• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
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    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
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    AR

Greater than 3pt spread

hedgehog

Mare
I remembered being told years ago about a greater than 3pt spread in odds between favourite and 2nd favourite or 2nd fav and 3rd. Last night there was a 5pt spread between el ghazwani at evens fav and the 2nd fav at 6/1.

Looking a few minutes ago in the 6.45 Newcastle I know how has a big spread and in the 7.15 haddaf and wasntexpectingthat have the spread to the third fav
 

dave58

Administrator
Hi hedgehog hedgehog ,funnily enough I have actually got hadaaf as my only bet today, however personally I would not be influenced by the market.
If I did follow the market, I know the first one has already won, but on the face of it and without even looking at the form I have to admit that an each way bet on a 6/1 second favourite sounds like the value bet.?
 
Last edited:

hedgehog

Mare
Wasntexpectingthat wins 11/4

dave58 dave58, I didn't look at the races at all except to look at the odds spread. It was explained to me that when the odds show the spread the bookies aren't taking any chances with the horses on the short side of the spread.

Ferdy Ferdy, which race are you referring to please?

For tomorrow

Exeter
1.50 midnight tune
3.20 johnbb and eceparti
3.50 urtheonethatiwant

Hereford
12.40 massini's dream and special princess
1.40 frisson collonges and steal a march

Wolverhampton
5.25 Qatar Queen

A few odds on shots there but a profit on the day will be the test. 9 points out at this point.

Good luck tomorrow
 

dave58

Administrator
Wasntexpectingthat wins 11/4

dave58 dave58, I didn't look at the races at all except to look at the odds spread. It was explained to me that when the odds show the spread the bookies aren't taking any chances with the horses on the short side of the spread.
hedgehog hedgehog, if you turn that logic upside down it then means that you are therefore getting bad value following these because the bookies will be offering lower odds than they 'should' be , ergo you have got a reasonable laying system using this method.

I won't be following this for the above reasons, but I hope you will prove me wrong and make a profit using this idea : all I would suggest is that you paper trade it for a while before risking your hard earned on it.

Whatever the outcome thanks for sharing, it's certainly provided some discussion.
 

hedgehog

Mare
dave58 dave58, I'm not going to expend any cash on this idea I'm just a bit bored this evening and though it was an idea worth testing. It made a profit today but I'm quite happy to accept that as a fluke. I doubt the same will happen tomorrow. Sorry you don't feel the short trial is worth following but you're probably right and it's doomed.

Ferdy Ferdy, sorry I'm particularly dense this evening, a bit tired and in need of a sleep. Were you making a joke as W was a lto winner so not totally surprising? If it was a joke, I'm very sorry for not realising though you are a witty guy so I really should have known.

Good luck tomorrow
 

Ferdy

Colt
dave58 dave58, I'm not going to expend any cash on this idea I'm just a bit bored this evening and though it was an idea worth testing. It made a profit today but I'm quite happy to accept that as a fluke. I doubt the same will happen tomorrow. Sorry you don't feel the short trial is worth following but you're probably right and it's doomed.

Ferdy Ferdy, sorry I'm particularly dense this evening, a bit tired and in need of a sleep. Were you making a joke as W was a lto winner so not totally surprising? If it was a joke, I'm very sorry for not realising though you are a witty guy so I really should have known.

Good luck tomorrow
I was just surprised tha Hadaaf ran such a bad race, I was convinced that it was a two horse race.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks Ferdy Ferdy for explaining, at first I thought my ignorance had offended.

dave58 dave58, so far the result aren't making a profit nor would it be safe to lay the selections, all in all totally useless. Your warning was well founded

Good luck today
 
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