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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Cheers hedgehog hedgehog . I'm sure you're right . Shouldn't complain. It was all very low stakes mind you - as always with me - and then I got hit with a Rule 4 which seemed a bit unfortunate - until I realised it maybe only won because of the withdrawal ? Such is life.
 
Hello all,

Looked at 4 races

Sligo 8.20, swerve
Brighton 3.30 swerve
Leopardstown 8.10 swerve
Haydock 4.10, under the covers, show stealer, magical dreamer, gorgeous noora, zip along

My hopes are with gorgeous noora

Good luck today
 
Hello all,

Looked at 3 races today

Leicester 3.45, swerve
Curragh 4.10, swerve
Curragh 5.15, band of outlaws, medal of honour, lethal power, bucky larson

My hopes are with lethal power

Good luck today
 
Hi@Hedgehog,
I've worked the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon. This is a race that is usually affected by the draw. Over the last few seasons the stands side (high numbers) seem to have had an advantage, but this is not always the case. It may pay to wait and see the result of the consolation race (Ripon 2:05) before deciding on what to back or what not to back. My ratings are below.

Ripon 3:15 (1) Growl, (2) Shanghai Glory, (3) Aeolus, (4) Dakota Gold.

High Numbers top 3:- (1) Aeolus, (2) Kimberella, (3) Terentum Star.
Low Numbers top 3:- (1) Growl, (2) Shanghai Glory (3) Dakota Gold.

Good Luck Today and Regards
Nellsman

Update:- Result of consolation hasn't helped I'm backing small stakes EW Kimberella.
 
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Hi hedgehog hedgehog,
I've rated the first race at York, ratings below. I'm stuck for time today. (family duties, always seems to happen when there is a decent meeting, well done with Breanski mickeddy mickeddy)

York 1:55 (1) Gracious John, (2) El Astronaute, (3) Tis Marvellous, (4) Eastern Impact.

Good Luck Today and Regards
Nellsman.
 
Hello Nellsman Nellsman,

Well done with el astronaute, a very good price as well, doubly well done again.

Looked at 3 races today

Killarney 5.30, tentative selection law girl
York 4.15 swerve
York 3.35, I'm torn between coronet and sea of class

Good luck today, I'll not be betting
 
Hi hedgehog hedgehog,
I've rated the Clipper Logistics Handicap at York, ratings below.

York 3:00 (1) Firmament, (2) Afaak, (3) Arcanada.

As you would expect it looks like a tough race and I'm not sure what part the draw will play, but as far as I can see low numbers must have an advantage. Firmament always seems to run well in this race, has been top rated a few times on my ratings this season and I expect he'll run well here from his draw, but it would be no surprise if he finds a couple of progressive 4 year olds too quick for him. Afaak has been running well in good class handicaps and there could be more to come from him. Arcanada gets his rating from his run at this course last season, he has a high draw so may be at a disadvantage. The prices on the 3 lowest drawn horses have all contracted this morning and consequently there seems to be little value (probably the Betfair Boys getting in their back to lay bets). I won't be getting involved financially.

Good Luck and Regards
Nellsman.
 
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Hello Nellsman Nellsman ,

Sorry about your bet but with winners like el astronaute it won't be long before you have it back

Looked at 7 races today and swerved 5.

Killarney 7.00, my hopes are on nessun dorma
Goodwood 7.35, my hopes are on hateya

Both I think are much better horses than they appear

Good luck today
 
Hi hedgehog hedgehog,
another busy day today with loads of racing. I've rated the three big handicaps, ratings below.

Goodwood 3:15 (1) Absolutely So, (2) Flaming Spear, (3) Burnt Sugar.
York 3:40 (1) Crowned Eagle, (2) Nakeeta, (3) Blakeney Point, (4) Platitude.
York 4:50 (1) Another Touch, (2) Kings Gift, (3) Kings Pavilion.

These 3 races are very difficult to sort out. I would be deluding myself if I thought I could dig out the winner of any of these races. I'm hoping
for the best and that the ratings will hold up well.

Good Luck Today and Regards
Nellsman.
 
Hello Nellsman Nellsman ,

I've looked at that race and picked star of the east. Good luck with your selections, I'm sure you'll have every chance of bagging the winner

Good luck today
 
Hi hedgehog hedgehog,
something to note about Star Of The East (he was 3rd on my ratings): the class of the race (OR wise) was about the same as LTO, he had went up 3lbs on OR but was also set to carry a stone more than LTO. This is a very big ask of any horse and these horses are best avoided from a betting point of view. The winner had also gone up in both departments but was relatively unexposed. Bear this in mind for future betting opportunities in handicaps, whilst it may not win you any money it may save you a lot more.
I've rated the stayers handicap at Haydock, ratings below.
Haydock 3:35. (1) Clever Cookie, (2) Hochfeld.

Good Luck and Regards
Nellsman

ps: These 3 things are crucial in handicaps: (1) class of the race LTO (or the race in which the form is being taken from). (2) the OR (official handicap mark and has it gone up or down). (3) the actual weight that the horse is set to carry. All of these elements have to be balanced not only among themselves but also along with today's competitors.
 
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Thanks Nellsman Nellsman,

I much appreciate your advice and will take it on board. I hope I have fully understood with today's selection. 4.00 York rubenesque, it's my favourite and though going up in OR is dropping in physical weight. It is certainly in form and the trainer has used the drop from a longer nh race to a flat race successfully before.

Thanks again and much appreciated

Good luck today
 
Hi hedgehog hedgehog,
I've rated some of the Ayr Handicaps, ratings below.

Ayr 2:00 (1) Fire Brigade, (2) Chatez, (3) Borderforce.
Ayr 2:40 (1) Dakota Gold, (2) Al Qawah, (3) Hayadh.
Ayr 3:50 (1) Growl, (2) Major Jumbo, (3) Upstaging.

I'm having a bet on Young Rascal at Newbury 2:20.

Good Luck and Regards
Nellsman.
 
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