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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog,
you're still going strong. keep on keeping on. l've looked at the two big handicaps today (The Bunbury Cup at Newmarket and The John Smiths Cup at York. I'll start with The Bunbury Cup.

1:40 Newmarket. (1) Firmament, (2) Tupi, (3) Makzeem, (4) Gilgamesh.
The above race is a bit of a conundrum for me. Tupi gets his rating from Meydan and I am not confident about the form from there, however my crosscheck confirms his rating, so I need to let it stand. There are also some unexposed horses that have the potential to show improvement and it would be no surprise to see any of them in the frame, it's very difficult to get a handle on horses such as Mukalal and we leave them out at our peril. However my top rated (Firmament) is well clear on my ratings. His last two runs could both be excused, but he strikes me as a 6 year old who may be running out of excuses before his connections decide to drop him.If he doesn't show some form today it will be no surprise to see him competing in lesser events. I'm having a Mtoto bet on Firmament to half stakes.

3:40 York. (1) Another Touch, (2) Master Carpenter, (3) What's The Story, (4) Master The World.
Once more this is a very difficult race to sort out. Dash Of Spice is just outside my top ratings. I'm not sure about the jockey change, but it must be a negative in my view. Dash Of Spice is a young improving horse, in VDW terms it is probably the class/form horse. There are other progressive hoses in the race even the 6 year old Appeared is relatively unexposed, but Dash Of Spice looks the most probable winner to me.
I'm having a Mtoto bet on the previous winner of this race Master Carpenter.

Good Luck Today and Regards
Nellsman
 

hedgehog

Mare
Sorry about your bets @Nellsman, you'll get the money back I'm sure. Again you've picked a couple of big, tough races. I chickened out of looking at them when I saw the field sizes.

Good luck tomorrow
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

Looked at another race out of boredom

Hamilton 7.00, mujassam, zanetto, hee haw, cameo star

Just getting the winner in this race would be nice but I'll not be betting

Good luck today

Another 1 2 3 but that's not difficult if you pick 4 horses in a 6 horse race. Nice to get the winner though

Good luck tomorrow
 
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hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

Rated 3 races today, all in Ireland

Killarney 3.00, elleval, katiymann, tony the gent, georgian bay, atlas
Killarney 3.30, clear skies, panstarr, petticoat, hence, ship of dreams X
Sligo 4.45, graineyhill, all's quiet, Hugo n taz, draycott place X

Good luck today

0/3 today, best I got was 2x2nd. A poor day

Good luck tomorrow
 
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hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

Rated 1 race today

Ayr 4.05, mythical madness, brother McGonagall, vale of Kent, Presidential

My hopes are with mythical madness

Good luck today

Got the winner in my shortlist but my hopes were dashed
 
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hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

Rated the 8.00 Killarney and have rock the world, don't touch it, bel Ami de sivola, azzuri and our dougal

My hopes are with rock the world

Good luck today

Got the 1 2 3 but my hopes were dashed again
 
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hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

Rated 2 races today

Hamilton 7.20, George Bowen, hoof it, poyle Vinnie, the great wall, golden steps
Newbury 3.05, mistress quickly, lady bergamot, rococo, saving grace

My hopes are with lady bergamot

Good luck today
 

Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog,
just a quick word to say I'm off to Gairloch on a camping trip and won't be posting for at least a week. The batteries are in dire need of a re-charge. Good luck while I'm gone, hopefully you'll get a few winners.

best regards
Nellsman
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

Have a good holiday @Nellsman

Thanks @Lexicon, just got lucky but the wheels fell off my hope 1 furlong out

Curragh 3.10, casimiro, georgian bay, kailee, mayaadeen, red avenger
Curragh 4.55, larchmont lad, so beloved, St Patrick's day
Newbury 3.00, Bacchus, projection, invincible army, equilateral, yafta
Newbury 4.45, rebel assault, homeopathic, ceilidh's dream, melodies
Newmarket 5.10, sea fox, hakeem, rogue

My hopes are with so beloved and maybe sea fox

Good luck today

3/5 in fact 3x1 2 but my hopes were dashed. The ratings are doing fine, it's my form reading that is rubbish. I think I'll be picking pairs until I find out were I'm going wrong

Good luck tomorrow
 
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hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

Curragh 2.55, Caspian Prince, Washington DC, mabs cross, battle of Jericho, declarationofpeace
Curragh 3.30, I'm so fancy, magical, September
Curragh 4.05, terzetto, artistic melody, bona fide
Curragh 4.40, pearl of the west, sandymount duke, cliffs of dooneen, she's a star

Looked at past results and the more qualifiers I have in my shortlist, the less likely it is to catch the winner. I suppose that is just showing the more competitive the race the more likely a unforseen result.

Good luck today

3/4 and 2x1 2. A good day for the ratings

Good luck tomorrow
 
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Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog,
you're doing well. Just back from my hols and catching up. Looking at the result of the big handicap at Ascot on Saturday, I can't figure why Burnt Sugar was so big in the betting. Was there anything amiss pre-race? I can't see why he was a 20/1 shot.

Thanks in Advance and Regards
Nellsman
 

Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog,
I've rated the 10 furlong handicap at Goodwood, ratings below.

(1) Dark Red, (2) Afaak, (3) Not So Sleepy.

This race has a few progressive young horses running and I think it would be folly to bet against them. However I'm having a small bet win/loaded place on Not So Sleepy.

Good Luck Today and Regards
Nellsman
 

Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog, I've looked at the staying handicap at Goodwood, ratings below.

Goodwood 1:50 (1) Coeur De Lion, (2) Kloud Gate, (3) Great Sound.

There is a fly in the ointment in the shape of Lil Rockerfeller. I haven't got an up to date rating for him, but even if he runs up to his old flat form he could go close. And to cap it all there are also some improving 4 year old's in the mix.
Great Sound has never ran over this sort of distance. His recent form is poor, but he has had a wind op and he may be capable of better.
I'm having a small win/loaded place bet.

Good Luck and Regards
Nellsman.
 

Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog,
pushed for time this morning, but managed to get the mile handicap rated. Ratings below.

Goodwood 3:00 (1) Firmament, (2) Shady McCoy, (3) Master The World, (4) Hors De Combat.

A few things to consider with this race, a high draw seems to be a very big disadvantage and once more there are progressive 4 year old's
to be considered. Firmament is well on top on my ratings but it looks like the stable fancy is Escobar. A fascinating race and one for
watching only.

Good Luck and Regards
Nellsman.
 

Nellsman

Filly
Hi @hedgehog,
I've rated a couple of races today. Ratings below.

Goodwood 2:25 (1) Arch Villain, (2) Soldier In Action, (3) Sir Chauvelin.

This looks a very good race, I have to admit I was surprised by the ratings. Both Soldier In Action and Arch Villain ratings are from last season.
Soldier In Action is trying to win this again and while his form has been nowhere near his best, he has a top pilot and that is a big advantage at this course. While the jockey on Arch Villain ?? well I've never heard of him. After the top 2, the ratings are very tight and it also looks like there are 2 very progressive 4 year old's in the race with very good recent form. I wouldn't like to get on the wrong side of them.

Doncaster 4:05 (1) Restorer, (2) Von Blucher, (3) Erik The Red.

Erik The Red is attempting a repeat of last seasons win, he has ran well FTO but has never won FTO. I think the trainer would probably
have liked to get a run into him. I'm not sure if he'll like the drying ground. Von Blucher has not been running well recently. Again there are a couple of fly's in the ointment in the shape of Aasheq who is 4th on the ratings and has very good recent form (I would not be betting against him) and To Dibba who is coming back after being gelded.

Good Luck and Regards
Nellsman
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello @Nellsman ,

I'm sorry for not responding but I've not been looking at the forum, I've been struggling with my form reading and it isn't going well. Thank you for keeping the thread alive with your ratings and comments, I've not long read them and they are much appreciated. I bet aasheq but it came to nought. Please keep posting while I'm trying to work out when and what to bet.

Thanks again

Good luck today
 
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