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Greater than 3pt spread

hedgehog

Mare
I remembered being told years ago about a greater than 3pt spread in odds between favourite and 2nd favourite or 2nd fav and 3rd. Last night there was a 5pt spread between el ghazwani at evens fav and the 2nd fav at 6/1.

Looking a few minutes ago in the 6.45 Newcastle I know how has a big spread and in the 7.15 haddaf and wasntexpectingthat have the spread to the third fav
 

dave58

Administrator
Hi @hedgehog ,funnily enough I have actually got hadaaf as my only bet today, however personally I would not be influenced by the market.
If I did follow the market, I know the first one has already won, but on the face of it and without even looking at the form I have to admit that an each way bet on a 6/1 second favourite sounds like the value bet.?
 
Last edited:

hedgehog

Mare
Wasntexpectingthat wins 11/4

@dave58, I didn't look at the races at all except to look at the odds spread. It was explained to me that when the odds show the spread the bookies aren't taking any chances with the horses on the short side of the spread.

@Ferdy, which race are you referring to please?

For tomorrow

Exeter
1.50 midnight tune
3.20 johnbb and eceparti
3.50 urtheonethatiwant

Hereford
12.40 massini's dream and special princess
1.40 frisson collonges and steal a march

Wolverhampton
5.25 Qatar Queen

A few odds on shots there but a profit on the day will be the test. 9 points out at this point.

Good luck tomorrow
 

dave58

Administrator
Wasntexpectingthat wins 11/4

@dave58, I didn't look at the races at all except to look at the odds spread. It was explained to me that when the odds show the spread the bookies aren't taking any chances with the horses on the short side of the spread.
@hedgehog, if you turn that logic upside down it then means that you are therefore getting bad value following these because the bookies will be offering lower odds than they 'should' be , ergo you have got a reasonable laying system using this method.

I won't be following this for the above reasons, but I hope you will prove me wrong and make a profit using this idea : all I would suggest is that you paper trade it for a while before risking your hard earned on it.

Whatever the outcome thanks for sharing, it's certainly provided some discussion.
 

hedgehog

Mare
@dave58, I'm not going to expend any cash on this idea I'm just a bit bored this evening and though it was an idea worth testing. It made a profit today but I'm quite happy to accept that as a fluke. I doubt the same will happen tomorrow. Sorry you don't feel the short trial is worth following but you're probably right and it's doomed.

@Ferdy, sorry I'm particularly dense this evening, a bit tired and in need of a sleep. Were you making a joke as W was a lto winner so not totally surprising? If it was a joke, I'm very sorry for not realising though you are a witty guy so I really should have known.

Good luck tomorrow
 

Ferdy

Colt
@dave58, I'm not going to expend any cash on this idea I'm just a bit bored this evening and though it was an idea worth testing. It made a profit today but I'm quite happy to accept that as a fluke. I doubt the same will happen tomorrow. Sorry you don't feel the short trial is worth following but you're probably right and it's doomed.

@Ferdy, sorry I'm particularly dense this evening, a bit tired and in need of a sleep. Were you making a joke as W was a lto winner so not totally surprising? If it was a joke, I'm very sorry for not realising though you are a witty guy so I really should have known.

Good luck tomorrow
I was just surprised tha Hadaaf ran such a bad race, I was convinced that it was a two horse race.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks @Ferdy for explaining, at first I thought my ignorance had offended.

@dave58, so far the result aren't making a profit nor would it be safe to lay the selections, all in all totally useless. Your warning was well founded

Good luck today
 
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