above 9st, if carry less than 9st thi she would be a negative figure
The 86 is the final rating given to the horse for this performance.

Now imagine if you start by counting the going allowance as ZERO for all races and follow the steps rating all the races on the card.
You could for example return ratings for 6 races of 135, 145, 148, 164, 129 and 130.
You then look at say the RPR ratings or the BHA ratings and for the same races they have performance figures of 94, 103, 100, 110, 91 and 90.
Look at the difference
Race 1 135-94= 41
Race 2 145-103= 42
Race 3 148- 100 = 48
Race 4 164-110 = 54
Race 5 129- 91 = 38
Race 6 130 - 90 = 40
So we can see race 4 is the fastest compared to expected performance because we had it 54 pounds higher than RPR
THE second fastest is Race 3 because it is 48 ponds better
Obviously these horses haven't run this fast the figures are high because the going is speeding the horses up by between 38pounds and 54 pounds
This is where you estimate a going allowance so you could take an average or as I would do take the better times in this case the 54 from race 4 and the 48 from race 3 and average that out to 51
So 51 divided by 100 equals 0.51 seconds per furlong
We have our going allowance speeding them up by 0.51 sec/fur
So we deduct 0.51 x 100 = 51 from the original ratings we had
So now we get 84, 94 , 97, 113 , 78 and 79
Now we can see that race 4 as well as being the best rating on the day is also the most interesting because if we compare them again to the RPR ratings it's the only horse who ran faster than its expected performance rating.
This would be the horse the follow in this case it was also the highest rating on the card, sometimes it can be a lower rated horse that performs best versus expectation, these horses can pay to follow.
 
Thanks O Outlander ! It has taken me a few reads, but this bit is helping it click together.....

Hi , I don't worry about how long a horse is this would probably vary between 8 and 9 ft, weight will affect horses differently because horses also range from 1000 lb to 1300 lb and we have no idea what they weigh. So you just have to operate on a best fit for the whole population. I work in seconds per furlong and multiply by 100 , this keeps it simple fits well and every 0.01 sec/ furlong up or down conveniently equals 1 pound in the ratings.
Example horse wins at 5 f Southwell in 58.5 seconds carrying 9st 4 lb and the going was slowing them by 0.12 sec/ furlong and my standard time is 57 seconds.
My calculations would be 1.5 seconds slower than standard
1.5 seconds divided by 5 furlongs = 1.5/5 = 0.3 seconds per furlong slow
0.3 sec/ fur multiply by 100 equals 30 pounds slow
So the time was 30 pounds slow
But the going was slowing them down by 0.12 seconds per furlong
So the going is slowing them by 0.12 multiply by 100 equals 12 pounds
So if the ground wasn't slowing them down the horse would have been 12lb faster
So the rating for this horse is 100 - 30 + 12 + 4 = 86
The 100 is the constant base rating
The 30 is pounds value attributed to the 1.5 seconds the horse was slower than standard
The 12 is pounds allowance to account for the going slowing them down by 0.12 sec/fur
The 4 is the weight the horse carried above 9st, if carry less than 9st thi she would be a negative figure
The 86 is the final rating given to the horse for this performance.

When you talk about standard times, are the times on the HKJC website a good starting place?
 

Outlander

Gelding
Thanks O Outlander ! It has taken me a few reads, but this bit is helping it click together.....



When you talk about standard times, are the times on the HKJC website a good starting place?
I’m not sure how accurate they are, they have different standards for each class, my instinct is they are not that good, overly favouring staying races with lenient standards over the longer distances, but I don’t use them so I don’t know for sure. Don’t use the Racing Post because I looked at those and I know they are rubbish. If you open one of my ratings sheets there is a column for standard times, my standards are not perfect because Sha Tin 1000m needs to be treated with extreme caution, some races extremely fast compared to others, it is run on a straight course all other Hong kong races are round course but they are accurate enough for all other distances. The latest one I posted was 15/2/22 on this thread and haven’t changed much since except Sha Tin 1000 that I treat differently. You could use them as a guide and compare with HKJC. Although I have only one standard for each distance not one for each class.

This is a fantastic website to investigate


He had standard times (pars) on the site, but he seems to be now creating pars without the first section, to be honest this is an idea I have also considered .

 
Top