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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog,
to be honest I find it hard to get enthused about racing during the winter. Probably just a personal preference that's become ingrained over the years. But I know I need to get my arse in gear. I've actually been doing some work on VDW. There's loads of stuff on this forum
and I have a lot of material from older forums, so the winter so far has not been a complete loss. Some of the old stuff that I found, I had completely forgotten about. Just goes to show what the passage of time can do. Anyway that's enough muttering about my seasonal laziness, the truth is the basic principles remain the same for all codes. I just need to get my finger out and get on with it.

Regards
Nellsman.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello @Nellsman ,

If you're uncomfortable with winter racing then I'd say just wait for the spring and research vdw instead. There's nothing stopping you from dipping your toe into nh racing as and when you feel like it especially if you want to test out ideas you have gained from your work on vdw. Vdw himself said there are fewer races in the winter of interest. I see no need for you to try looking for bets that will usually not be there. Good luck if you do decide to have a go but I wouldn't think having to go against your natural inclination would help your cause.

Good luck today
 

Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog,
sorry it's taken so long for me to get started this flat season, I took on a project in March and it ate up all of my spare time. I finally got it completed a couple of weeks ago. I thought I'd post my rating tops for VDW's race today. Ratings below.

Old Newton Cup. (1) Melting Dew, (2) Restorer, (3) Eddystone Rock, (4) Everything For You.

Good Luck Today and Best Regards
Nellsman.
 
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hedgehog

Mare
Sorry @Nellsman, I've only just seen these posts, sorry for not replying. I've been busy as well and tend only to manage to catch 5 minutes on the forum every now and then.

I hope growl wins for you as I mentioned it on another thread as a horse I thought was coming to the boil.

Good luck today and again sorry
 

Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog,
I've looked at the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton tonight, Ratings below.
(1) Aeolus, (2) Lake Volta, (3) Laugh A Minute, (4) Admirality. Sorry I'm putting up four, but I'm
afraid I'm not clever enough to split them. The ratings are very tight.

Good Luck Today and best Regards
Nellsman.
 

hedgehog

Mare
You almost got that one @Nellsman, a very creditable 2nd. Well done

I'm currently not looking at races myself, a bit too tired to do them justice, but am putting together a simple spreadsheet for an old boy I know. He currently bets tips, his favourite colour and jockey. I'm hoping to tempt him to the dark side of looking at form but am starting off with something really simple, lto no of runners/finishing position and taking the best 3.I can get the strike rate but not the profitability yet. I'd not like to give him fools gold but need to keep things simple. I'll keep working on it.

Have you made any progress lately? Or is vdw still like looking through smoke?

Have a good day and good luck
 

mickeddy

Colt
2-10 Market Rasen
Longhouse Safe*
St Gallen*
Fransham
Valentino Dancer
Hard to split these but I'd stick to the way I have them. Could be the kiss of death for them all mind you. Good luck guys.
 

hedgehog

Mare
sorry about your race @mickeddy, I'm sure it is just a blip and your winning will continue from now on.

Looked at 5 races for the old boy, just getting the numbers, 3 were playable

3.30 Ripon
Mutamaded
Koeman
Everything for you won 7/1

Newmarket 3.50
Indeed won 3/1f
Global gift
Alternative fact jt 3d 3rd 8/1
Apex king jt 3rd

Market rasen 3.55
Follow the bear won 11/8f
Present ranger jt 2nd nr
Morraman jt 2nd nr

I don't expect to do any better than Mickeddy but he made an effort so the least I can do in appreciation is do the same

10 pts out

16.63pts in

Profit on the day 6.63pts and 3 races from 3

Good luck today
 
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Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog,
the answer to your question is yes, I have made some headway and I'm getting winners, but at very skinny prices. It is worthwhile however, but you need to put in the work. That part of VDW's equation is certainly true (Hard Work). I'll keep on keeping on, I've been hunting the end of the rainbow for forty years, funny thing is I probably had it cracked years ago but didn't follow through. Back in the nineties I studied the Boxing Day examples provided by VDW and I made a note then of the attributes in the form of Stray Shot and Zamandra. Study these two and compare the form to the form of the runners given in the early selections thread, you will not fail to note the similarities. I have to say I owe a lot to the help given by a member of this forum, his help and encouragement have really made a great difference to my betting, I will never be able to repay his generosity and I will be forever grateful. I don't want to give the impression that I know it all, nothing could be further from the truth, but I do feel that I am following a narrow path now. And yes sometimes I stray and mess things up, it's all part of the learning curve and I suspect that it will perpetually be a work in progress.

Good Luck and Best Regards
Nellsman
 

hedgehog

Mare
Well done @Nellsman, from what you say you haven't completely cracked it but are miles ahead of me. Well done again. I'll check out stray shot and zamandra when I have a bit of time.

It sounds like you're making a profit which is a very select club to be in and well deserved

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
Never like to finish the day on a winner but rather feed my general thought that I'm crap at racing by getting a loser.

Haydock 8.00
Somewhere secret 2nd 3/1f
Show palace
Red stripes

Of the 5 races I got the numbers on today got 5/5. As I said I've got the strike rate but over the last 4 days I'm still down

Out 13pts
In 16.63pts
Profit on the day 3.63pts

Races 3/4 as expected but still a good day though still about 7pts down overall.



Good luck this evening
 
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hedgehog

Mare
Looked at 3 races last night, 2 playable, for the old boy's spreadsheet

Tipperary 4.30
Killaney court
Reach up
Mrs lovett

Curragh 5.30
Shakespeare's gallery
Conrow
Trussachs

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
That was 2 losing races from 2. Monday was 2 winning playable races from 2 and a small profit. Today was 1 winning playable race from 2. As said I can get the strike rate but not the profitability.

I need something very simple to reduce the number of bets as at present I have a minimum of 3 per race.

It can't be complicated as the old boy hasn't really used spreadsheets and at present he can get the information needed in about 10 minutes per race. I can do it in 5 and update the spreadsheet in less than 10.

Any simple suggestions would be gratefully received

Good luck tomorrow
 

hedgehog

Mare
Three for the old boy's spreadsheet today

Ascot 2.25
Rectory road
Wings of time jt 2nd
Sash jt 2nd

Newcastle 2.45
Defence treaty
Breanski
Honest Albert

Newmarket 4.00
Pass the vino
Swindler
Dominus

Good luck today
 

hedgehog

Mare
A couple of 2nds yesterday but no winners

For today

Pontefract 4.30
Tricky dicky nr
Magical effect 3rd 11/4f
Highly sprung won 6/1

Uttoxeter 3.35 abandoned
Western miller
Asockastar
Court duty

By another approach using OR and lto SP which is a bit more complicated but I think the old boy could easily do

Pontefract 4.30
Diamond dougal up
Musharrif 2nd 8/1
Tricky dicky nr

Uttoxetter 3.35 abandoned
Sizing codalco
Theinval
Sizing granite

I've back tracked the new approach over the past week and it has a better strike rate and better odds. It's a simple variation on a thread I've already done which failed so not sure if I'm hopeful

Good luck today
 
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retriever

Filly
Ahh, the Pareto principle, also known as the 80/20 rule, is a good basis for most decisions and applications.....

I was thinking about this the other day when I was reminded that the Earth was 71% water - 29% land.........melting ice caps and all that.......gulp!!
 

hedgehog

Mare
Good idea @Ferdy. At this point I'm trying for an sp profit with a good strike rate but failing.

Good comment @retriever pareto is good and if I could think of a way of incorporating it in the selection method I would.

On the 3rd incarnation of the old boy spreadsheet, a bit more complicated but doable with the right website

Market rasen 3.00 court duty
Galway 4.30 bletchley castle
Chester 4.50 gabrial the tiger

I think the 4.30 is pissing a point away but I'll let it run.

Thanks for the help

Good luck today
 
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