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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Wed Cheltenham

1.30
SYSTEM.......................................................................STATS
SAMCRO.......................................................................ditto
NEXT DESTINATION................................................ditto

2.10
*BLACK CORTON.......................................................BLACK CORTON
MONALEE....................................................................MONALEE
*ELEGANT ESCAPE...................................................PRESENTING PERCY

2.50
*TOPOFTHEGAME......................................................BASTIEN
WILLIAM HENRY
ROYAL VACATION

4.50
*MITCHOUKA...............................................................PADDLEYOUROWNCANOE
LOOK MY WAY...........................................................BRAVE DANCING
NUBE NEGRA


Be lucky
 
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Sorry @Tom O'Brien,
should have been 3 winners actually with Glenloe just touched off. I thought he should have won, but that's the way it goes.
I'm away this weekend for a family wedding down in Manchester, so I won't be posting. Good luck at Cheltenham tomorrow and over the weekend.

Regards
Nellsman.
 
Sorry @Tom O'Brien,
should have been 3 winners actually with Glenloe just touched off. I thought he should have won, but that's the way it goes.
I'm away this weekend for a family wedding down in Manchester, so I won't be posting. Good luck at Cheltenham tomorrow and over the weekend.

Regards
Nellsman.
Yeah, Glenloe should have won! How have you been doing yourself at C? If Might Bite wins the GC I will be a very happy bunny, as he ties up few nice doubles,trebles etc.
 
Toughest day of the 4 today, I think.

1.30
MR ADJUDICATOR
REDICEAN
APPLES SHIKIRA

2.10
SMAOINEAMH ALAINN
BEN DUNDEE
DUCA DE THAIX

2.50
CHEF DE OBEAUX
CHRIS'S DREAM
SANTINI

3.30
MIGHT BITE*
KILULTAGH VIC
ROAD TO RESPECT

4.10
WONDERFUL CHARM*
VIRAK
FOXROCK

4.50
BURROWS SAINT
BRELAN D'AS
FLAWLESS ESCAPE

GOOD LUCK TODAY
 
Hi @Hedgehog,
it's been a long winter but the flat season has arrived at last. I've rated a few races I'll post them below. Hopefully I'll do as
well as @Tom O'Brien did at Cheltenham, but it's tough at the start of the season.

Doncaster 2:25 (1) Sir Roderic, (2) Georgian Bay, (3) Brilliant Vanguard, (4) Sands Chorus.
Doncaster 3:35 (1) Bravery, (2) Gabrial, (3) Donncha, (4) Mitchum Swagger.
Lingfield 3:10 (1) My Target, (2) Chevallier.
Lingfield 3:45 (1) Encore D'or, (2) George Dryden.
I've also looked at a couple of other decent races at Doncaster (note that my ratings only apply to handicaps)
Doncaster 1:50 Lancelot Du Lac is fit and well and that should help him to run well here.
Doncaster 3:00 Tabarrak comes out best for me if he can handle the ground.

Good Luck and Regards.
Nellsman.
 
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Hello all,

I've now developed my mk5 spreadsheet, weeding out factors that have little impact and incorporating my other spreadsheet based on OR. I've added a third means of determining a probability based on sp/rn and averaged the 3 probabilities to get a final value. Yesterday my favourite was beau bay which came a close 2nd.

Today I've looked at 2 races as I have the time. 3.25 Taunton my favourite is royal act but I don't like it's form. It beat the favourite lto but not a good favourite. That's a pass. 3.15 market rasen my favourite is hear the chimes which has better form, lto beaten by birch hill, 16s, which was dropping 12k in class so had reason to win. HTC is unproven with the weight but both wins have come rh and came 2nd in this race last year. Another pass but I'll not be surprised if HTC wins

Good luck today
 
Hi @hedgehog,
I've rated some handicaps today, ratings below.

Lingfield 1:30 (1) Mythical Madness, (2) Suzi's Connoisseur, (3) Take The Helm.
Newcastle 3:20 (1) Stargazer, (2) Eye Of The Storm, (3) Velvet Revolution.
Bath 4:00 (1) Sir Roderic, (2) Tony Curtis, (3) First Selection.

Good luck with your spreadsheet, it will be interesting to see how it performs. I'll keep an eye on your posts.
Good Luck Today and Regards
Nellsman.
 
Hi @hedgehog,
I've rated some decent handicaps today, ratings below.
1:50 Musselburgh (1) Twin Appeal, (2) Masham Star, (3) Lualiwa.
3:35 Musselburgh (1) Clever Cookie, (2) Euchen Glen, (3) Night Of Glory.
4:20 Kempton (1) Battersea, (2) Fire Fighting, (3) Eddystone Rock.

Good Luck Today and regards
Nellsman.
 
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