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VDW hedgehog/stubble - trying to get lucky

Hi hedgehog hedgehog,
it's been a while since I've posted on your thread, I'm just getting back into form study after a long layoff. I've looked at the class 2 handicap at Haydock today (1:45) but it's cut up badly. The horse I like best here is Motagally. He ran second on his reappearance and already that race has produced a winner. I think he's decent value at 5/1 and I've had a small bet on him.

Good Luck Today.
 
Hi hedgehog hedgehog,
no, it should be me that's sorry for putting up such a poor evaluation. I'll try harder in future.

Good Luck Today.
 

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Nellsman Nellsman , no post is a bad post. You made a sensible case it just didn't work out on the day, horse's aren't machines and something simple could have disturbed your horse. Keep on keeping on, I'm sure you're closer to the key than me.

Good luck
 
I've been thinking, always a bad thing, you can define a consistent run if the horse was beaten by less lengths than its finishing position. Today in the 2.25 Newcastle Caspian prince has previously had 3 consistent runs. El hombre has multiple consistent runs. Obviously winning is a consistent run so magical spirit had 3 previous consistent runs. Just putting the idea out there.
 
I'll change that idea slightly. If the horse was beaten add one to the beaten lengths and see if it's smaller than the finishing position. If the horse won take one away from the winning lengths and see if that is bigger than zero.

I think I read somewhere that the average winning lengths is 1 so if that applies to distances between horse's, big assumption, then the above rules mean the horse is bucking the average.

Caspian prince fulfils the new rules and if I apply my form horse rules it's last 3 runs were consistent form runs.

I can see either that is rubbish or I've finally had an original idea
 
hi hedgehog hedgehog,
I've worked a couple of Handicaps today, it looks like a good days racing with some form to work with. I haven't got any completely sorted, but I've got a couple that I'm having a dutch.

Haydock 2:40 Shelir and Alternative Fact. Both available at 5/1 at the moment.
Epsom 5:35 Hateya, Magical Wish and Muntadab. Available at 5's, 7's and 16/1.

Good Luck Today
 
I see where you're coming from with Hateya, nearly won this last year when worth a lot more prize money. On OR that also looked a slightly higher class race. He's highly tried but maybe class 4 is where he is happiest?
 
Good luck Nellsman Nellsman with your selections, I'm hoping the met at least places in the 2.40

I think both you and mjay mjay have made rapid strides in your understanding, I look forward to congratulating you both on your winners.

Good luck and stay well
 
Hi everybody,

hope youre all well !

not strictly vdw as such, but i thought i would ask here ( im sure hedge wont mind )

how much does the subscription to HRB cost......per week? per month?.....whatever

cheers.
 
Hi hedgehog hedgehog,
nothing interests me today as a serious bet. I'm having a small bet of EW doubles and trebles on the following.
2:25 Newbury. Afaak
3:15 Newmarket Glen Coco, Clareyblue.
4:00 Doncaster Oh This Is Us, Blackheath.
4:35 Doncaster Orvar, Line Of Reason.

Good Luck Today.
 
Some good horse's there Nellsman Nellsman , I hope your efforts reap rewards though I think doubles and trembles are a bit dodgy, better you have win singles or ew singles as the bookies don't like those bets and anything the bookies don't like has got to be good.

Stay well and good luck
 
Yeah hedgehog hedgehog,
I agree, it's not worth a serious bet, but I like to dabble, only if in pennies when I'm watching the racing. Today wasn't serious stuff
and I had a couple of beers and had a relaxing afternoon.

Regards
Nellsman
 
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