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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Thanks Graeme Graeme

you had the winner and 3rd in your list markfinn markfinn, well done

I've looked at the 3.50 Doncaster and was fully expecting a swerve but looking at the form I've bet upsilon bleu, race fit, lto over wrong distance and going yet still came a good 2nd, cd 2/3, going and distance 12121. Well supported by the market going in from 13/2 this morning. I'm hopeful this is my 2nd rung

Good luck today
 
Thanks markfinn markfinn and Graeme Graeme

jm77 jm77, we were both wrong on that one, didn't seem to like the race at all and totally flummoxed me. As Chesham would say sh*t happens. Still I think I learned something so not a complete loss

Good luck tomorrow
 
Helloall,

looked at the 2.10 down royal as I had the time and think blue empyrean the likely winner at reasonable odds but I'll swerve this race as it can be worked out but is not obvious

Good luck today
 
Helloall,

got lucky there

was going to apply the same logic to an evening race but the only decent one is the 5.45 Newcastle which is a 3yo only race. I've not given it a full evaluation but Windsor cross looks like an obvious selection by the logic buoyed up by 2/3 over CD and a staying on strongly win in a c3 lto. The weight is a query, 9st 13lbs is a lot but wc managed to get into this race only due to the new handicap rules.

Good luck today
 
Hello all,

looked at the 3.35 and will try to look at the common race later if I have time.

The 3.35 I started off being sweet on kayf adventure but its lto form doesn't stack up and its unproven with the weight. Applying the logic I come to grand vision but the supporting factors are a bit weak in comparison to others in the race.

It's grand vision but a swerve as there are more consistent animals in the race

good luck today
 
Thanks mickeddy mickeddy and J Jimbo

looked at the 8.00 dundalk but it is a 7f race so already a swerve. I just looked at the form and got it down to beach bar and geological. Bb is the better and has supporting factors, CD 1/1, jockey 1/2, weight ok as won with 10st. Negatives are coming from a condition race but was a clear 2nd there against a horse with a massive AR and it's 7f.

I can see why bb is favourite but it's a swerve

Good luck today
 
Hello all,

looked at the 3.10 Musselburgh and was tempted by Cresswell legend which is highly consistent. 2nd favourite on both my tissues. Favourite on one is beeves and the other stamp your feet. Cl beat syf lto when it dropped in class so I've discounted syf. Beeves is highly consistent as well and 5lbs well in on its chase form, won 3 times after an extended break and for weights 11st 11lbs or higher run 8 times and won 6. Too scary so a swerve.

Good luck today
G
 
Beeves is highly consistent as well and 5lbs well in on its chase form

Presumably from comparing the chase OR of 147 to its hurdles 142?

I reckon there is 7lb difference between the two. RPR has 14lb on average, but I allow half.

See the winner, won 138, chase rating 145.
 
Hi Hedgehog,
I've been looking at this race and have no top rated. However I have a short list of;
Midnight Target
Colin's Brother
Creep Desbois
Good luck if you play.
 
Thanks markfinn markfinn and ARAZI91 ARAZI91

mickeddy mickeddy, seems our work is in vain, Ludlow have abandoned due to frozen ground.

I've looked at the 4.00 Chelmsford and got it down to 2, captain lars and dutiful son as the rest have poor records in c4s. I like captain lars on form and dutiful son on supporting factors. I think either a book of the pair or a swerve is called for, I think the latter.

Good luck today
 
Hi hedgehog hedgehog,
sorry I've been absent for so long, I'm hoping now to contribute regularly. I've rated the 2:55 Lingfield. Ratings below.
(1) Forceful Appeal (101), (2) My Target (98), (3) Franco's Secret (94).

good luck today
Nellsman
 
Thanks mickeddy mickeddy

Nellsman Nellsman, you got 2nd and 3rd so well done

looked at a c5 at wolves, 8.15, and think I can work out the winner in tan arabiq which 2 for 5 in c5s at wolves and if you reduce that to 12f the form is 12. It is dropping from a c4 today.

Acker bilk is 0 for 3 in the class and restless wave 1 for 6.

I've bet tan arabiq which I considered should have a 4/1 minimum acceptable odds and got 11/2.

Good luck today
 
Hello dicko14 dicko14, I did a quick check of dickos yesterday and if you require the selection to have a minimum strike rate of 20% you lose an awful lot of losers. Probably teaching my grannie to suck eggs there.

Good luck today
 
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